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PROPERTY ANALYTICS

Climate Risk Profile: Curtin, ACT

Curtin, Australian Capital Territory· UNKNOWN
Medium Risk
Updated Mar 2026

Curtin faces moderate risks from flooding, bushfires, and heatwaves, which are projected to increase with climate change. As an inland suburb, coastal risks are negligible. Residents should prepare for more frequent extreme weather events.

Overall Risk Score

5.2/10
Medium

Confidence: Medium

Hazard Breakdown

Flood
4.5
Bushfire
6.0
Heat
5.0
Coastal
1.0

Detailed Hazard Analysis

heat Risk

5.0/10

Curtin is experiencing an increase in the frequency and intensity of heatwaves. This poses a risk to vulnerable populations, particularly the elderly and those with pre-existing health conditions.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Climate change
  • ·Urban heat island effect

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

5.5

2050

6.0

Data source

flood Risk

4.5/10

Curtin faces a moderate risk of flooding, primarily from intense rainfall events and localised stormwater runoff. Some areas may be susceptible to flash flooding.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Urban development
  • ·Aging stormwater infrastructure

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

5.0

2050

5.5

Data source

coastal Risk

1.0/10

As an inland suburb, Curtin has a very low risk from coastal hazards such as sea level rise and coastal erosion.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Distance from coast

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

1.0

2050

1.0

Data source

bushfire Risk

6.0/10

Curtin has a moderate to high bushfire risk due to its proximity to bushland areas. Hot, dry conditions and strong winds can exacerbate the risk during the bushfire season.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Climate change
  • ·Fuel load
  • ·Urban interface

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

6.5

2050

7.0

Data source

What This Means for Property Owners

Insurance Outlook

Insurance premiums may increase due to the rising risks of flooding, bushfires, and heatwaves.

Price Impact

Properties in high-risk areas may experience a decrease in value due to climate change impacts.

Buyer Checklist

  • 1.Check flood maps and bushfire overlays.
  • 2.Assess property's vulnerability to heatwaves.
  • 3.Review insurance coverage for climate-related risks.
  • 4.Consider energy efficiency and water conservation measures.

Local Climate Evidence

Flood Evidence

Nearest Waterway
Yarralumla Creek
Elevation Range
580-620m
Flood Zone
Areas near Yarralumla Creek may be subject to flooding.

Localised flooding can occur during heavy rainfall events, particularly in low-lying areas.

View council flood map

Bushfire Evidence

Distance to Bushland
Adjacent to Red Hill Nature Reserve
Planning Overlay
Check ACT Emergency Services Agency website for current bushfire overlays.
Bushfire Prone Area
Yes

The proximity to Red Hill Nature Reserve increases the bushfire risk for properties bordering the reserve.

Heat Evidence

Avg January Max Temp
28.5°C
Heat Stress Days/Year
3 days

Heatwaves are becoming more frequent and intense, posing health risks to vulnerable populations.

Coastal Evidence

Distance to Coast
150 km
Sea Level Rise Exposure
Not applicable
Erosion Risk
Not applicable

Historical Climate Events

2003
bushfireCatastrophic

The 2003 Canberra bushfires caused widespread damage and loss of life in the region, impacting nearby suburbs.

Source
2018
heatwaveModerate

A prolonged heatwave in January 2018 resulted in increased hospital admissions and strain on infrastructure.

Source
2022
floodModerate

Heavy rainfall caused localised flooding in parts of Canberra, including areas near Curtin.

Source

Climate Outlook to 2050

Projections based on CSIRO and BOM climate modelling. Scenario: RCP4.5

HazardToday20302050
flood4.54.7(+0.2)5.0(+0.5)
bushfire6.06.4(+0.4)6.7(+0.7)
heat5.05.3(+0.3)5.9(+0.9)
coastal1.01.01.0

Under a moderate emissions scenario, Curtin is projected to experience a slight increase in overall climate risk, with notable increases in bushfire and heatwave risks.

CSIRO Climate Projections

Adaptation Recommendations

Improve stormwater infrastructure

Near-term

Upgrade stormwater drainage systems to handle increased rainfall intensity and reduce the risk of localised flooding.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Implement bushfire management strategies

Immediate

Conduct regular fuel reduction burns and maintain firebreaks in surrounding bushland to reduce the risk of bushfires.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Develop a heatwave preparedness plan

Near-term

Establish cooling centers and provide information to vulnerable residents on how to stay safe during heatwaves.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

Promote water conservation

Long-term

Encourage residents to conserve water through rebates and education programs to reduce strain on water resources during droughts.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

About Curtin's Climate Risk Profile

Curtin, located in the Australian Capital Territory, is increasingly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. The primary risks include flooding from intense rainfall, bushfires due to its proximity to bushland, and heatwaves affecting vulnerable populations.

Flooding is a concern due to increased rainfall intensity and potential stormwater runoff issues. Bushfire risk is elevated during hot, dry periods, particularly with strong winds. Heatwaves are becoming more frequent and intense, posing health risks to residents.

While coastal risks are minimal due to its inland location, the suburb needs to focus on adaptation strategies to mitigate the effects of flooding, bushfires, and heatwaves. These strategies include improving stormwater infrastructure, managing fuel loads in surrounding bushland, and implementing heatwave preparedness plans.

Long-term climate projections indicate that these risks will continue to increase, highlighting the importance of proactive measures to protect the community and infrastructure. Residents should stay informed about local emergency plans and take steps to prepare their homes and families for extreme weather events.

Data sources: BOM · CSIRO · ACT Emergency Services Agency · ACT Environment and Planning Directorate

Local Government Resources

ACT Government

Climate StrategyFlood MapsEmergency Services

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the main climate change risks in Curtin?

The main climate change risks in Curtin are flooding from increased rainfall, bushfires due to proximity to bushland, and heatwaves affecting vulnerable populations.

How can I prepare my home for a bushfire in Curtin?

You can prepare your home for a bushfire by clearing vegetation around your property, maintaining firebreaks, and having a bushfire survival plan.

Where can I find information about flood risks in Curtin?

You can find information about flood risks in Curtin on the ACT Environment and Planning Directorate website.

What is the council doing to address climate change in Curtin?

The ACT Government is implementing a range of climate change mitigation and adaptation strategies, including reducing greenhouse gas emissions, improving stormwater infrastructure, and managing bushfire risks.

How can I stay safe during a heatwave in Curtin?

During a heatwave, stay indoors in air-conditioned environments, drink plenty of water, and avoid strenuous activities. Check on vulnerable neighbours and family members.

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