Climate Risk Profile: Florey, ACT

Florey, Australian Capital Territory· 2615

Medium Risk

Updated Mar 2026

Florey is a suburb in the Australian Capital Territory that faces moderate risks from flooding, bushfires, and heatwaves. Climate change is expected to exacerbate these risks in the future, requiring proactive adaptation measures.

Overall Risk Score

52/100

Medium

Confidence: Medium

Hazard Breakdown

Flood

4.5

Bushfire

6.0

Heat

5.0

Coastal

1.0

Climate Hazard Breakdown for Florey

increasing

Flood

45/100

Florey has a moderate risk of flooding, primarily from intense rainfall events and localised stormwater runoff. Some areas are more susceptible due to topography and drainage capacity.

Key drivers:

·Increased rainfall intensity
·Urban development

increasing

Bushfire

60/100

Florey faces a notable bushfire risk due to its proximity to surrounding bushland. Hot, dry conditions and strong winds can exacerbate the risk during bushfire season.

Key drivers:

·Climate change
·Fuel load

increasing

Heat

50/100

Florey is experiencing an increase in the frequency and intensity of heatwaves. This poses a risk to vulnerable populations, particularly the elderly and those with pre-existing health conditions.

Key drivers:

·Climate change
·Urban heat island effect

stable

Coastal

10/100

As a landlocked suburb, Florey has a negligible risk from coastal hazards such as sea level rise and coastal erosion.

Key drivers:

·N/A

stable

Wind

24/100

Moderate wind risk — gusty summer winds

stable

Storm

28/100

Moderate storm risk — spring/summer thunderstorms

stable

Social

18/100

Moderate social stability — high public sector

increasing

Energy

32/100

Moderate energy costs — heating and cooling

In-Depth Climate Risk Guides for Florey

Should I Buy

Property buying guide with climate risk assessment

Flood Risk

Flood zone mapping, historical events, and projections

Bushfire Risk

BAL assessment, vegetation proximity, and fire history

Climate Safety

Multi-hazard safety assessment to 2050

Storm Risk

Severe weather, hail, and wind risk analysis

Heat Risk

Extreme heat days, urban heat island, and cooling costs

Insurance Costs

Premium estimates and insurance availability

Investment Score

Climate-adjusted property investment analysis

Detailed Hazard Analysis

heat Risk

50/100

Florey is experiencing an increase in the frequency and intensity of heatwaves. This poses a risk to vulnerable populations, particularly the elderly and those with pre-existing health conditions.

Primary Drivers

·Climate change
·Urban heat island effect

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

5.5

2050

6.0

Data source

flood Risk

45/100

Florey has a moderate risk of flooding, primarily from intense rainfall events and localised stormwater runoff. Some areas are more susceptible due to topography and drainage capacity.

Primary Drivers

·Increased rainfall intensity
·Urban development
·Aging infrastructure

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

5.0

2050

5.5

Data source

coastal Risk

10/100

As a landlocked suburb, Florey has a negligible risk from coastal hazards such as sea level rise and coastal erosion.

Primary Drivers

·N/A

Projections (N/A)

2030

1.0

2050

1.0

Data source

bushfire Risk

60/100

Florey faces a notable bushfire risk due to its proximity to surrounding bushland. Hot, dry conditions and strong winds can exacerbate the risk during bushfire season.

Primary Drivers

·Climate change
·Fuel load
·Urban sprawl

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

6.5

2050

7.0

Data source

What This Means for Property Owners

Insurance Outlook

Insurance premiums may increase in the future due to increased climate risks.

Price Impact

Properties in flood-prone or bushfire-prone areas may experience a decrease in value.

Buyer Checklist

1.Check flood maps and bushfire risk assessments.
2.Assess the property's vulnerability to heatwaves.
3.Consider the potential impact of climate change on insurance premiums.
4.Inquire about local adaptation plans and initiatives.

Local Climate Evidence

Flood Evidence

Nearest Waterway: Ginninderra Creek
Elevation Range: 580-620m
Flood Zone: Areas near Ginninderra Creek are susceptible to flooding.

Bushfire Evidence

Distance to Bushland: Adjacent to open bushland reserves.
Planning Overlay: ACT Emergency Services Agency Bushfire Risk Map
Bushfire Prone Area: Yes

Heat Evidence

Avg January Max Temp: 28.5°C
Heat Stress Days/Year: 3 days

Coastal Evidence

Distance to Coast: 150 km
Sea Level Rise Exposure: Not applicable
Erosion Risk: Not applicable

Historical Climate Events

2003

bushfireCatastrophic

The 2003 Canberra bushfires caused widespread damage and loss of life in the region, impacting nearby suburbs.

Source

2018

heatwaveModerate

Canberra experienced a prolonged heatwave in January 2018, with temperatures exceeding 40 degrees Celsius for several consecutive days.

Source

2022

floodModerate

Heavy rainfall caused localized flooding in parts of Canberra, including areas near Florey.

Source

Climate Outlook to 2050

Projections based on CSIRO and BOM climate modelling. Scenario: RCP8.5

Hazard	Today	2030	2050
flood	45	4.8(+0.3)	5.1(+0.6)
bushfire	60	6.4(+0.4)	6.8(+0.8)
heat	50	5.6(+0.6)	6.5(+1.5)
coastal	10	1.0	1.0

By 2030, Florey is projected to experience a moderate increase in overall climate risk, with notable increases in heatwave frequency and intensity, as well as a slightly higher risk of flooding and bushfires.

CSIRO Climate Projections

Adaptation Recommendations

Improve stormwater drainage infrastructure

Near-term

Upgrade and maintain stormwater drainage systems to reduce the risk of localized flooding during heavy rainfall events.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Implement bushfire risk reduction measures

Immediate

Undertake fuel reduction activities, maintain firebreaks, and educate residents about bushfire preparedness.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Develop a heatwave management plan

Near-term

Establish cooling centers, provide public health advice, and support vulnerable residents during heatwave events.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

Promote water-sensitive urban design

Long-term

Incorporate water-sensitive design principles in new developments to reduce stormwater runoff and improve water quality.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

About Florey's Climate Risk Profile

Florey, located in the Belconnen district of Canberra, is a residential suburb with a mix of housing types and green spaces. The suburb's climate is characterized by warm summers and cool winters.

Flooding is a concern in some parts of Florey, particularly during periods of heavy rainfall. The local topography and stormwater drainage infrastructure play a role in determining the extent of flood risk. Bushfire risk is also present due to the suburb's proximity to bushland areas. Hot, dry conditions can increase the likelihood of bushfires impacting the community.

Heatwaves are becoming more frequent and intense in Florey, posing a health risk to vulnerable residents. The urban heat island effect can further amplify temperatures in built-up areas. Coastal risks are not relevant to Florey due to its inland location.

Addressing these climate-related risks requires a combination of mitigation and adaptation strategies. Mitigation efforts focus on reducing greenhouse gas emissions to slow down the pace of climate change. Adaptation measures aim to reduce the vulnerability of the community to the impacts of climate change.

Data sources: BOM · CSIRO · ACT Emergency Services Agency · ACT Government

Local Government Resources

ACT Government

Climate Strategy Flood Maps Emergency Services

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the main climate change risks in Florey?

Florey faces increasing risks from heatwaves, bushfires, and flooding due to climate change. These risks are projected to worsen in the future.

How can I prepare my home for a bushfire?

Clear vegetation around your home, maintain firebreaks, and have a bushfire survival plan in place. Stay informed about bushfire alerts and warnings.

What should I do during a heatwave?

Stay indoors in air-conditioned environments, drink plenty of water, and avoid strenuous activities. Check on vulnerable neighbors and family members.

Where can I find information about flood risks in Florey?

The ACT Government provides flood maps and information on its website. You can also contact the local council for advice.

What is the ACT Government doing to address climate change?

The ACT Government has a climate change strategy that includes targets for reducing greenhouse gas emissions and adapting to the impacts of climate change.