Climate Risk Profile: Forrest, ACT
Forrest is a suburb in the Australian Capital Territory that faces moderate risks from flooding, bushfires, and heatwaves. Climate change is expected to exacerbate these risks in the future. Residents should take steps to prepare for these hazards.
Overall Risk Score
Confidence: Medium
Hazard Breakdown
Climate Hazard Breakdown for Forrest
Flood
Forrest has a moderate risk of flooding, primarily from intense rainfall events. Some areas may be susceptible to flash flooding.
Key drivers:
- ·Increased rainfall intensity
- ·Urban development
Bushfire
Forrest faces a moderate to high bushfire risk due to its proximity to bushland areas. Hot, dry conditions and strong winds can exacerbate the risk.
Key drivers:
- ·Increased frequency of heatwaves
- ·Drier vegetation
Heat
Forrest is experiencing an increase in the frequency and intensity of heatwaves, posing a risk to vulnerable populations.
Key drivers:
- ·Climate change
- ·Urban heat island effect
Coastal
Forrest is not directly exposed to coastal risks.
Wind
Moderate wind risk — gusty summer winds
Storm
Moderate storm risk — spring/summer thunderstorms
Social
Moderate social stability — high public sector
Energy
Moderate energy costs — heating and cooling
In-Depth Climate Risk Guides for Forrest
Property buying guide with climate risk assessment
Flood zone mapping, historical events, and projections
BAL assessment, vegetation proximity, and fire history
Multi-hazard safety assessment to 2050
Severe weather, hail, and wind risk analysis
Extreme heat days, urban heat island, and cooling costs
Premium estimates and insurance availability
Climate-adjusted property investment analysis
Detailed Hazard Analysis
heat Risk
Forrest is experiencing an increase in the frequency and intensity of heatwaves, posing a risk to vulnerable populations.
Primary Drivers
- ·Climate change
- ·Urban heat island effect
Projections (RCP8.5)
2030
6.5
2050
7.0
flood Risk
Forrest has a moderate risk of flooding, primarily from intense rainfall events. Some areas may be susceptible to flash flooding.
Primary Drivers
- ·Increased rainfall intensity
- ·Urban development
- ·Climate change
Projections (RCP8.5)
2030
4.5
2050
5.0
coastal Risk
Forrest is not directly exposed to coastal risks.
Projections (N/A)
2030
1.0
2050
1.0
bushfire Risk
Forrest faces a moderate to high bushfire risk due to its proximity to bushland areas. Hot, dry conditions and strong winds can exacerbate the risk.
Primary Drivers
- ·Increased frequency of heatwaves
- ·Drier vegetation
- ·Climate change
Projections (RCP8.5)
2030
6.5
2050
7.0
What This Means for Property Owners
Insurance Outlook
Insurance premiums may increase due to climate risks.
Price Impact
Properties in higher-risk areas may experience a decrease in value.
Buyer Checklist
- 1.Check flood maps and bushfire prone area designations.
- 2.Assess property's vulnerability to heatwaves.
- 3.Review insurance options and potential premium increases.
- 4.Consider long-term climate risks when making purchasing decisions.
Local Climate Evidence
Flood Evidence
- Nearest Waterway
- Molonglo River
- Elevation Range
- 580-620m
- Flood Zone
- Low to Moderate
Some areas near lower-lying areas may be more susceptible to flooding.
View council flood mapBushfire Evidence
- Distance to Bushland
- Adjacent to Red Hill Nature Reserve
- Planning Overlay
- ACTmapi Bushfire Prone Areas
- Bushfire Prone Area
- Yes
Properties bordering the reserve require careful management of vegetation.
Heat Evidence
- Avg January Max Temp
- 28.5°C
- Heat Stress Days/Year
- 3 days
Heatwaves are becoming more frequent and intense in Canberra.
Coastal Evidence
- Distance to Coast
- 150 km
- Sea Level Rise Exposure
- N/A
- Erosion Risk
- N/A
Historical Climate Events
The 2003 Canberra bushfires caused widespread damage and loss of life in the ACT region.
SourceCanberra experienced a prolonged heatwave in January 2018, with record-breaking temperatures.
SourceHeavy rainfall caused flash flooding in parts of Canberra, including some areas near Forrest.
SourceClimate Outlook to 2050
Projections based on CSIRO and BOM climate modelling. Scenario: RCP8.5
| Hazard | Today | 2030 | 2050 |
|---|---|---|---|
| flood | 40 | 4.5(+0.5) | 5.0(+1.0) |
| bushfire | 60 | 6.5(+0.5) | 7.0(+1.0) |
| heat | 60 | 6.5(+0.5) | 7.0(+1.0) |
| coastal | 10 | 1.0 | 1.0 |
By 2030, under a high emissions scenario, Forrest is projected to experience a moderate increase in overall climate risk, with higher risks from flooding, bushfires, and heatwaves.
CSIRO Climate ProjectionsAdaptation Recommendations
Improve drainage infrastructure
Near-termUpgrade drainage systems to handle increased rainfall intensity and reduce the risk of flash flooding.
Est. cost: High
Learn moreImplement bushfire management strategies
ImmediateConduct regular fuel reduction burns and maintain firebreaks to reduce the risk of bushfires.
Est. cost: Medium
Learn moreDevelop a heatwave response plan
Near-termEstablish cooling centers and provide support to vulnerable populations during heatwaves.
Est. cost: Low
Learn morePromote water conservation
Long-termEncourage residents to conserve water to reduce the strain on water resources during droughts and heatwaves.
Est. cost: Low
Learn moreAbout Forrest's Climate Risk Profile
Forrest, ACT, is a suburb that is increasingly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. The primary risks include flooding from intense rainfall events, bushfires due to its proximity to bushland, and heatwaves that are becoming more frequent and intense.
The risk of flooding is driven by increased rainfall intensity and urban development, which reduces the capacity of the land to absorb water. Bushfire risk is heightened by hotter, drier conditions and strong winds. Heatwaves pose a significant threat to vulnerable populations, particularly the elderly and those with pre-existing health conditions.
Climate projections indicate that these risks will continue to increase in the coming decades. By 2030 and 2050, the scores for flood, bushfire, and heat are expected to rise under a high emissions scenario (RCP8.5). This underscores the need for proactive adaptation measures to protect the community.
Residents and property owners should take steps to mitigate these risks, such as maintaining their properties, preparing emergency plans, and staying informed about weather conditions and warnings. Local authorities are also working to implement strategies to reduce the impacts of climate change, such as improving drainage infrastructure and managing bushland areas.
Data sources: BOM · CSIRO · ACT Emergency Services Agency · ACT Environment and Planning Directorate
Local Government Resources
ACT Government
Frequently Asked Questions
What are the main climate change risks in Forrest?
The main climate change risks in Forrest include increased flooding, bushfire risk, and more frequent and intense heatwaves.
How can I prepare my property for bushfires?
You can prepare your property for bushfires by clearing vegetation around your home, maintaining firebreaks, and having a bushfire survival plan.
What should I do during a heatwave?
During a heatwave, stay indoors in air-conditioned environments, drink plenty of water, and avoid strenuous activities.
Where can I find information about flood risks in Forrest?
You can find information about flood risks in Forrest on the ACT Environment and Planning Directorate website.
Is climate change expected to impact property values in Forrest?
Climate change may impact property values in Forrest, particularly in areas that are more vulnerable to flooding or bushfires.
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