Climate Risk Profile: Gungahlin, ACT
Gungahlin faces moderate risks from flooding and heatwaves, with bushfire risk also present. Climate change is expected to exacerbate these risks, particularly heatwaves and flooding, requiring proactive adaptation measures.
Overall Risk Score
Confidence: Medium
Hazard Breakdown
Detailed Hazard Analysis
heat Risk
Gungahlin is experiencing an increase in the frequency and intensity of heatwaves. This poses a risk to vulnerable populations, infrastructure, and the environment.
Primary Drivers
- ·Rising global temperatures
- ·Urban heat island effect
- ·Reduced vegetation cover
Projections (RCP8.5)
2030
6.8
2050
7.5
flood Risk
Gungahlin faces a moderate risk of flooding, primarily from heavy rainfall events and potential overflow from nearby waterways. Development and urbanization can increase runoff, exacerbating flood risk.
Primary Drivers
- ·Increased rainfall intensity
- ·Urban development
- ·Changes in land use
Projections (RCP8.5)
2030
5.0
2050
5.5
coastal Risk
Gungahlin is located inland and does not face any direct coastal risks such as sea level rise or coastal erosion.
Projections (RCP8.5)
2030
1.0
2050
1.0
bushfire Risk
The risk of bushfire in Gungahlin is moderate due to its proximity to grasslands and bushland areas. Hot, dry conditions and strong winds can increase the likelihood and intensity of bushfires.
Primary Drivers
- ·Dry vegetation
- ·High temperatures
- ·Strong winds
Projections (RCP8.5)
2030
4.0
2050
4.2
What This Means for Property Owners
Insurance Outlook
Insurance premiums may increase in the future due to increased climate-related risks.
Price Impact
Properties in areas more vulnerable to flooding or bushfire may experience a decrease in value.
Buyer Checklist
- 1.Check flood maps and bushfire risk assessments.
- 2.Assess the property's vulnerability to heatwaves.
- 3.Consider the potential for increased insurance premiums.
- 4.Inquire about past climate-related events affecting the property.
Local Climate Evidence
Flood Evidence
- Nearest Waterway
- Ginninderra Creek
- Elevation Range
- 550-650m
- Flood Zone
- Areas adjacent to Ginninderra Creek are prone to flooding.
Historical flood data indicates that areas near Ginninderra Creek have experienced flooding during periods of heavy rainfall.
View council flood mapBushfire Evidence
- Distance to Bushland
- Adjacent to grasslands and bushland reserves.
- Planning Overlay
- ACT Emergency Services Agency bushfire risk maps.
- Bushfire Prone Area
- Yes
The ACT Emergency Services Agency identifies areas around Gungahlin as being bushfire prone.
Heat Evidence
- Avg January Max Temp
- 28.5°C
- Heat Stress Days/Year
- 3 days
Bureau of Meteorology data shows an increasing trend in the number of days exceeding 35°C in the Canberra region.
Coastal Evidence
- Distance to Coast
- 150 km
- Sea Level Rise Exposure
- Not applicable
- Erosion Risk
- Not applicable
Historical Climate Events
Severe thunderstorms caused flash flooding and property damage in the Canberra region, including Gungahlin.
SourceA prolonged heatwave in January 2019 resulted in record high temperatures in Canberra, impacting public health and infrastructure.
SourceThe 2003 Canberra bushfires had a devastating impact on the region, although Gungahlin was less directly affected than other areas, the smoke and disruption were significant.
SourceClimate Outlook to 2050
Projections based on CSIRO and BOM climate modelling. Scenario: RCP8.5
| Hazard | Today | 2030 | 2050 |
|---|---|---|---|
| flood | 4.5 | 4.8(+0.3) | 5.1(+0.6) |
| bushfire | 3.8 | 4.0(+0.2) | 4.1(+0.3) |
| heat | 6.2 | 7.0(+0.8) | 7.7(+1.5) |
| coastal | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 |
By 2030, Gungahlin is projected to experience a notable increase in heatwave intensity and frequency, along with a slightly elevated risk of flooding. Bushfire risk is expected to remain relatively stable. The overall climate risk is projected to increase moderately.
CSIRO Climate ProjectionsAdaptation Recommendations
Improve stormwater drainage infrastructure
Near-termUpgrade stormwater drainage systems to handle increased rainfall intensity and reduce the risk of flooding.
Est. cost: Medium
Learn moreImplement a heatwave management plan
ImmediateDevelop and implement a heatwave management plan to protect vulnerable populations during periods of extreme heat.
Est. cost: Low
Learn moreIncrease vegetation cover
Near-termPlant more trees and vegetation to reduce the urban heat island effect and improve air quality.
Est. cost: Medium
Learn moreStrengthen building codes
Long-termUpdate building codes to require new buildings to be more resilient to climate change impacts, such as heatwaves and flooding.
Est. cost: High
Learn moreCommunity awareness programs
Near-termEducate the community about climate change risks and adaptation measures.
Est. cost: Low
Learn moreAbout Gungahlin's Climate Risk Profile
Gungahlin, located in the Australian Capital Territory, is subject to a range of climate-related risks. The primary concerns are increasing heatwave intensity and frequency, as well as the potential for flooding due to more intense rainfall events. Bushfire risk is also a factor, given the surrounding grasslands and bushland.
The increasing frequency and intensity of heatwaves pose a significant threat to vulnerable populations, such as the elderly and those with pre-existing health conditions. Infrastructure, including power grids and transportation systems, may also be affected by extreme heat.
Flooding is another key concern, with potential for damage to property and disruption to essential services. Urban development and changes in land use can exacerbate flood risk by increasing runoff.
While Gungahlin is not directly exposed to coastal risks, the broader impacts of climate change, such as disruptions to supply chains and economic activity, could indirectly affect the region.
Addressing these climate risks requires a combination of mitigation and adaptation strategies. Mitigation efforts aim to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and slow the pace of climate change, while adaptation measures focus on building resilience to the impacts that are already occurring or are expected in the future.
Data sources: BOM · CSIRO · ACT Emergency Services Agency · ACT Government
Local Government Resources
ACT Government
Frequently Asked Questions
What are the main climate change risks in Gungahlin?
The main climate change risks in Gungahlin are increasing heatwave intensity and frequency, as well as the potential for flooding due to more intense rainfall events. Bushfire risk is also a factor.
How will climate change affect property values in Gungahlin?
Properties in areas more vulnerable to flooding or bushfire may experience a decrease in value. Increased insurance premiums may also affect property values.
What is the council doing to address climate change in Gungahlin?
The ACT Government is implementing a range of measures to address climate change, including reducing greenhouse gas emissions, improving stormwater drainage infrastructure, and developing a heatwave management plan.
What can I do to protect my home from climate change impacts?
You can take steps to protect your home from climate change impacts, such as improving insulation, installing rainwater tanks, and clearing vegetation around your property.
Where can I find more information about climate change risks in Gungahlin?
You can find more information about climate change risks in Gungahlin on the ACT Government's website and the Bureau of Meteorology's website.
Is Gungahlin likely to experience more bushfires in the future?
Climate projections suggest a potential increase in bushfire risk in the future due to hotter, drier conditions. However, the ACT government has strategies in place to manage and mitigate bushfire risks.
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