Climate Risk in Holmby, Australian Capital Territory

Holmby, Australian Capital Territory

Medium Risk

Updated Apr 2026

Holmby faces moderate risks from flooding, bushfires, and heatwaves, which are expected to increase with climate change. Residents should prepare for more frequent extreme weather events and take steps to mitigate their impact.

Overall Risk Score

52/100

Medium

Confidence: Medium

Hazard Breakdown

Flood

4.5

Bushfire

6.0

Heat

5.0

Coastal

1.0

Climate Hazard Breakdown for Holmby

increasing

Flood

45/100

Holmby faces a moderate risk of flooding, primarily from heavy rainfall events and potential overflow from nearby waterways. Climate change is expected to increase the intensity of rainfall, exacerbating flood risk.

Key drivers:

·Increased rainfall intensity
·Urban development

increasing

Bushfire

60/100

Holmby has a relatively high bushfire risk due to its proximity to bushland areas. Hot, dry conditions and strong winds can increase the likelihood and intensity of bushfires. Climate change is projected to worsen these conditions.

Key drivers:

·Proximity to bushland
·Hot and dry conditions

increasing

Heat

50/100

Holmby is likely to experience more frequent and intense heatwaves due to climate change. This can pose a risk to vulnerable populations, such as the elderly and those with chronic health conditions.

Key drivers:

·Climate change
·Urban heat island effect

stable

Coastal

10/100

As Holmby is not located near the coast, the risk of coastal hazards such as sea level rise and coastal erosion is negligible.

stable

Wind

24/100

Moderate wind risk — gusty summer winds

stable

Storm

28/100

Moderate storm risk — spring/summer thunderstorms

stable

Social

18/100

Moderate social stability — high public sector

increasing

Energy

32/100

Moderate energy costs — heating and cooling

In-Depth Climate Risk Guides for Holmby

Should I Buy

Property buying guide with climate risk assessment

Flood Risk

Flood zone mapping, historical events, and projections

Bushfire Risk

BAL assessment, vegetation proximity, and fire history

Climate Safety

Multi-hazard safety assessment to 2050

Storm Risk

Severe weather, hail, and wind risk analysis

Heat Risk

Extreme heat days, urban heat island, and cooling costs

Insurance Costs

Premium estimates and insurance availability

Investment Score

Climate-adjusted property investment analysis

Detailed Hazard Analysis

heat Risk

50/100

Holmby is likely to experience more frequent and intense heatwaves due to climate change. This can pose a risk to vulnerable populations, such as the elderly and those with chronic health conditions.

Primary Drivers

·Climate change
·Urban heat island effect

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

5.5

2050

6.3

Data source

flood Risk

45/100

Primary Drivers

·Increased rainfall intensity
·Urban development
·Climate change

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

5.0

2050

5.8

Data source

coastal Risk

10/100

As Holmby is not located near the coast, the risk of coastal hazards such as sea level rise and coastal erosion is negligible.

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

1.0

2050

1.0

Data source

bushfire Risk

60/100

Primary Drivers

·Proximity to bushland
·Hot and dry conditions
·Climate change

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

6.5

2050

7.2

Data source

What This Means for Property Owners

Insurance Outlook

Insurance premiums may increase due to climate-related risks.

Price Impact

Properties in high-risk areas may experience price reductions.

Buyer Checklist

1.Check flood maps and bushfire overlays.
2.Assess property's vulnerability to heatwaves.
3.Review insurance coverage and premiums.
4.Consider long-term climate risks when making property decisions.

Local Climate Evidence

Flood Evidence

Nearest Waterway: Molonglo River
Elevation Range: 550-600m
Flood Zone: Potentially affected by overland flow

Bushfire Evidence

Distance to Bushland: Adjacent to nature reserve
Planning Overlay: ACT Emergency Services Agency Bushfire Overlay
Bushfire Prone Area: Yes

Heat Evidence

Avg January Max Temp: 28.5°C
Heat Stress Days/Year: 3 days

Coastal Evidence

Distance to Coast: 150 km
Sea Level Rise Exposure: Not applicable
Erosion Risk: Not applicable

Historical Climate Events

2003

bushfireCatastrophic

The 2003 Canberra bushfires caused widespread damage and loss of life in the region.

Source

2018

heatwaveModerate

A prolonged heatwave in January 2018 resulted in record-breaking temperatures and increased demand on emergency services.

Source

2022

floodModerate

Heavy rainfall caused flash flooding in parts of Canberra, including some areas near Holmby.

Source

Climate Outlook to 2050

Projections based on CSIRO and BOM climate modelling. Scenario: RCP8.5

Hazard	Today	2030	2050
flood	45	4.8(+0.3)	5.1(+0.6)
bushfire	60	6.4(+0.4)	6.8(+0.8)
heat	50	5.6(+0.6)	6.5(+1.5)
coastal	10	1.0	1.0

By 2030, Holmby is projected to experience a moderate increase in overall climate risk, with notable increases in heatwave frequency and intensity, as well as a higher risk of bushfires and flooding.

CSIRO Climate Projections

Adaptation Recommendations

Improve Flood Defenses

Near-term

Upgrade local drainage infrastructure and implement flood-proofing measures for vulnerable properties.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Reduce Bushfire Risk

Immediate

Implement regular bushfire hazard reduction programs and educate residents on bushfire preparedness.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Mitigate Heatwave Impacts

Near-term

Establish cooling centers and provide support for vulnerable populations during heatwaves.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

Promote Water Conservation

Long-term

Encourage water-wise gardening and implement water restrictions during dry periods.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

About Holmby's Climate Risk Profile

Holmby, located in the Australian Capital Territory, is subject to a range of climate-related risks. The primary concerns are flooding from increased rainfall intensity, bushfires due to proximity to bushland, and heatwaves exacerbated by climate change.

Flooding is a significant concern, with potential for increased rainfall intensity leading to more frequent and severe flood events. Residents should be aware of local flood risks and take appropriate precautions.

Bushfire risk is elevated due to the suburb's location near bushland areas. Hot, dry conditions and strong winds can create a high fire danger. Homeowners should maintain their properties and be prepared to evacuate if necessary.

Heatwaves are also a growing concern, with climate change expected to increase the frequency and intensity of extreme heat events. Vulnerable populations should take extra care during heatwaves to stay cool and hydrated.

While coastal risks are minimal due to Holmby's inland location, the community should still be aware of the broader impacts of climate change and support efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

Data sources: BOM · CSIRO · ACT Emergency Services Agency · ACT Environment and Planning Directorate

Local Government Resources

ACT Government

Climate Strategy Flood Maps Emergency Services

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the main climate risks in Holmby?

The main climate risks in Holmby are flooding, bushfires, and heatwaves, which are expected to increase in frequency and intensity due to climate change.

How can I prepare my home for a bushfire?

You can prepare your home for a bushfire by maintaining a defensible space around your property, clearing gutters of leaves and debris, and having a bushfire survival plan.

What should I do during a heatwave?

During a heatwave, you should stay indoors in a cool place, drink plenty of water, and avoid strenuous activity. Check on vulnerable neighbors and family members.

Where can I find information about local flood risks?

You can find information about local flood risks on the ACT Government's Environment and Planning Directorate website.

How is the ACT Government addressing climate change?

The ACT Government has a climate change strategy that includes targets for reducing greenhouse gas emissions and adapting to the impacts of climate change.