Climate Risk in Holt, ACT
Holt faces moderate risks from flooding, bushfires, and heatwaves, which are expected to increase with climate change. The suburb's proximity to bushland and waterways contributes to these risks. Residents should prepare for more frequent extreme weather events.
Overall Risk Score
Confidence: Medium
Hazard Breakdown
Detailed Hazard Analysis
heat Risk
Holt is likely to experience more frequent and intense heatwaves as a result of climate change. This can pose a risk to vulnerable populations, such as the elderly and those with pre-existing health conditions. Urban areas tend to experience higher temperatures due to the urban heat island effect.
Primary Drivers
- ·Rising average temperatures
- ·Increased frequency of heatwaves
- ·Urban heat island effect
Projections (RCP8.5)
2030
5.5
2050
6.0
flood Risk
Holt faces a moderate risk of flooding, primarily from heavy rainfall events and the potential for flash flooding due to its proximity to waterways and drainage systems. Climate change is expected to increase the intensity of rainfall events, potentially exacerbating flood risk.
Primary Drivers
- ·Increased rainfall intensity
- ·Urban development
- ·Inadequate drainage infrastructure
Projections (RCP8.5)
2030
5.0
2050
5.5
coastal Risk
As Holt is located inland, the risk of coastal hazards such as sea level rise and coastal erosion is negligible.
Projections (RCP8.5)
2030
1.0
2050
1.0
bushfire Risk
Holt has a notable risk of bushfire due to its proximity to surrounding bushland areas. Hot, dry conditions and strong winds can increase the likelihood of bushfires spreading into the suburb. Climate change is projected to increase the frequency and severity of bushfire weather.
Primary Drivers
- ·Increased frequency of hot, dry days
- ·Accumulation of dry vegetation
- ·Strong winds
Projections (RCP8.5)
2030
6.5
2050
7.0
What This Means for Property Owners
Insurance Outlook
Insurance premiums may increase due to increased climate risks.
Price Impact
Properties in areas with higher flood or bushfire risk may experience price reductions.
Buyer Checklist
- 1.Check flood maps and bushfire prone area designations.
- 2.Assess property's vulnerability to flooding and bushfire.
- 3.Consider the cost of insurance and potential for increased premiums.
- 4.Inquire about past flood or bushfire events in the area.
Local Climate Evidence
Flood Evidence
- Nearest Waterway
- Ginninderra Creek
- Elevation Range
- 580-620m
- Flood Zone
- Potentially affected by overland flow
Some areas may be susceptible to localised flooding during heavy rainfall events.
View council flood mapBushfire Evidence
- Distance to Bushland
- Adjacent to open space and bushland reserves
- Planning Overlay
- ACT Emergency Services Agency Bushfire Prone Area Map
- Bushfire Prone Area
- Yes
Residents should maintain defensible space around their properties and be aware of bushfire risks.
Heat Evidence
- Avg January Max Temp
- 28.5°C
- Heat Stress Days/Year
- 3 days
Urban areas tend to experience higher temperatures due to the urban heat island effect.
Coastal Evidence
- Distance to Coast
- 150 km
- Sea Level Rise Exposure
- Not applicable
- Erosion Risk
- Not applicable
Historical Climate Events
The 2003 Canberra bushfires had a devastating impact on the region, including Holt. Many homes were destroyed, and lives were lost.
SourceCanberra experienced a prolonged heatwave in January 2018, with temperatures exceeding 40 degrees Celsius for several consecutive days. This put a strain on infrastructure and caused health problems for vulnerable residents.
SourceHeavy rainfall caused flash flooding in parts of Canberra, including areas near Holt. Some roads were closed, and properties were damaged.
SourceClimate Outlook to 2050
Projections based on CSIRO and BOM climate modelling. Scenario: RCP8.5
| Hazard | Today | 2030 | 2050 |
|---|---|---|---|
| flood | 4.5 | 4.8(+0.3) | 5.0(+0.5) |
| bushfire | 6.0 | 6.4(+0.4) | 6.7(+0.7) |
| heat | 5.0 | 5.6(+0.6) | 6.0(+1.0) |
| coastal | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 |
By 2030, Holt is projected to experience a moderate increase in overall climate risk, with notable increases in heatwave frequency and intensity, as well as a slightly higher risk of flooding and bushfires.
CSIRO Climate ProjectionsAdaptation Recommendations
Improve drainage infrastructure
Near-termUpgrade drainage systems to handle increased rainfall intensity and reduce the risk of flash flooding.
Est. cost: Medium
Learn moreBushfire risk mitigation
ImmediateImplement measures to reduce bushfire risk, such as fuel reduction burns, community education programs, and stricter building codes for new developments.
Est. cost: Medium
Learn moreHeatwave preparedness
Near-termDevelop a heatwave preparedness plan to protect vulnerable residents, including establishing cooling centers and providing information on staying cool and hydrated.
Est. cost: Low
Learn moreCommunity awareness programs
Long-termConduct community awareness programs to educate residents about climate risks and adaptation measures.
Est. cost: Low
Learn moreAbout Holt's Climate Risk Profile
Holt, located in the Belconnen district of Canberra, is a primarily residential suburb. Its location near bushland and waterways makes it susceptible to certain climate-related hazards.
Flooding is a concern due to the potential for heavy rainfall events and flash flooding. The suburb's drainage infrastructure may be challenged by more intense rainfall in the future. Residents should be aware of flood risks and take appropriate precautions.
Bushfire risk is also significant, particularly during hot, dry periods. The surrounding bushland can act as a source of ignition, and strong winds can quickly spread fires into the suburb. Maintaining defensible space around properties is crucial.
Heatwaves are becoming more frequent and intense, posing a health risk to vulnerable populations. Urban areas like Holt tend to experience higher temperatures due to the urban heat island effect. Staying cool and hydrated during heatwaves is essential.
While coastal hazards are not a direct threat to Holt, the broader impacts of climate change, such as disruptions to supply chains and increased migration, could indirectly affect the suburb.
Data sources: BOM · CSIRO · ACT Emergency Services Agency · ACT Government Environment, Planning and Sustainable Development Directorate
Local Government Resources
ACT Government
Frequently Asked Questions
What are the main climate change risks in Holt?
The main climate change risks in Holt are increased heatwaves, bushfire risk, and flooding due to more intense rainfall events.
How can I prepare my home for a bushfire?
You can prepare your home for a bushfire by maintaining defensible space around your property, clearing gutters of leaves and debris, and having a bushfire survival plan.
What should I do during a heatwave?
During a heatwave, it is important to stay cool and hydrated. Drink plenty of water, stay in air-conditioned environments, and avoid strenuous activity during the hottest part of the day.
Where can I find information about flood risks in Holt?
You can find information about flood risks in Holt on the ACT Government's Environment, Planning and Sustainable Development Directorate website, including flood maps and information about flood preparedness.
How is the ACT Government addressing climate change?
The ACT Government has a comprehensive climate change strategy that includes targets for reducing greenhouse gas emissions, promoting renewable energy, and adapting to the impacts of climate change.
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