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Climate Risk Profile: Kaleen, ACT

kaleen, Australian Capital Territory· 2617
Medium Risk
Updated Mar 2026

Kaleen faces increasing risks from flooding, bushfires, and heatwaves due to climate change. Residents should prepare for more frequent extreme weather events and take steps to mitigate their impact.

Overall Risk Score

52/100
Medium

Confidence: Medium

Hazard Breakdown

Flood
4.5
Bushfire
6.0
Heat
5.0
Coastal
1.0

Climate Hazard Breakdown for kaleen

increasing

Flood

45/100

Kaleen has a moderate risk of flooding, primarily from intense rainfall events and localised stormwater runoff. Some areas are more susceptible due to lower elevation and proximity to drainage channels.

Key drivers:

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Urban development increasing runoff
increasing

Bushfire

60/100

Kaleen faces a notable bushfire risk due to its proximity to grassland and bushland areas. Hot, dry conditions during summer increase the likelihood of bushfires impacting the suburb.

Key drivers:

  • ·Increased frequency of hot, dry days
  • ·Accumulation of flammable vegetation
increasing

Heat

50/100

Kaleen is experiencing more frequent and intense heatwaves. This poses a risk to vulnerable populations, particularly the elderly and those with pre-existing health conditions.

Key drivers:

  • ·Rising average temperatures
  • ·Increased frequency of heatwaves
stable

Coastal

10/100

Kaleen is not directly exposed to coastal risks. Sea level rise and coastal erosion are not significant concerns for this suburb.

Key drivers:

  • ·N/A
stable

Wind

24/100

Moderate wind risk — gusty summer winds

stable

Storm

28/100

Moderate storm risk — spring/summer thunderstorms

stable

Social

18/100

Moderate social stability — high public sector

increasing

Energy

32/100

Moderate energy costs — heating and cooling

In-Depth Climate Risk Guides for kaleen

Should I Buy

Property buying guide with climate risk assessment

Flood Risk

Flood zone mapping, historical events, and projections

Bushfire Risk

BAL assessment, vegetation proximity, and fire history

Climate Safety

Multi-hazard safety assessment to 2050

Storm Risk

Severe weather, hail, and wind risk analysis

Heat Risk

Extreme heat days, urban heat island, and cooling costs

Insurance Costs

Premium estimates and insurance availability

Investment Score

Climate-adjusted property investment analysis

Detailed Hazard Analysis

heat Risk

50/100

Kaleen is experiencing more frequent and intense heatwaves. This poses a risk to vulnerable populations, particularly the elderly and those with pre-existing health conditions.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Rising average temperatures
  • ·Increased frequency of heatwaves

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

5.5

2050

6.0

Data source

flood Risk

45/100

Kaleen has a moderate risk of flooding, primarily from intense rainfall events and localised stormwater runoff. Some areas are more susceptible due to lower elevation and proximity to drainage channels.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Urban development increasing runoff

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

5.0

2050

5.5

Data source

coastal Risk

10/100

Kaleen is not directly exposed to coastal risks. Sea level rise and coastal erosion are not significant concerns for this suburb.

Primary Drivers

  • ·N/A

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

1.0

2050

1.0

Data source

bushfire Risk

60/100

Kaleen faces a notable bushfire risk due to its proximity to grassland and bushland areas. Hot, dry conditions during summer increase the likelihood of bushfires impacting the suburb.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased frequency of hot, dry days
  • ·Accumulation of flammable vegetation

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

6.5

2050

7.0

Data source

What This Means for Property Owners

Insurance Outlook

Insurance premiums may increase due to climate-related risks.

Price Impact

Properties in high-risk areas may experience a decrease in value.

Buyer Checklist

  • 1.Check flood maps and bushfire-prone area designations.
  • 2.Assess the property's vulnerability to heatwaves.
  • 3.Consider the potential impact of climate change on insurance premiums.
  • 4.Inquire about council plans for climate adaptation.

Local Climate Evidence

Flood Evidence

Nearest Waterway
Ginninderra Creek
Elevation Range
580-620m
Flood Zone
Areas near Ginninderra Creek and drainage channels

Some properties may be at risk of flash flooding during heavy rainfall events.

View council flood map

Bushfire Evidence

Distance to Bushland
Adjacent to grassland and bushland reserves
Planning Overlay
ACTmapi Bushfire Prone Areas
Bushfire Prone Area
Yes

Residents should maintain firebreaks and clear flammable vegetation around their homes.

Heat Evidence

Avg January Max Temp
28.5°C
Heat Stress Days/Year
3 days

Heatwaves are becoming more frequent and intense, posing a risk to vulnerable residents.

Coastal Evidence

Distance to Coast
150 km
Sea Level Rise Exposure
N/A
Erosion Risk
N/A

Historical Climate Events

2018
stormModerate

Severe thunderstorms caused flash flooding and property damage in Kaleen.

Source
2003
bushfireCatastrophic

The 2003 Canberra bushfires impacted Kaleen, causing property damage and evacuations.

Source
2019
heatwaveModerate

A prolonged heatwave in January 2019 resulted in heat stress and health concerns for residents.

Source
2020
stormMinor

Heavy rainfall caused localized flooding in low-lying areas of Kaleen.

Source

Climate Outlook to 2050

Projections based on CSIRO and BOM climate modelling. Scenario: RCP8.5

HazardToday20302050
flood454.8(+0.3)5.1(+0.6)
bushfire606.4(+0.4)6.8(+0.8)
heat505.6(+0.6)6.0(+1.0)
coastal101.01.0

By 2030, Kaleen is projected to experience a moderate increase in overall climate risk, with notable increases in heatwave frequency and intensity, as well as a higher risk of bushfires and flooding.

CSIRO Climate Projections

Adaptation Recommendations

Improve stormwater drainage

Near-term

Upgrade stormwater infrastructure to reduce the risk of flooding during heavy rainfall events.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Reduce bushfire hazards

Immediate

Clear flammable vegetation around homes and maintain firebreaks to reduce the risk of bushfire damage.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

Install energy-efficient cooling

Near-term

Install air conditioning or other cooling systems to protect vulnerable residents during heatwaves.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Develop a community emergency plan

Long-term

Create a plan to prepare for and respond to extreme weather events, including evacuation procedures and communication strategies.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

About kaleen's Climate Risk Profile

Kaleen, located in the Belconnen district of Canberra, is increasingly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. The suburb's proximity to bushland and drainage channels makes it susceptible to bushfires and flooding, while rising temperatures are exacerbating heatwave risks.

Flooding is a concern due to increased rainfall intensity and urban development, which can lead to stormwater runoff. Bushfire risk is elevated during hot, dry summers, with the potential for fires to spread from nearby bushland areas. Heatwaves are becoming more frequent and intense, posing a threat to vulnerable residents.

Climate projections indicate that these risks will continue to increase in the coming decades. Residents should take proactive measures to protect their homes and families, including preparing for extreme weather events and implementing adaptation strategies.

The local council is working to address climate change through various initiatives, including improving stormwater management, reducing bushfire hazards, and promoting energy efficiency. However, individual action is also essential to build resilience and mitigate the impacts of climate change.

Data sources: BOM · CSIRO · ACT Emergency Services Agency · ACT Government Environment and Planning

Local Government Resources

ACT Government

Climate StrategyFlood MapsEmergency Services

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the main climate change risks in Kaleen?

The main climate change risks in Kaleen are flooding, bushfires, and heatwaves. These risks are projected to increase in the coming decades due to rising temperatures and changes in rainfall patterns.

How can I prepare my home for a bushfire?

You can prepare your home for a bushfire by clearing flammable vegetation around your property, maintaining firebreaks, and having a bushfire survival plan.

What should I do during a heatwave?

During a heatwave, you should stay indoors in a cool place, drink plenty of water, and avoid strenuous activity. Check on vulnerable neighbors and family members.

Where can I find information about flood risks in Kaleen?

You can find information about flood risks in Kaleen on the ACT Government Environment and Planning website, which includes flood maps and other resources.

Is Kaleen a good place to invest in property considering climate change?

Kaleen presents both opportunities and risks for property investment. While the area is desirable, potential buyers should carefully consider the increasing risks of flooding, bushfires, and heatwaves, and factor in potential adaptation costs.

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