Climate Risk Profile: Macarthur, ACT

macarthur, Australian Capital Territory· UNKNOWN
Medium Risk
Updated Mar 2026

Macarthur faces moderate risks from flooding and heatwaves, with bushfire risk also present. Climate change is expected to exacerbate these risks, particularly in relation to increased rainfall intensity and higher average temperatures. Residents should prepare for more frequent extreme weather events.

Overall Risk Score

5.2/10
Medium

Confidence: Medium

Hazard Breakdown

Flood
6.5
Bushfire
4.0
Heat
6.0
Coastal
1.0

Detailed Hazard Analysis

heat Risk

6.0/10

Macarthur experiences a notable risk from heatwaves, with increasing average temperatures and more frequent extreme heat days projected. Vulnerable populations are particularly at risk.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Rising average temperatures
  • ·Urban heat island effect
  • ·Climate change

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

6.5

2050

7.0

Data source

flood Risk

6.5/10

Macarthur faces a moderate risk of flooding, primarily from heavy rainfall events and potential overflow from nearby waterways. Development patterns and stormwater management contribute to the risk profile.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Urban development
  • ·Stormwater capacity

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

7.0

2050

7.5

Data source

coastal Risk

1.0/10

As an inland suburb, Macarthur has a negligible risk associated with coastal hazards such as sea level rise and coastal erosion.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Distance from coast

Projections (RCP2.6)

2030

1.0

2050

1.0

Data source

bushfire Risk

4.0/10

The bushfire risk in Macarthur is moderate due to its proximity to grasslands and some wooded areas. While not directly surrounded by dense forest, ember attack and grassfires pose a threat during dry periods.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Dry vegetation
  • ·Wind patterns
  • ·Ember attack

Projections (RCP4.5)

2030

4.2

2050

4.5

Data source

What This Means for Property Owners

Insurance Outlook

Insurance premiums may increase due to flood and heatwave risks.

Price Impact

Properties in flood-prone areas may experience a negative impact on property values.

Buyer Checklist

  • 1.Check flood maps and insurance costs.
  • 2.Assess property's bushfire risk and mitigation measures.
  • 3.Consider energy efficiency and cooling options for heatwaves.
  • 4.Review council's climate adaptation plans.

Local Climate Evidence

Flood Evidence

Nearest Waterway
Lake Tuggeranong
Elevation Range
580-600m
Flood Zone
Areas adjacent to Lake Tuggeranong and stormwater channels

Historical flood events have primarily affected low-lying areas near the lake and drainage channels. Improved stormwater infrastructure is being implemented to reduce future risks.

View council flood map

Bushfire Evidence

Distance to Bushland
Approximately 2km to nearest grassland
Planning Overlay
ACT Emergency Services Agency Bushfire Overlay
Bushfire Prone Area
Yes

The suburb is designated as a bushfire-prone area, requiring properties to adhere to specific building standards and vegetation management practices.

Heat Evidence

Avg January Max Temp
28.5°C
Heat Stress Days/Year
3 days

The urban heat island effect can exacerbate heatwave conditions in Macarthur, particularly in areas with limited green space. Vulnerable populations are advised to take precautions during extreme heat events.

Coastal Evidence

Distance to Coast
150 km
Sea Level Rise Exposure
Not applicable
Erosion Risk
Not applicable

Historical Climate Events

2018
stormModerate

Severe thunderstorm with heavy rainfall caused localized flooding in parts of Macarthur.

Source
2020
heatwaveModerate

Prolonged heatwave with temperatures exceeding 40°C impacted vulnerable residents.

Source
2003
bushfireMajor

The 2003 Canberra bushfires impacted the region, with smoke and ash affecting Macarthur.

Source
2010
floodMinor

Heavy rainfall caused minor flooding in low-lying areas near Lake Tuggeranong.

Source

Climate Outlook to 2050

Projections based on CSIRO and BOM climate modelling. Scenario: RCP8.5

HazardToday20302050
flood6.56.8(+0.3)7.2(+0.7)
bushfire4.04.1(+0.1)4.3(+0.3)
heat6.06.6(+0.6)7.5(+1.5)
coastal1.01.01.0

By 2030, Macarthur is projected to experience more frequent and intense heatwaves, along with an increased risk of flooding due to heavier rainfall events. Bushfire risk will also slightly increase.

CSIRO Climate Projections

Adaptation Recommendations

Improve stormwater infrastructure

Near-term

Upgrade stormwater drainage systems to handle increased rainfall intensity and reduce flood risk.

Est. cost: High

Learn more

Implement heatwave early warning system

Immediate

Develop a system to alert vulnerable residents of impending heatwaves and provide guidance on staying safe.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

Enhance bushfire preparedness

Near-term

Conduct community education programs on bushfire safety and implement vegetation management strategies.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Promote water conservation

Long-term

Encourage residents to conserve water through rebates and educational campaigns to reduce strain on water resources during droughts.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

Increase urban green space

Long-term

Plant more trees and create green spaces to reduce the urban heat island effect and provide shade during heatwaves.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

About macarthur's Climate Risk Profile

Macarthur, located in the Australian Capital Territory, is subject to a range of climate-related risks. Flooding is a primary concern due to increased rainfall intensity and potential overflow from nearby waterways. The suburb's development patterns and stormwater management infrastructure play a crucial role in mitigating this risk.

Bushfire risk is moderate, with the potential for grassfires and ember attacks during dry periods. While not directly surrounded by dense forest, the proximity to grasslands necessitates preparedness and preventative measures.

Heatwaves pose a significant threat, with rising average temperatures and more frequent extreme heat days projected. Vulnerable populations, including the elderly and those with pre-existing health conditions, are particularly at risk during these events.

Coastal risks are negligible due to Macarthur's inland location. However, the broader impacts of climate change, such as disruptions to supply chains and economic activity, may indirectly affect the suburb. Adaptation measures are essential to build resilience and protect the community from the impacts of climate change.

Data sources: BOM · CSIRO · ACT Emergency Services Agency · ACT Government Environment, Planning and Sustainable Development Directorate

Local Government Resources

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the main climate risks facing Macarthur?

Macarthur faces primary risks from flooding, heatwaves, and bushfires. Climate change is expected to exacerbate these risks, leading to more frequent and intense extreme weather events.

How can I prepare my home for a flood?

You can prepare your home by elevating appliances, clearing gutters and downpipes, and having an emergency plan in place. Check the ACT Government's flood maps to understand your property's risk.

What should I do during a heatwave?

During a heatwave, stay indoors in air-conditioned environments, drink plenty of water, and avoid strenuous activities. Check on vulnerable neighbors and family members.

How can I protect my property from bushfires?

You can protect your property by maintaining a clear buffer zone around your home, removing flammable materials, and having a bushfire survival plan. Stay informed about fire danger ratings and warnings.

What is the council doing to address climate change in Macarthur?

The ACT Government is implementing a range of climate adaptation and mitigation strategies, including upgrading stormwater infrastructure, promoting energy efficiency, and increasing urban green space. Refer to the ACT Climate Change Strategy for more details.

Where can I find information about emergency services in Macarthur?

Information about emergency services, including bushfire and flood warnings, can be found on the ACT Emergency Services Agency (ESA) website.

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