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Climate Risk in Macgregor, ACT

Macgregor, Australian Capital Territory· 2615
Medium Risk
Updated Apr 2026

Macgregor faces moderate risks from flooding, bushfires, and heatwaves. Climate change is expected to exacerbate these risks, particularly in terms of increased heatwave frequency and rainfall intensity. Residents should prepare for potential impacts and stay informed about emergency warnings.

Overall Risk Score

52/100
Medium

Confidence: Medium

Hazard Breakdown

Flood
4.5
Bushfire
6.0
Heat
5.0
Coastal
1.0

Climate Hazard Breakdown for Macgregor

increasing

Flood

45/100

Macgregor faces a moderate risk of flooding, primarily from heavy rainfall events and potential stormwater runoff. The area's topography and drainage infrastructure contribute to this risk.

Key drivers:

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Urban development
stable

Bushfire

60/100

Macgregor has a relatively high bushfire risk due to its proximity to bushland areas. Dry conditions and strong winds can exacerbate this risk during the bushfire season.

Key drivers:

  • ·Dry vegetation
  • ·High temperatures
increasing

Heat

50/100

Macgregor experiences moderate heat risk, with increasing average temperatures and more frequent heatwave events projected. This can impact vulnerable populations and infrastructure.

Key drivers:

  • ·Rising global temperatures
  • ·Urban heat island effect
stable

Coastal

10/100

Macgregor is not exposed to coastal risks.

stable

Wind

24/100

Moderate wind risk — gusty summer winds

stable

Storm

28/100

Moderate storm risk — spring/summer thunderstorms

stable

Social

18/100

Moderate social stability — high public sector

increasing

Energy

32/100

Moderate energy costs — heating and cooling

In-Depth Climate Risk Guides for Macgregor

Should I Buy

Property buying guide with climate risk assessment

Flood Risk

Flood zone mapping, historical events, and projections

Bushfire Risk

BAL assessment, vegetation proximity, and fire history

Climate Safety

Multi-hazard safety assessment to 2050

Storm Risk

Severe weather, hail, and wind risk analysis

Heat Risk

Extreme heat days, urban heat island, and cooling costs

Insurance Costs

Premium estimates and insurance availability

Investment Score

Climate-adjusted property investment analysis

Detailed Hazard Analysis

heat Risk

50/100

Macgregor experiences moderate heat risk, with increasing average temperatures and more frequent heatwave events projected. This can impact vulnerable populations and infrastructure.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Rising global temperatures
  • ·Urban heat island effect

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

5.5

2050

6.0

Data source

flood Risk

45/100

Macgregor faces a moderate risk of flooding, primarily from heavy rainfall events and potential stormwater runoff. The area's topography and drainage infrastructure contribute to this risk.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Urban development
  • ·Aging infrastructure

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

5.0

2050

5.5

Data source

coastal Risk

10/100

Macgregor is not exposed to coastal risks.

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

1.0

2050

1.0

Data source

bushfire Risk

60/100

Macgregor has a relatively high bushfire risk due to its proximity to bushland areas. Dry conditions and strong winds can exacerbate this risk during the bushfire season.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Dry vegetation
  • ·High temperatures
  • ·Wind patterns

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

6.0

2050

6.2

Data source

What This Means for Property Owners

Insurance Outlook

Insurers may increase premiums in response to increased flood and bushfire risk.

Price Impact

Properties in high-risk areas may experience slower price growth.

Buyer Checklist

  • 1.Check flood maps and bushfire-prone area designations.
  • 2.Assess property's vulnerability to heatwaves.
  • 3.Review insurance options and potential premium increases.
  • 4.Consider long-term climate change projections for the area.

Local Climate Evidence

Flood Evidence

Nearest Waterway
Ginninderra Creek
Elevation Range
580-620m
Flood Zone
Potentially affected by overland flow

Some areas may be susceptible to flash flooding during intense rainfall events.

View council flood map

Bushfire Evidence

Distance to Bushland
Adjacent to nature reserves
Planning Overlay
ACTmapi Bushfire Prone Areas
Bushfire Prone Area
Yes

Residents should maintain a bushfire survival plan and be aware of fire danger ratings.

Heat Evidence

Avg January Max Temp
28.5°C
Heat Stress Days/Year
3 days

Heatwaves are becoming more frequent and intense in the region.

Coastal Evidence

Distance to Coast
150 km
Sea Level Rise Exposure
Not applicable
Erosion Risk
Not applicable

Historical Climate Events

2003
bushfireCatastrophic

The 2003 Canberra bushfires had a devastating impact on the region, including areas near Macgregor. The fires resulted in significant property damage and loss of life.

Source
2018
stormModerate

A severe thunderstorm caused flash flooding and property damage in parts of Canberra, including areas near Macgregor.

Source
2019
heatwaveModerate

Canberra experienced a prolonged heatwave in January 2019, with temperatures exceeding 40 degrees Celsius for several consecutive days.

Source
2020
stormMinor

A hailstorm hit Canberra, causing minor damage to vehicles and property in Macgregor.

Source

Climate Outlook to 2050

Projections based on CSIRO and BOM climate modelling. Scenario: RCP8.5

HazardToday20302050
flood454.7(+0.2)5.0(+0.5)
bushfire606.1(+0.1)6.2(+0.2)
heat505.5(+0.5)6.0(+1.0)
coastal101.01.0

By 2030, Macgregor is projected to experience a slight increase in overall climate risk, primarily driven by more frequent and intense heatwaves. Flood risk may also increase due to changes in rainfall patterns.

CSIRO Climate Projections

Adaptation Recommendations

Improve stormwater drainage infrastructure

Near-term

Upgrade stormwater drainage systems to handle increased rainfall intensity and reduce flood risk.

Est. cost: High

Learn more

Implement bushfire mitigation measures

Immediate

Reduce fuel loads around properties and improve bushfire preparedness through community education programs.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Develop a heatwave management plan

Near-term

Establish cooling centers and provide support for vulnerable populations during heatwave events.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Promote water conservation

Long-term

Encourage water-efficient landscaping and water-saving practices to reduce water demand during droughts.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

About Macgregor's Climate Risk Profile

Macgregor, located in the Australian Capital Territory, is subject to a range of climate-related risks. The primary concerns are flooding due to intense rainfall events, bushfire risk stemming from nearby bushland, and increasing heatwave frequency and intensity.

Flooding can occur due to heavy rainfall overwhelming stormwater drainage systems. Climate change projections indicate an increase in extreme rainfall events, which could worsen flooding in the future. Residents should be aware of flood warnings and take necessary precautions.

Bushfire risk is a significant concern, especially during the dry summer months. The proximity of bushland increases the potential for bushfires to impact the suburb. Maintaining defensible space around properties and staying informed about fire danger ratings are crucial.

Heatwaves are becoming more frequent and intense, posing health risks to vulnerable populations. Rising average temperatures and the urban heat island effect contribute to this risk. Access to cooling centers and strategies for managing heat exposure are important.

While Macgregor is not directly exposed to coastal risks, the broader impacts of climate change, such as disruptions to supply chains and economic activity, could indirectly affect the suburb.

Data sources: BOM · CSIRO · ACT Emergency Services Agency · ACT Government

Local Government Resources

ACT Government

Climate StrategyFlood MapsEmergency Services

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the main climate change risks in Macgregor?

The main climate change risks in Macgregor are flooding, bushfires, and heatwaves. These risks are expected to increase in the future due to climate change.

How can I prepare for flooding in Macgregor?

You can prepare for flooding by staying informed about flood warnings, having a flood plan, and ensuring your property is adequately insured.

What should I do during a bushfire in Macgregor?

During a bushfire, follow the advice of emergency services, evacuate if necessary, and protect your property as much as possible.

How can I stay safe during a heatwave in Macgregor?

During a heatwave, stay hydrated, stay cool, and avoid strenuous activity. Check on vulnerable neighbors and friends.

Where can I find more information about climate change in Macgregor?

You can find more information about climate change in Macgregor from the ACT Government, the Bureau of Meteorology, and the CSIRO.

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$300B+
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30-120%
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