Climate Risk in Monash, Australian Capital Territory

Monash, Australian Capital Territory

Medium Risk

Updated Mar 2026

Monash faces increasing risks from bushfires and heatwaves due to climate change. Flooding is also a concern. Residents should prepare for more frequent extreme weather events.

Overall Risk Score

52/100

Medium

Confidence: Medium

Hazard Breakdown

Flood

4.0

Bushfire

6.0

Heat

6.0

Coastal

1.0

Climate Hazard Breakdown for Monash

increasing

Flood

40/100

Monash faces a moderate risk of flooding, primarily from heavy rainfall events and localized stormwater runoff. The area's topography and drainage infrastructure contribute to this risk.

Key drivers:

·Increased rainfall intensity
·Urban development

increasing

Bushfire

60/100

Monash has a high bushfire risk due to its proximity to bushland areas. Hot, dry summers and strong winds exacerbate this risk.

Key drivers:

·Climate change
·Fuel load

increasing

Heat

60/100

Monash is experiencing increasing heatwave frequency and intensity. This poses a risk to vulnerable populations, particularly during summer months.

Key drivers:

·Climate change
·Urban heat island effect

stable

Coastal

10/100

Monash is not exposed to coastal risks.

stable

Wind

24/100

Moderate wind risk — gusty summer winds

stable

Storm

28/100

Moderate storm risk — spring/summer thunderstorms

stable

Social

18/100

Moderate social stability — high public sector

increasing

Energy

32/100

Moderate energy costs — heating and cooling

In-Depth Climate Risk Guides for Monash

Should I Buy

Property buying guide with climate risk assessment

Flood Risk

Flood zone mapping, historical events, and projections

Bushfire Risk

BAL assessment, vegetation proximity, and fire history

Climate Safety

Multi-hazard safety assessment to 2050

Storm Risk

Severe weather, hail, and wind risk analysis

Heat Risk

Extreme heat days, urban heat island, and cooling costs

Insurance Costs

Premium estimates and insurance availability

Investment Score

Climate-adjusted property investment analysis

Detailed Hazard Analysis

heat Risk

60/100

Monash is experiencing increasing heatwave frequency and intensity. This poses a risk to vulnerable populations, particularly during summer months.

Primary Drivers

·Climate change
·Urban heat island effect
·Aging population

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

6.5

2050

7.0

Data source

flood Risk

40/100

Monash faces a moderate risk of flooding, primarily from heavy rainfall events and localized stormwater runoff. The area's topography and drainage infrastructure contribute to this risk.

Primary Drivers

·Increased rainfall intensity
·Urban development
·Aging infrastructure

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

4.5

2050

5.0

Data source

coastal Risk

10/100

Monash is not exposed to coastal risks.

Projections (N/A)

2030

1.0

2050

1.0

Data source

bushfire Risk

60/100

Monash has a high bushfire risk due to its proximity to bushland areas. Hot, dry summers and strong winds exacerbate this risk.

Primary Drivers

·Climate change
·Fuel load
·Increased ignition sources

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

6.5

2050

7.0

Data source

What This Means for Property Owners

Insurance Outlook

Insurance premiums may increase due to climate-related risks.

Price Impact

Properties in high-risk areas may experience a decrease in value.

Buyer Checklist

1.Check flood maps and bushfire-prone area designations.
2.Assess property's vulnerability to heatwaves.
3.Inquire about insurance costs and coverage.
4.Develop a bushfire survival plan.

Local Climate Evidence

Flood Evidence

Nearest Waterway: Gudgenby River
Elevation Range: 620-650m
Flood Zone: Low to Moderate

Bushfire Evidence

Distance to Bushland: Adjacent
Planning Overlay: ACT Emergency Services Agency Bushfire Overlay
Bushfire Prone Area: Yes

Heat Evidence

Avg January Max Temp: 28.5°C
Heat Stress Days/Year: 3 days

Coastal Evidence

Distance to Coast: 150 km
Sea Level Rise Exposure: Not Applicable
Erosion Risk: Not Applicable

Historical Climate Events

2003

bushfireCatastrophic

The 2003 Canberra bushfires caused widespread damage and loss of life in the region.

Source

2018

heatwaveModerate

A prolonged heatwave in January 2018 resulted in heat stress and health impacts.

Source

2020

stormModerate

A severe thunderstorm caused flash flooding and property damage in parts of Canberra.

Source

Climate Outlook to 2050

Projections based on CSIRO and BOM climate modelling. Scenario: RCP8.5

Hazard	Today	2030	2050
flood	40	4.5(+0.5)	5.0(+1.0)
bushfire	60	6.5(+0.5)	7.0(+1.0)
heat	60	6.5(+0.5)	7.0(+1.0)
coastal	10	1.0	1.0

By 2030, Monash is projected to experience increased bushfire risk and more frequent heatwaves under a high emissions scenario.

CSIRO Climate Projections

Adaptation Recommendations

Develop a Bushfire Survival Plan

Immediate

Create a detailed plan for evacuating your property in the event of a bushfire. Include emergency contact information, evacuation routes, and a list of essential items to take with you.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

Improve Home Cooling

Near-term

Install energy-efficient air conditioning or fans to help keep your home cool during heatwaves. Consider insulation and window coverings to reduce heat gain.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Improve Drainage

Near-term

Ensure that your property has adequate drainage to prevent flooding during heavy rainfall events. Clear gutters and downpipes regularly.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

Participate in Community Preparedness Programs

Long-term

Engage with local community groups and emergency services to learn about climate risks and preparedness strategies.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

About Monash's Climate Risk Profile

Monash, located in the Australian Capital Territory, is increasingly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. The primary risks include bushfires, heatwaves, and flooding. Changes in temperature and rainfall patterns are expected to exacerbate these hazards in the coming decades.

Bushfire risk is elevated due to the suburb's proximity to bushland. Hotter, drier conditions increase the likelihood of ignition and spread of fires. Residents should maintain their properties and be prepared to evacuate if necessary.

Heatwaves are becoming more frequent and intense, posing a significant health risk, especially for the elderly and those with pre-existing conditions. Urban heat island effects can further amplify temperatures in built-up areas.

Flooding is a concern due to heavy rainfall events and localized stormwater runoff. Improved drainage infrastructure and property-level flood mitigation measures can help reduce this risk.

Addressing these climate risks requires a combination of individual preparedness, community-level adaptation strategies, and government policies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

Data sources: BOM · CSIRO · ACT Emergency Services Agency · ACT Government Environment

Local Government Resources

ACT Government

Climate Strategy Flood Maps Emergency Services

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the main climate change risks in Monash?

The main climate change risks in Monash are bushfires, heatwaves, and flooding. These risks are expected to increase in the coming decades due to changes in temperature and rainfall patterns.

How can I prepare my home for a bushfire?

You can prepare your home for a bushfire by clearing vegetation around your property, maintaining gutters and downpipes, and developing a bushfire survival plan.

What can I do to stay cool during a heatwave?

To stay cool during a heatwave, stay indoors in air-conditioned environments, drink plenty of water, and avoid strenuous activity.

Where can I find information about flood risks in Monash?

You can find information about flood risks in Monash on the ACT Government Environment website, including flood maps and advice on flood preparedness.

How is the ACT Government addressing climate change?

The ACT Government has a climate change strategy that includes targets for reducing greenhouse gas emissions and adapting to the impacts of climate change.