Climate Risk Profile: Narrabundah, ACT

Narrabundah, Australian Capital Territory· 2604

Medium Risk

Updated Mar 2026

Narrabundah faces moderate risks from flooding, bushfires, and heatwaves, which are projected to increase with climate change. The suburb's proximity to bushland and waterways contributes to these risks. Residents should prepare for more frequent extreme weather events.

Overall Risk Score

52/100

Medium

Confidence: Medium

Hazard Breakdown

Flood

4.0

Bushfire

6.0

Heat

5.0

Coastal

1.0

Climate Hazard Breakdown for Narrabundah

increasing

Flood

40/100

Narrabundah faces a moderate risk of flooding, primarily from intense rainfall events and the nearby Molonglo River. While the area is not directly on the floodplain, localized flooding can occur.

Key drivers:

·Increased rainfall intensity
·Urban development

increasing

Bushfire

60/100

Narrabundah has a moderate to high bushfire risk due to its proximity to bushland areas. The risk is exacerbated by dry conditions and strong winds, particularly during the summer months.

Key drivers:

·Dry vegetation
·High temperatures

increasing

Heat

50/100

Narrabundah is experiencing an increase in the frequency and intensity of heatwaves. This poses a risk to vulnerable populations, such as the elderly and those with chronic health conditions.

Key drivers:

·Climate change
·Urban heat island effect

stable

Coastal

10/100

Narrabundah is located inland and does not face any direct coastal risks.

stable

Wind

24/100

Moderate wind risk — gusty summer winds

stable

Storm

28/100

Moderate storm risk — spring/summer thunderstorms

stable

Social

18/100

Moderate social stability — high public sector

increasing

Energy

32/100

Moderate energy costs — heating and cooling

In-Depth Climate Risk Guides for Narrabundah

Should I Buy

Property buying guide with climate risk assessment

Flood Risk

Flood zone mapping, historical events, and projections

Bushfire Risk

BAL assessment, vegetation proximity, and fire history

Climate Safety

Multi-hazard safety assessment to 2050

Storm Risk

Severe weather, hail, and wind risk analysis

Heat Risk

Extreme heat days, urban heat island, and cooling costs

Insurance Costs

Premium estimates and insurance availability

Investment Score

Climate-adjusted property investment analysis

Detailed Hazard Analysis

heat Risk

50/100

Narrabundah is experiencing an increase in the frequency and intensity of heatwaves. This poses a risk to vulnerable populations, such as the elderly and those with chronic health conditions.

Primary Drivers

·Climate change
·Urban heat island effect

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

5.5

2050

6.5

Data source

flood Risk

40/100

Narrabundah faces a moderate risk of flooding, primarily from intense rainfall events and the nearby Molonglo River. While the area is not directly on the floodplain, localized flooding can occur.

Primary Drivers

·Increased rainfall intensity
·Urban development
·Climate change

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

4.5

2050

5.5

Data source

coastal Risk

10/100

Narrabundah is located inland and does not face any direct coastal risks.

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

1.0

2050

1.0

Data source

bushfire Risk

60/100

Narrabundah has a moderate to high bushfire risk due to its proximity to bushland areas. The risk is exacerbated by dry conditions and strong winds, particularly during the summer months.

Primary Drivers

·Dry vegetation
·High temperatures
·Strong winds
·Climate change

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

6.5

2050

7.5

Data source

What This Means for Property Owners

Insurance Outlook

Insurance premiums may increase due to climate risks.

Price Impact

Property values may be affected by increased climate risks.

Buyer Checklist

1.Check flood maps and bushfire-prone area designations.
2.Assess property's vulnerability to heatwaves.
3.Inquire about insurance costs and coverage.
4.Consider energy efficiency and water conservation measures.

Local Climate Evidence

Flood Evidence

Nearest Waterway: Molonglo River
Elevation Range: 580-620m
Flood Zone: Low to Moderate

Bushfire Evidence

Distance to Bushland: Adjacent to Red Hill Nature Reserve
Planning Overlay: ACTmapi
Bushfire Prone Area: Yes

Heat Evidence

Avg January Max Temp: 28.5°C
Heat Stress Days/Year: 3 days

Coastal Evidence

Distance to Coast: 150 km
Sea Level Rise Exposure: Not Applicable
Erosion Risk: Not Applicable

Historical Climate Events

2003

bushfireCatastrophic

The 2003 Canberra bushfires caused widespread damage and loss of life in the region, impacting Narrabundah with smoke and ember attacks.

Source

2018

heatwaveModerate

A prolonged heatwave in January 2018 resulted in record-breaking temperatures and increased heat stress in Narrabundah.

Source

2022

floodModerate

Heavy rainfall in 2022 caused localized flooding in parts of Canberra, including Narrabundah, leading to road closures and property damage.

Source

Climate Outlook to 2050

Projections based on CSIRO and BOM climate modelling. Scenario: RCP8.5

Hazard	Today	2030	2050
flood	40	4.5(+0.5)	5.5(+1.5)
bushfire	60	6.5(+0.5)	7.5(+1.5)
heat	50	5.5(+0.5)	6.5(+1.5)
coastal	10	1.0	1.0

By 2030, Narrabundah is projected to experience a moderate increase in flood, bushfire, and heatwave risks under a high emissions scenario. Increased rainfall intensity and prolonged dry periods will exacerbate these hazards.

CSIRO Climate Projections

Adaptation Recommendations

Improve stormwater drainage

Near-term

Upgrade stormwater infrastructure to handle increased rainfall intensity and reduce the risk of localized flooding.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Bushfire risk mitigation

Immediate

Implement bushfire risk reduction measures, such as vegetation management and community education programs.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Heatwave preparedness

Near-term

Develop a heatwave preparedness plan to protect vulnerable populations, including establishing cooling centers and providing public health advice.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

Community awareness programs

Long-term

Conduct community awareness programs to educate residents about climate risks and adaptation measures.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

About Narrabundah's Climate Risk Profile

Narrabundah, a suburb of Canberra, is increasingly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. The primary risks include flooding from intense rainfall and the nearby Molonglo River, bushfires due to its proximity to bushland, and heatwaves affecting vulnerable populations.

Flooding is a concern due to increased rainfall intensity and potential urban development impacts. While not directly on a floodplain, localized flooding can occur, disrupting transportation and damaging property. Bushfire risk is elevated by dry conditions and strong winds, particularly during the summer months. The urban heat island effect exacerbates heatwave impacts, posing health risks to residents.

Climate projections indicate that these risks will intensify in the coming decades. Increased temperatures and altered rainfall patterns will lead to more frequent and severe extreme weather events. Adaptation measures are crucial to protect the community and infrastructure.

Residents should stay informed about weather forecasts and emergency alerts, maintain their properties to reduce fire hazards, and take steps to stay cool during heatwaves. Community-level initiatives, such as improved stormwater management and bushfire mitigation strategies, are also essential.

Data sources: BOM · CSIRO · ACT Emergency Services Agency · ACT Government Environment, Planning and Sustainable Development Directorate

Local Government Resources

ACT Government

Climate Strategy Flood Maps Emergency Services

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the main climate change risks in Narrabundah?

The main climate change risks in Narrabundah are flooding, bushfires, and heatwaves. These risks are projected to increase in the coming decades due to climate change.

How can I prepare my property for flooding?

You can prepare your property for flooding by clearing gutters and downpipes, raising electrical appliances, and storing valuables in a safe place. Check the ACT flood maps to understand your property's risk.

What should I do during a heatwave?

During a heatwave, stay indoors in air-conditioned environments, drink plenty of water, and avoid strenuous activities. Check on vulnerable neighbors and family members.

How can I reduce my bushfire risk?

Reduce your bushfire risk by maintaining your property, clearing vegetation around your home, and having a bushfire survival plan. Stay informed about fire danger ratings and warnings.

Where can I find more information about climate change in the ACT?

You can find more information about climate change in the ACT on the ACT Government's Environment, Planning and Sustainable Development Directorate website.

Get your property's risk report

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