Climate Risk Profile: Oaks Estate, ACT

Oaks Estate, Australian Capital Territory· 2620

Medium Risk

Updated Apr 2026

Oaks Estate faces moderate risks from flooding, bushfires, and heatwaves. Climate change is expected to exacerbate these risks in the future. Residents should prepare for more frequent and intense extreme weather events.

Overall Risk Score

55/100

Medium

Confidence: Medium

Hazard Breakdown

Flood

4.0

Bushfire

6.0

Heat

6.0

Coastal

1.0

Climate Hazard Breakdown for Oaks Estate

stable

Flood

40/100

Oaks Estate has a moderate risk of flooding due to its proximity to the Queanbeyan River. Localized flooding can occur during periods of heavy rainfall.

Key drivers:

·Proximity to river
·Rainfall patterns

increasing

Bushfire

60/100

The area surrounding Oaks Estate has a high bushfire risk due to the presence of grasslands and bushland. Hot, dry summers increase the likelihood of bushfires.

Key drivers:

·Dry climate
·Vegetation density

increasing

Heat

60/100

Oaks Estate experiences moderately high temperatures during summer, with potential for heatwaves. Climate change is expected to increase the frequency and intensity of heat events.

Key drivers:

·Climate change
·Urban heat island effect

stable

Coastal

10/100

Oaks Estate is not exposed to coastal risks due to its inland location.

stable

Wind

24/100

Moderate wind risk — gusty summer winds

stable

Storm

28/100

Moderate storm risk — spring/summer thunderstorms

stable

Social

18/100

Moderate social stability — high public sector

increasing

Energy

32/100

Moderate energy costs — heating and cooling

In-Depth Climate Risk Guides for Oaks Estate

Should I Buy

Property buying guide with climate risk assessment

Flood Risk

Flood zone mapping, historical events, and projections

Bushfire Risk

BAL assessment, vegetation proximity, and fire history

Climate Safety

Multi-hazard safety assessment to 2050

Storm Risk

Severe weather, hail, and wind risk analysis

Heat Risk

Extreme heat days, urban heat island, and cooling costs

Insurance Costs

Premium estimates and insurance availability

Investment Score

Climate-adjusted property investment analysis

Detailed Hazard Analysis

heat Risk

60/100

Oaks Estate experiences moderately high temperatures during summer, with potential for heatwaves. Climate change is expected to increase the frequency and intensity of heat events.

Primary Drivers

·Climate change
·Urban heat island effect

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

6.5

2050

7.0

Data source

flood Risk

40/100

Oaks Estate has a moderate risk of flooding due to its proximity to the Queanbeyan River. Localized flooding can occur during periods of heavy rainfall.

Primary Drivers

·Proximity to river
·Rainfall patterns
·Urban development

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

4.5

2050

5.0

Data source

coastal Risk

10/100

Oaks Estate is not exposed to coastal risks due to its inland location.

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

1.0

2050

1.0

Data source

bushfire Risk

60/100

The area surrounding Oaks Estate has a high bushfire risk due to the presence of grasslands and bushland. Hot, dry summers increase the likelihood of bushfires.

Primary Drivers

·Dry climate
·Vegetation density
·Climate change

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

6.5

2050

7.0

Data source

What This Means for Property Owners

Insurance Outlook

Insurance premiums may increase due to flood and bushfire risks.

Price Impact

Properties in high-risk areas may experience a decrease in value.

Buyer Checklist

1.Check flood maps and bushfire prone area designations.
2.Assess property's vulnerability to heatwaves.
3.Review insurance options and potential premium increases.
4.Consider long-term climate risks when making a purchase decision.

Local Climate Evidence

Flood Evidence

Nearest Waterway: Queanbeyan River
Elevation Range: 580-600m
Flood Zone: Low to Moderate

Bushfire Evidence

Distance to Bushland: Adjacent
Planning Overlay: ACTMAPi Bushfire Prone Areas
Bushfire Prone Area: Yes

Heat Evidence

Avg January Max Temp: 28.5°C
Heat Stress Days/Year: 3 days

Coastal Evidence

Distance to Coast: 150 km
Sea Level Rise Exposure: Not Applicable
Erosion Risk: Not Applicable

Historical Climate Events

2020

bushfireModerate

Bushfires impacted the region surrounding Oaks Estate, leading to smoke haze and potential property damage.

Source

2012

floodModerate

Heavy rainfall caused the Queanbeyan River to flood, impacting low-lying areas in and around Oaks Estate.

Source

2009

heatwaveModerate

A prolonged heatwave affected the region, with temperatures exceeding 40 degrees Celsius for several days.

Source

Climate Outlook to 2050

Projections based on CSIRO and BOM climate modelling. Scenario: RCP8.5

Hazard	Today	2030	2050
flood	40	4.3(+0.3)	4.5(+0.5)
bushfire	60	6.4(+0.4)	6.7(+0.7)
heat	60	6.8(+0.8)	7.5(+1.5)
coastal	10	1.0	1.0

By 2030, Oaks Estate is projected to experience a moderate increase in overall climate risk, driven primarily by rising temperatures and an increased risk of bushfires. Flooding risk will also increase slightly.

CSIRO Climate Projections

Adaptation Recommendations

Improve Flood Defenses

Near-term

Invest in flood mitigation infrastructure, such as levees and drainage systems, to protect properties from flooding.

Est. cost: High

Learn more

Enhance Bushfire Preparedness

Immediate

Implement bushfire management plans, including controlled burns and vegetation clearing, to reduce the risk of bushfires.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Develop Heatwave Response Plan

Near-term

Create a heatwave response plan to protect vulnerable populations during periods of extreme heat, including establishing cooling centers and providing public awareness campaigns.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

Promote Water Conservation

Long-term

Encourage water conservation measures to reduce water demand during periods of drought and heatwaves.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

About Oaks Estate's Climate Risk Profile

Oaks Estate, located in the Australian Capital Territory, is subject to a range of climate-related risks. The suburb's proximity to the Queanbeyan River makes it vulnerable to flooding during periods of heavy rainfall. The surrounding grasslands and bushland also pose a significant bushfire risk, particularly during the hot, dry summer months.

Rising temperatures due to climate change are expected to increase the frequency and intensity of heatwaves in Oaks Estate. This could have significant impacts on public health, particularly for vulnerable populations such as the elderly and those with pre-existing medical conditions.

While Oaks Estate is not directly exposed to coastal risks, the broader impacts of climate change, such as changes in rainfall patterns and increased temperatures, will still affect the suburb. It is important for residents to take steps to prepare for these changes and to reduce their carbon footprint.

Local authorities are working to address these risks through a range of measures, including flood mitigation projects, bushfire management plans, and heatwave preparedness strategies. However, individual action is also essential to ensure the safety and well-being of the community.

Data sources: BOM · CSIRO · ACT Emergency Services Agency · ACT Environment, Planning and Sustainable Development Directorate

Local Government Resources

ACT Government

Climate Strategy Flood Maps Emergency Services

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the main climate risks facing Oaks Estate?

Oaks Estate faces risks from flooding, bushfires, and heatwaves, which are expected to worsen with climate change.

How can I prepare my home for a bushfire?

Clear vegetation around your home, install fire-resistant materials, and have a bushfire survival plan.

What should I do during a heatwave?

Stay indoors, drink plenty of water, and avoid strenuous activity. Check on vulnerable neighbors and family members.

Where can I find information about flood risks in Oaks Estate?

The ACT Government's environment website provides information about flood risks and flood maps for the area.

Is Oaks Estate considered a bushfire-prone area?

Yes, Oaks Estate is designated as a bushfire-prone area, requiring specific building standards for new constructions.

Get your property's risk report

This suburb assessment covers the area. For a precise address-level climate risk report for any specific property in Oaks Estate, use our analysis tool.

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