Climate Risk Profile: Page, ACT

Page, Australian Capital Territory

Medium Risk

Updated Apr 2026

Page, ACT, faces increasing risks from bushfires, heatwaves and flooding due to climate change. Residents should prepare for more frequent extreme weather events. Property owners should review insurance coverage and consider adaptation measures.

Overall Risk Score

52/100

Medium

Confidence: Medium

Hazard Breakdown

Flood

4.0

Bushfire

6.0

Heat

5.0

Coastal

1.0

Climate Hazard Breakdown for Page

increasing

Flood

40/100

The suburb has some risk of flooding due to proximity to waterways and low-lying areas. Climate change is expected to increase rainfall intensity, potentially worsening flood events.

Key drivers:

·Increased rainfall intensity
·Urban development

increasing

Bushfire

60/100

Page faces a moderate bushfire risk due to its proximity to bushland areas. Hotter and drier conditions are projected to increase the frequency and intensity of bushfires.

Key drivers:

·Increased temperatures
·Drier conditions

increasing

Heat

50/100

The suburb is likely to experience more frequent and intense heatwaves. This poses a risk to vulnerable populations, such as the elderly and those with chronic health conditions.

Key drivers:

·Rising temperatures
·Urban heat island effect

stable

Coastal

10/100

Page is not exposed to coastal risks.

stable

Wind

24/100

Moderate wind risk — gusty summer winds

stable

Storm

28/100

Moderate storm risk — spring/summer thunderstorms

stable

Social

18/100

Moderate social stability — high public sector

increasing

Energy

32/100

Moderate energy costs — heating and cooling

In-Depth Climate Risk Guides for Page

Should I Buy

Property buying guide with climate risk assessment

Flood Risk

Flood zone mapping, historical events, and projections

Bushfire Risk

BAL assessment, vegetation proximity, and fire history

Climate Safety

Multi-hazard safety assessment to 2050

Storm Risk

Severe weather, hail, and wind risk analysis

Heat Risk

Extreme heat days, urban heat island, and cooling costs

Insurance Costs

Premium estimates and insurance availability

Investment Score

Climate-adjusted property investment analysis

Detailed Hazard Analysis

heat Risk

50/100

The suburb is likely to experience more frequent and intense heatwaves. This poses a risk to vulnerable populations, such as the elderly and those with chronic health conditions.

Primary Drivers

·Rising temperatures
·Urban heat island effect
·Reduced vegetation cover

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

5.5

2050

6.0

Data source

flood Risk

40/100

The suburb has some risk of flooding due to proximity to waterways and low-lying areas. Climate change is expected to increase rainfall intensity, potentially worsening flood events.

Primary Drivers

·Increased rainfall intensity
·Urban development
·Inadequate drainage infrastructure

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

4.5

2050

5.0

Data source

coastal Risk

10/100

Page is not exposed to coastal risks.

Projections (N/A)

2030

1.0

2050

1.0

Data source

bushfire Risk

60/100

Page faces a moderate bushfire risk due to its proximity to bushland areas. Hotter and drier conditions are projected to increase the frequency and intensity of bushfires.

Primary Drivers

·Increased temperatures
·Drier conditions
·Fuel load

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

6.5

2050

7.0

Data source

What This Means for Property Owners

Insurance Outlook

Insurance premiums may increase due to climate-related risks.

Price Impact

Properties in high-risk areas may experience a decrease in value.

Buyer Checklist

1.Check flood maps and bushfire prone area overlays.
2.Assess the property's vulnerability to heatwaves.
3.Review insurance coverage for climate-related events.
4.Consider energy efficiency upgrades to reduce cooling costs.

Local Climate Evidence

Flood Evidence

Nearest Waterway: Ginninderra Creek
Elevation Range: 550-580m
Flood Zone: Some areas are within a designated flood zone.

Bushfire Evidence

Distance to Bushland: Adjacent to bushland reserves.
Planning Overlay: Bushfire Prone Area Overlay applies to some properties.
Bushfire Prone Area: Yes

Heat Evidence

Avg January Max Temp: 28.5°C
Heat Stress Days/Year: 3 days

Coastal Evidence

Distance to Coast: 150 km
Sea Level Rise Exposure: Not applicable.
Erosion Risk: Not applicable.

Historical Climate Events

2018

stormModerate

Severe thunderstorms caused flash flooding and property damage in Canberra.

Source

2003

bushfireCatastrophic

The 2003 Canberra bushfires caused widespread destruction and loss of life.

Source

2017

heatwaveModerate

Canberra experienced a prolonged heatwave with record-breaking temperatures.

Source

Climate Outlook to 2050

Projections based on CSIRO and BOM climate modelling. Scenario: RCP8.5

Hazard	Today	2030	2050
flood	40	4.3(+0.3)	4.6(+0.6)
bushfire	60	6.4(+0.4)	6.8(+0.8)
heat	50	5.6(+0.6)	6.2(+1.2)
coastal	10	1.0	1.0

By 2030, Page is projected to experience a moderate increase in overall climate risk, with notable increases in bushfire and heatwave risks. Flooding risk will also increase due to more intense rainfall events.

CSIRO Climate Projections

Adaptation Recommendations

Prepare a Bushfire Survival Plan

Immediate

Develop and practice a bushfire survival plan with your family. Clear vegetation around your home and ensure you have adequate water supplies.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

Improve Home Energy Efficiency

Near-term

Install insulation, double-glazed windows, and energy-efficient appliances to reduce cooling costs during heatwaves.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Install a Rainwater Tank

Near-term

Collect rainwater for garden use and toilet flushing to reduce water consumption and stormwater runoff.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Support Local Green Infrastructure

Long-term

Advocate for increased green spaces and tree planting in your community to reduce the urban heat island effect and improve stormwater management.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

About Page's Climate Risk Profile

Page is a suburb in the Australian Capital Territory that is increasingly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. The primary risks include bushfires, heatwaves, and flooding.

Bushfire risk is elevated due to the suburb's proximity to bushland. Hotter and drier conditions are expected to increase the frequency and intensity of bushfires, posing a threat to homes and infrastructure. Residents should maintain their properties and have a bushfire survival plan.

Heatwaves are also becoming more frequent and intense, posing a health risk to vulnerable populations. The urban heat island effect can exacerbate these conditions. Increasing green spaces and improving building insulation can help mitigate the impacts of heatwaves.

Flooding is another concern, particularly in low-lying areas. Climate change is expected to increase rainfall intensity, potentially leading to more frequent and severe flood events. Improving drainage infrastructure and avoiding building in flood-prone areas can help reduce flood risk.

Addressing these climate risks requires a coordinated effort from residents, local government, and emergency services. By taking proactive measures, the community can enhance its resilience to the impacts of climate change.

Data sources: BOM · CSIRO · ACT Emergency Services Agency · ACT Government

Local Government Resources

ACT Government

Climate Strategy Flood Maps Emergency Services

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the main climate change risks in Page?

The main climate change risks in Page are bushfires, heatwaves, and flooding. These risks are expected to increase in the future due to climate change.

How can I prepare my home for bushfires?

You can prepare your home for bushfires by clearing vegetation around your home, ensuring you have adequate water supplies, and developing a bushfire survival plan.

What can I do to reduce my risk from heatwaves?

You can reduce your risk from heatwaves by improving your home's energy efficiency, staying hydrated, and avoiding strenuous activity during the hottest part of the day.

Where can I find information about flood risks in Page?

You can find information about flood risks in Page on the ACT Government's City Services website, which includes flood maps and other resources.

How is the ACT Government addressing climate change?

The ACT Government has a climate change strategy that includes targets for reducing greenhouse gas emissions and adapting to the impacts of climate change.