Climate Risk Profile: Scullin, ACT

scullin, Australian Capital Territory· 2614

Medium Risk

Updated Mar 2026

Scullin faces moderate climate risks, primarily from bushfires and heatwaves. Flooding is also a concern. Residents should prepare for more frequent extreme weather events.

Overall Risk Score

52/100

Medium

Confidence: Medium

Hazard Breakdown

Flood

4.0

Bushfire

6.0

Heat

5.0

Coastal

1.0

Climate Hazard Breakdown for scullin

stable

Flood

40/100

Scullin faces a moderate risk of flooding, primarily from heavy rainfall events and potential stormwater runoff. The risk is influenced by local topography and drainage infrastructure.

Key drivers:

·Increased rainfall intensity
·Urban development

increasing

Bushfire

60/100

Scullin has a notable risk of bushfire due to its proximity to bushland areas. Hot, dry conditions and strong winds can exacerbate the risk during the bushfire season.

Key drivers:

·Climate change
·Fuel load

increasing

Heat

50/100

Scullin is experiencing an increase in the frequency and intensity of heatwaves. This poses a risk to vulnerable populations, particularly the elderly and those with pre-existing health conditions.

Key drivers:

·Climate change
·Urban heat island effect

stable

Coastal

10/100

Scullin is not directly exposed to coastal risks due to its inland location.

stable

Wind

24/100

Moderate wind risk — gusty summer winds

stable

Storm

28/100

Moderate storm risk — spring/summer thunderstorms

stable

Social

18/100

Moderate social stability — high public sector

increasing

Energy

32/100

Moderate energy costs — heating and cooling

In-Depth Climate Risk Guides for scullin

Should I Buy

Property buying guide with climate risk assessment

Flood Risk

Flood zone mapping, historical events, and projections

Bushfire Risk

BAL assessment, vegetation proximity, and fire history

Climate Safety

Multi-hazard safety assessment to 2050

Storm Risk

Severe weather, hail, and wind risk analysis

Heat Risk

Extreme heat days, urban heat island, and cooling costs

Insurance Costs

Premium estimates and insurance availability

Investment Score

Climate-adjusted property investment analysis

Detailed Hazard Analysis

heat Risk

50/100

Scullin is experiencing an increase in the frequency and intensity of heatwaves. This poses a risk to vulnerable populations, particularly the elderly and those with pre-existing health conditions.

Primary Drivers

·Climate change
·Urban heat island effect

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

5.5

2050

6.0

Data source

flood Risk

40/100

Scullin faces a moderate risk of flooding, primarily from heavy rainfall events and potential stormwater runoff. The risk is influenced by local topography and drainage infrastructure.

Primary Drivers

·Increased rainfall intensity
·Urban development
·Aging infrastructure

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

4.2

2050

4.5

Data source

coastal Risk

10/100

Scullin is not directly exposed to coastal risks due to its inland location.

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

1.0

2050

1.0

Data source

bushfire Risk

60/100

Scullin has a notable risk of bushfire due to its proximity to bushland areas. Hot, dry conditions and strong winds can exacerbate the risk during the bushfire season.

Primary Drivers

·Climate change
·Fuel load
·Urban sprawl

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

6.5

2050

7.0

Data source

What This Means for Property Owners

Insurance Outlook

Insurance premiums may increase due to climate risks.

Price Impact

Property values may be affected by increased climate risks.

Buyer Checklist

1.Check flood maps
2.Assess bushfire risk
3.Consider energy efficiency
4.Review insurance options

Local Climate Evidence

Flood Evidence

Nearest Waterway: Ginninderra Creek
Elevation Range: 580-620m
Flood Zone: Low to Moderate

Bushfire Evidence

Distance to Bushland: Adjacent to bushland reserves
Planning Overlay: Bushfire Prone Area
Bushfire Prone Area: Yes

Heat Evidence

Avg January Max Temp: 28.5°C
Heat Stress Days/Year: 3 days

Coastal Evidence

Distance to Coast: 150 km
Sea Level Rise Exposure: Not applicable
Erosion Risk: Not applicable

Historical Climate Events

2003

bushfireCatastrophic

The 2003 Canberra bushfires had a devastating impact on the region, including Scullin, causing significant property damage and loss of life.

Source

2018

heatwaveModerate

A prolonged heatwave in early 2018 resulted in increased heat stress and health concerns for vulnerable residents in Scullin.

Source

2022

floodMinor

Heavy rainfall caused localized flooding in parts of Scullin, leading to minor property damage and disruption to traffic.

Source

Climate Outlook to 2050

Projections based on CSIRO and BOM climate modelling. Scenario: RCP8.5

Hazard	Today	2030	2050
flood	40	4.2(+0.2)	4.4(+0.4)
bushfire	60	6.4(+0.4)	6.8(+0.8)
heat	50	5.6(+0.6)	6.2(+1.2)
coastal	10	1.0	1.0

By 2030, Scullin is projected to experience a notable increase in heatwave frequency and intensity, along with a heightened risk of bushfires. Flooding risks may also increase due to more intense rainfall events.

CSIRO Climate Projections

Adaptation Recommendations

Improve Bushfire Preparedness

Immediate

Clear vegetation around homes, create firebreaks, and develop a bushfire survival plan.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

Enhance Heatwave Resilience

Near-term

Install energy-efficient cooling systems, improve home insulation, and establish community cooling centers.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Upgrade Drainage Infrastructure

Near-term

Improve stormwater drainage systems to reduce the risk of localized flooding during heavy rainfall events.

Est. cost: High

Learn more

Promote Water Conservation

Long-term

Implement water-saving measures in homes and gardens to reduce water demand during periods of drought.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

About scullin's Climate Risk Profile

Scullin, located in the Australian Capital Territory, is increasingly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. The suburb's proximity to bushland elevates the risk of bushfires, particularly during dry and windy conditions. Rising temperatures are contributing to more frequent and intense heatwaves, posing health risks to residents.

Flooding is another concern for Scullin, with potential for stormwater runoff and heavy rainfall events to cause localized flooding. The existing drainage infrastructure may need upgrades to cope with increased rainfall intensity.

Climate projections indicate that these risks will intensify in the coming decades. Bushfire seasons are expected to become longer and more severe, while heatwaves will become more frequent and hotter. Adapting to these changes is crucial for protecting the community and infrastructure.

Residents can take steps to mitigate these risks, such as maintaining their properties to reduce bushfire fuel loads, preparing for heatwaves, and understanding local flood risks. Community-level adaptation strategies, such as improved drainage and bushfire management, are also essential.

Data sources: BOM · CSIRO · ACT Emergency Services Agency · ACT Environment, Planning and Sustainable Development Directorate

Local Government Resources

ACT Government

Climate Strategy Flood Maps Emergency Services

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the main climate change risks in Scullin?

The main climate change risks in Scullin are bushfires, heatwaves, and flooding. These risks are expected to increase in the coming decades due to climate change.

How can I prepare my home for a bushfire in Scullin?

You can prepare your home for a bushfire by clearing vegetation around your home, creating firebreaks, and developing a bushfire survival plan. Refer to the ACT Emergency Services Agency for detailed guidance.

What should I do during a heatwave in Scullin?

During a heatwave, stay indoors in air-conditioned environments, drink plenty of water, and avoid strenuous activities. Check on vulnerable neighbors and family members.

Where can I find information about flood risks in Scullin?

Information about flood risks in Scullin can be found on the ACT Environment, Planning and Sustainable Development Directorate website, which provides flood maps and guidance on flood preparedness.

What is the ACT Government doing to address climate change?

The ACT Government has a comprehensive climate change strategy that includes targets for reducing greenhouse gas emissions, promoting renewable energy, and adapting to the impacts of climate change. Details can be found on the ACT Environment, Planning and Sustainable Development Directorate website.