Climate Risk Assessment for Spence, ACT
Spence is a suburb in the Australian Capital Territory that faces moderate risks from climate change. The primary concerns are increasing bushfire risk and more frequent heatwaves. Residents should prepare for these potential impacts.
Overall Risk Score
Confidence: Medium
Hazard Breakdown
Climate Hazard Breakdown for Spence
Flood
Spence has a moderate risk of flooding, primarily from intense rainfall events and localised stormwater runoff. Some areas are more susceptible due to topography and drainage capacity.
Key drivers:
- ·Increased rainfall intensity
- ·Urban development
Bushfire
Spence faces a notable bushfire risk due to its proximity to surrounding bushland. Hot, dry conditions and strong winds can exacerbate the risk during the bushfire season.
Key drivers:
- ·Increased frequency of heatwaves
- ·Drier vegetation
Heat
Spence is likely to experience more frequent and intense heatwaves in the future. This poses a risk to vulnerable populations, such as the elderly and those with pre-existing health conditions.
Key drivers:
- ·Rising global temperatures
- ·Urban heat island effect
Coastal
Spence is not directly exposed to coastal risks due to its inland location.
Wind
Moderate wind risk — gusty summer winds
Storm
Moderate storm risk — spring/summer thunderstorms
Social
Moderate social stability — high public sector
Energy
Moderate energy costs — heating and cooling
In-Depth Climate Risk Guides for Spence
Property buying guide with climate risk assessment
Flood zone mapping, historical events, and projections
BAL assessment, vegetation proximity, and fire history
Multi-hazard safety assessment to 2050
Severe weather, hail, and wind risk analysis
Extreme heat days, urban heat island, and cooling costs
Premium estimates and insurance availability
Climate-adjusted property investment analysis
Detailed Hazard Analysis
heat Risk
Spence is likely to experience more frequent and intense heatwaves in the future. This poses a risk to vulnerable populations, such as the elderly and those with pre-existing health conditions.
Primary Drivers
- ·Rising global temperatures
- ·Urban heat island effect
Projections (RCP8.5)
2030
5.4
2050
5.8
flood Risk
Spence has a moderate risk of flooding, primarily from intense rainfall events and localised stormwater runoff. Some areas are more susceptible due to topography and drainage capacity.
Primary Drivers
- ·Increased rainfall intensity
- ·Urban development
- ·Aging infrastructure
Projections (RCP8.5)
2030
4.8
2050
5.2
coastal Risk
Spence is not directly exposed to coastal risks due to its inland location.
Projections (RCP8.5)
2030
1.0
2050
1.0
bushfire Risk
Spence faces a notable bushfire risk due to its proximity to surrounding bushland. Hot, dry conditions and strong winds can exacerbate the risk during the bushfire season.
Primary Drivers
- ·Increased frequency of heatwaves
- ·Drier vegetation
- ·Wind patterns
Projections (RCP8.5)
2030
6.3
2050
6.8
What This Means for Property Owners
Insurance Outlook
Insurance premiums may increase due to bushfire and flood risk.
Price Impact
Properties in high-risk areas may experience a decrease in value.
Buyer Checklist
- 1.Check bushfire risk maps
- 2.Assess flood risk
- 3.Review insurance options
- 4.Consider energy efficiency upgrades
Local Climate Evidence
Flood Evidence
- Nearest Waterway
- Ginninderra Creek
- Elevation Range
- 580-620m
- Flood Zone
- Low-lying areas near Ginninderra Creek
Localized flooding can occur during heavy rainfall events.
View council flood mapBushfire Evidence
- Distance to Bushland
- Adjacent to nature reserves
- Planning Overlay
- ACT Emergency Services Agency Bushfire Overlay
- Bushfire Prone Area
- Yes
Spence is located in a designated bushfire-prone area.
Heat Evidence
- Avg January Max Temp
- 28.5°C
- Heat Stress Days/Year
- 3 days
Heatwaves are becoming more frequent and intense in Canberra.
Coastal Evidence
- Distance to Coast
- 150 km
- Sea Level Rise Exposure
- Not applicable
- Erosion Risk
- Not applicable
Historical Climate Events
Climate Outlook to 2050
Projections based on CSIRO and BOM climate modelling. Scenario: RCP8.5
| Hazard | Today | 2030 | 2050 |
|---|---|---|---|
| flood | 45 | 4.8(+0.3) | 5.0(+0.5) |
| bushfire | 60 | 6.4(+0.4) | 6.8(+0.8) |
| heat | 50 | 5.6(+0.6) | 6.0(+1.0) |
| coastal | 10 | 1.0 | 1.0 |
By 2030, Spence is projected to experience a moderate increase in overall climate risk, with notable increases in bushfire and heatwave risks.
CSIRO Climate ProjectionsAdaptation Recommendations
Improve Bushfire Preparedness
ImmediateClear vegetation around properties, develop a bushfire survival plan, and stay informed about fire danger ratings.
Est. cost: Low
Learn moreEnhance Home Cooling
Near-termInstall energy-efficient air conditioning, improve insulation, and use shading to reduce heat gain.
Est. cost: Medium
Learn moreUpgrade Stormwater Drainage
Near-termImprove stormwater drainage infrastructure to reduce the risk of localized flooding.
Est. cost: High
Learn morePromote Water Conservation
Long-termImplement water-saving measures to reduce water demand during periods of drought.
Est. cost: Low
Learn moreAbout Spence's Climate Risk Profile
Spence, located in the Belconnen district of Canberra, is projected to experience increasing climate-related challenges in the coming decades. The most significant risks are associated with bushfires and heatwaves, driven by rising temperatures and drier conditions.
The bushfire risk is elevated due to the suburb's proximity to surrounding bushland. As climate change intensifies, the frequency and severity of bushfires are expected to increase, posing a threat to property and human safety. Residents should maintain their properties and stay informed about bushfire safety measures.
Heatwaves are also a growing concern for Spence. With rising average temperatures, the suburb is likely to experience more frequent and intense heatwaves, which can have adverse health impacts, particularly for vulnerable populations. It is important to take precautions during heatwaves, such as staying hydrated and seeking air-conditioned environments.
Flooding is a less significant but still relevant risk for Spence. Intense rainfall events can lead to localised flooding, especially in areas with poor drainage. The ACT government is working to improve stormwater management and reduce flood risks.
While Spence is not directly exposed to coastal risks, the broader impacts of climate change, such as disruptions to supply chains and economic activity, could indirectly affect the suburb.
Data sources: BOM · CSIRO · ACT Emergency Services Agency · ACT Environment and Planning Directorate
Local Government Resources
ACT Government
Frequently Asked Questions
What are the main climate change risks for Spence?
The main climate change risks for Spence are increasing bushfire risk, more frequent and intense heatwaves, and localized flooding.
How can I prepare my home for bushfires?
You can prepare your home for bushfires by clearing vegetation around your property, developing a bushfire survival plan, and staying informed about fire danger ratings.
What can I do to stay cool during heatwaves?
During heatwaves, it is important to stay hydrated, seek air-conditioned environments, and avoid strenuous activity during the hottest part of the day.
Where can I find information about flood risks in Spence?
You can find information about flood risks in Spence on the ACT Government's Environment and Planning website.
Is climate change going to affect my insurance premiums?
Yes, climate change is likely to lead to increased insurance premiums, particularly for properties in high-risk areas.
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