Climate Risk Assessment for Spence, ACT

Spence, Australian Capital Territory· 2615
Medium Risk
Updated Apr 2026

Spence is a suburb in the Australian Capital Territory that faces moderate risks from climate change. The primary concerns are increasing bushfire risk and more frequent heatwaves. Residents should prepare for these potential impacts.

Overall Risk Score

52/100
Medium

Confidence: Medium

Hazard Breakdown

Flood
4.5
Bushfire
6.0
Heat
5.0
Coastal
1.0

Climate Hazard Breakdown for Spence

increasing

Flood

45/100

Spence has a moderate risk of flooding, primarily from intense rainfall events and localised stormwater runoff. Some areas are more susceptible due to topography and drainage capacity.

Key drivers:

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Urban development
increasing

Bushfire

60/100

Spence faces a notable bushfire risk due to its proximity to surrounding bushland. Hot, dry conditions and strong winds can exacerbate the risk during the bushfire season.

Key drivers:

  • ·Increased frequency of heatwaves
  • ·Drier vegetation
increasing

Heat

50/100

Spence is likely to experience more frequent and intense heatwaves in the future. This poses a risk to vulnerable populations, such as the elderly and those with pre-existing health conditions.

Key drivers:

  • ·Rising global temperatures
  • ·Urban heat island effect
stable

Coastal

10/100

Spence is not directly exposed to coastal risks due to its inland location.

stable

Wind

24/100

Moderate wind risk — gusty summer winds

stable

Storm

28/100

Moderate storm risk — spring/summer thunderstorms

stable

Social

18/100

Moderate social stability — high public sector

increasing

Energy

32/100

Moderate energy costs — heating and cooling

In-Depth Climate Risk Guides for Spence

Detailed Hazard Analysis

heat Risk

50/100

Spence is likely to experience more frequent and intense heatwaves in the future. This poses a risk to vulnerable populations, such as the elderly and those with pre-existing health conditions.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Rising global temperatures
  • ·Urban heat island effect

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

5.4

2050

5.8

Data source

flood Risk

45/100

Spence has a moderate risk of flooding, primarily from intense rainfall events and localised stormwater runoff. Some areas are more susceptible due to topography and drainage capacity.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Urban development
  • ·Aging infrastructure

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

4.8

2050

5.2

Data source

coastal Risk

10/100

Spence is not directly exposed to coastal risks due to its inland location.

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

1.0

2050

1.0

Data source

bushfire Risk

60/100

Spence faces a notable bushfire risk due to its proximity to surrounding bushland. Hot, dry conditions and strong winds can exacerbate the risk during the bushfire season.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased frequency of heatwaves
  • ·Drier vegetation
  • ·Wind patterns

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

6.3

2050

6.8

Data source

What This Means for Property Owners

Insurance Outlook

Insurance premiums may increase due to bushfire and flood risk.

Price Impact

Properties in high-risk areas may experience a decrease in value.

Buyer Checklist

  • 1.Check bushfire risk maps
  • 2.Assess flood risk
  • 3.Review insurance options
  • 4.Consider energy efficiency upgrades

Local Climate Evidence

Flood Evidence

Nearest Waterway
Ginninderra Creek
Elevation Range
580-620m
Flood Zone
Low-lying areas near Ginninderra Creek

Localized flooding can occur during heavy rainfall events.

View council flood map

Bushfire Evidence

Distance to Bushland
Adjacent to nature reserves
Planning Overlay
ACT Emergency Services Agency Bushfire Overlay
Bushfire Prone Area
Yes

Spence is located in a designated bushfire-prone area.

Heat Evidence

Avg January Max Temp
28.5°C
Heat Stress Days/Year
3 days

Heatwaves are becoming more frequent and intense in Canberra.

Coastal Evidence

Distance to Coast
150 km
Sea Level Rise Exposure
Not applicable
Erosion Risk
Not applicable

Historical Climate Events

2003
bushfireCatastrophic

The 2003 Canberra bushfires caused widespread damage and loss of life in the region.

Source
2018
heatwaveModerate

Canberra experienced a prolonged heatwave with record-breaking temperatures.

Source
2022
floodModerate

Heavy rainfall caused localized flooding in parts of Canberra, including areas near Spence.

Source

Climate Outlook to 2050

Projections based on CSIRO and BOM climate modelling. Scenario: RCP8.5

HazardToday20302050
flood454.8(+0.3)5.0(+0.5)
bushfire606.4(+0.4)6.8(+0.8)
heat505.6(+0.6)6.0(+1.0)
coastal101.01.0

By 2030, Spence is projected to experience a moderate increase in overall climate risk, with notable increases in bushfire and heatwave risks.

CSIRO Climate Projections

Adaptation Recommendations

Improve Bushfire Preparedness

Immediate

Clear vegetation around properties, develop a bushfire survival plan, and stay informed about fire danger ratings.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

Enhance Home Cooling

Near-term

Install energy-efficient air conditioning, improve insulation, and use shading to reduce heat gain.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Upgrade Stormwater Drainage

Near-term

Improve stormwater drainage infrastructure to reduce the risk of localized flooding.

Est. cost: High

Learn more

Promote Water Conservation

Long-term

Implement water-saving measures to reduce water demand during periods of drought.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

About Spence's Climate Risk Profile

Spence, located in the Belconnen district of Canberra, is projected to experience increasing climate-related challenges in the coming decades. The most significant risks are associated with bushfires and heatwaves, driven by rising temperatures and drier conditions.

The bushfire risk is elevated due to the suburb's proximity to surrounding bushland. As climate change intensifies, the frequency and severity of bushfires are expected to increase, posing a threat to property and human safety. Residents should maintain their properties and stay informed about bushfire safety measures.

Heatwaves are also a growing concern for Spence. With rising average temperatures, the suburb is likely to experience more frequent and intense heatwaves, which can have adverse health impacts, particularly for vulnerable populations. It is important to take precautions during heatwaves, such as staying hydrated and seeking air-conditioned environments.

Flooding is a less significant but still relevant risk for Spence. Intense rainfall events can lead to localised flooding, especially in areas with poor drainage. The ACT government is working to improve stormwater management and reduce flood risks.

While Spence is not directly exposed to coastal risks, the broader impacts of climate change, such as disruptions to supply chains and economic activity, could indirectly affect the suburb.

Data sources: BOM · CSIRO · ACT Emergency Services Agency · ACT Environment and Planning Directorate

Local Government Resources

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the main climate change risks for Spence?

The main climate change risks for Spence are increasing bushfire risk, more frequent and intense heatwaves, and localized flooding.

How can I prepare my home for bushfires?

You can prepare your home for bushfires by clearing vegetation around your property, developing a bushfire survival plan, and staying informed about fire danger ratings.

What can I do to stay cool during heatwaves?

During heatwaves, it is important to stay hydrated, seek air-conditioned environments, and avoid strenuous activity during the hottest part of the day.

Where can I find information about flood risks in Spence?

You can find information about flood risks in Spence on the ACT Government's Environment and Planning website.

Is climate change going to affect my insurance premiums?

Yes, climate change is likely to lead to increased insurance premiums, particularly for properties in high-risk areas.

Get your property's risk report

This suburb assessment covers the area. For a precise address-level climate risk report for any specific property in Spence, use our analysis tool.

Check Your flood Risk Now

Check Spence's specific flood risk and see how it compares to nearby suburbs. Enter your address for an instant risk assessment.

Free instant previewCSIRO-powered data

What A$69 could save you from

$7.2B
2022 insured disaster losses*
$300B+
climate risk to property by 2050*
30-120%
insurance premium increases in high-risk areas*

*Industry sources: ICA, APRA, RBA

Full report from A$69 · Australian addresses only · 8 hazard scores · Insurance trajectory · 2030 & 2050 projections