Climate Risk Assessment: Turner, ACT

Turner, Australian Capital Territory· 2612

Medium Risk

Updated Mar 2026

Turner faces moderate climate risks, primarily related to heatwaves and flooding. The suburb's urban environment amplifies the impact of heat, while localized flooding can occur during heavy rainfall events. Bushfire risk is relatively low but not negligible.

Overall Risk Score

52/100

Medium

Confidence: Medium

Hazard Breakdown

Flood

4.5

Bushfire

3.0

Heat

7.0

Coastal

1.0

Climate Hazard Breakdown for Turner

increasing

Flood

45/100

Turner faces a moderate risk of flooding, primarily from intense rainfall events and localised stormwater runoff. The area's proximity to waterways and low-lying areas contributes to this risk.

Key drivers:

·Increased rainfall intensity
·Urban development

stable

Bushfire

30/100

Turner has a relatively low bushfire risk due to its urban location and distance from large areas of dense bushland. However, grassfires and ember attacks from nearby bushland remain a potential concern.

Key drivers:

·Dry vegetation
·High winds

increasing

Heat

70/100

Turner is experiencing an increasing risk of heatwaves and extreme heat events. Urban heat island effect exacerbates the impact, particularly for vulnerable populations.

Key drivers:

·Climate change
·Urban heat island effect

stable

Coastal

10/100

Turner is not exposed to coastal risks due to its inland location.

stable

Wind

24/100

Moderate wind risk — gusty summer winds

stable

Storm

28/100

Moderate storm risk — spring/summer thunderstorms

stable

Social

18/100

Moderate social stability — high public sector

increasing

Energy

32/100

Moderate energy costs — heating and cooling

In-Depth Climate Risk Guides for Turner

Should I Buy

Property buying guide with climate risk assessment

Flood Risk

Flood zone mapping, historical events, and projections

Bushfire Risk

BAL assessment, vegetation proximity, and fire history

Climate Safety

Multi-hazard safety assessment to 2050

Storm Risk

Severe weather, hail, and wind risk analysis

Heat Risk

Extreme heat days, urban heat island, and cooling costs

Insurance Costs

Premium estimates and insurance availability

Investment Score

Climate-adjusted property investment analysis

Detailed Hazard Analysis

heat Risk

70/100

Turner is experiencing an increasing risk of heatwaves and extreme heat events. Urban heat island effect exacerbates the impact, particularly for vulnerable populations.

Primary Drivers

·Climate change
·Urban heat island effect
·Increased frequency of heatwaves

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

7.5

2050

8.0

Data source

flood Risk

45/100

Turner faces a moderate risk of flooding, primarily from intense rainfall events and localised stormwater runoff. The area's proximity to waterways and low-lying areas contributes to this risk.

Primary Drivers

·Increased rainfall intensity
·Urban development
·Climate change

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

5.0

2050

5.5

Data source

coastal Risk

10/100

Turner is not exposed to coastal risks due to its inland location.

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

1.0

2050

1.0

Data source

bushfire Risk

30/100

Primary Drivers

·Dry vegetation
·High winds
·Proximity to bushland

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

3.2

2050

3.5

Data source

What This Means for Property Owners

Insurance Outlook

Insurance premiums may increase due to flood and heat risks.

Price Impact

Properties in low-lying areas may experience some price impact due to flood risk.

Buyer Checklist

1.Check flood maps and insurance costs.
2.Assess property's vulnerability to heat.
3.Consider energy efficiency upgrades.
4.Inquire about local council's climate adaptation plans.

Local Climate Evidence

Flood Evidence

Nearest Waterway: Sullivans Creek
Elevation Range: 580-600m
Flood Zone: Low to Moderate

Bushfire Evidence

Distance to Bushland: 500m
Planning Overlay: ACTmapi
Bushfire Prone Area: No

Heat Evidence

Avg January Max Temp: 28.5°C
Heat Stress Days/Year: 5 days

Coastal Evidence

Distance to Coast: 150 km
Sea Level Rise Exposure: N/A
Erosion Risk: N/A

Historical Climate Events

2018

stormModerate

Severe thunderstorm with heavy rainfall caused localized flooding in parts of Canberra, including areas near Turner.

Source

2020

heatwaveModerate

Prolonged heatwave in January with temperatures exceeding 40°C impacted Canberra, increasing heat stress for vulnerable populations.

Source

2023

floodMinor

Heavy rainfall event led to localized flash flooding in low-lying areas of Turner, causing minor property damage.

Source

Climate Outlook to 2050

Projections based on CSIRO and BOM climate modelling. Scenario: RCP8.5

Hazard	Today	2030	2050
flood	45	4.8(+0.3)	5.1(+0.6)
bushfire	30	3.1(+0.1)	3.3(+0.3)
heat	70	7.8(+0.8)	8.5(+1.5)
coastal	10	1.0	1.0

By 2030, Turner is projected to experience a moderate increase in overall climate risk, primarily driven by rising temperatures and more frequent heatwaves. Flood risk may also increase due to more intense rainfall events.

CSIRO Climate Projections

Adaptation Recommendations

Improve Stormwater Infrastructure

Near-term

Upgrade stormwater drainage systems to handle increased rainfall intensity and reduce the risk of localized flooding.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Implement Urban Cooling Strategies

Immediate

Increase tree canopy cover, promote green roofs and walls, and use cool pavements to mitigate the urban heat island effect.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Develop Community Heatwave Preparedness Plan

Immediate

Establish a community-based plan to support vulnerable residents during heatwaves, including cooling centers and outreach programs.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

Promote Water-Sensitive Urban Design

Long-term

Incorporate water-sensitive urban design principles in new developments to reduce stormwater runoff and improve water quality.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

About Turner's Climate Risk Profile

Turner, located in Canberra, is increasingly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. The most significant threats are rising temperatures and increased frequency of heatwaves, exacerbated by the urban heat island effect. This poses health risks, particularly for elderly and vulnerable residents.

Flooding is another concern, with potential for localized inundation during intense rainfall events. Stormwater systems can be overwhelmed, leading to property damage and disruption. While bushfire risk is lower compared to some other areas in the ACT, the potential for grassfires and ember attacks from surrounding bushland should not be ignored.

Climate projections indicate that these risks will intensify in the coming decades. Adaptation measures, such as improved stormwater management, green infrastructure to mitigate the urban heat island effect, and community awareness programs, are crucial to building resilience in Turner.

Addressing climate change impacts in Turner requires a collaborative effort involving residents, local government, and community organizations. By implementing proactive strategies, the suburb can mitigate risks and create a more sustainable and resilient future.

Data sources: BOM · CSIRO · ACT Emergency Services Agency · ACT Government Environment, Planning and Sustainable Development Directorate

Local Government Resources

ACT Government

Climate Strategy Flood Maps Emergency Services

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the main climate change risks in Turner?

The main climate change risks in Turner are heatwaves, flooding, and to a lesser extent, bushfires. Rising temperatures and more intense rainfall events are the primary drivers of these risks.

How will climate change affect property values in Turner?

Properties in low-lying areas of Turner may experience some price impact due to increased flood risk. However, the overall impact on property values is expected to be moderate.

What is the council doing to address climate change in Turner?

The ACT Government is implementing various climate adaptation and mitigation strategies, including upgrading stormwater infrastructure, promoting green infrastructure, and developing community preparedness plans.

How can I prepare my home for heatwaves in Turner?

You can prepare your home for heatwaves by installing insulation, using window coverings, planting trees for shade, and ensuring you have access to air conditioning or cooling devices.

Where can I find information about flood risks in Turner?

You can find information about flood risks in Turner on the ACT Government's Environment, Planning and Sustainable Development Directorate website, which provides flood maps and related resources.