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Climate Risk Profile: Yarralumla, ACT

Yarralumla, Australian Capital Territory· UNKNOWN· 2600
Medium Risk
Updated Mar 2026

Yarralumla faces moderate risks from flooding and heatwaves, with bushfire risk also present. Climate change is expected to exacerbate these risks, particularly in relation to heatwaves and flooding events.

Overall Risk Score

5.2/10
Medium

Confidence: Medium

Hazard Breakdown

Flood
4.0
Bushfire
3.0
Heat
6.0
Coastal
1.0

Detailed Hazard Analysis

heat Risk

6.0/10

Yarralumla is experiencing an increasing number of heatwave days, particularly during the summer months. This poses a risk to vulnerable populations, such as the elderly and those with pre-existing health conditions.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Rising global temperatures
  • ·Urban heat island effect

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

7.0

2050

8.0

Data source

flood Risk

4.0/10

Yarralumla has a moderate risk of flooding due to its proximity to Lake Burley Griffin and the Molonglo River. Localized flooding can occur during periods of heavy rainfall.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Urban development
  • ·Aging drainage infrastructure

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

4.5

2050

5.5

Data source

coastal Risk

1.0/10

Yarralumla is located inland and does not face any direct coastal risks.

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

1.0

2050

1.0

Data source

bushfire Risk

3.0/10

Yarralumla faces a moderate bushfire risk due to the presence of nearby bushland areas. While the suburb is not directly adjacent to dense forests, ember attack is a potential concern during severe fire weather.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Dry vegetation
  • ·High temperatures
  • ·Strong winds

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

3.5

2050

4.0

Data source

What This Means for Property Owners

Insurance Outlook

Insurance premiums may increase due to flood and fire risk.

Price Impact

Properties in flood-prone areas may experience price reductions.

Buyer Checklist

  • 1.Check flood maps
  • 2.Assess bushfire risk
  • 3.Consider energy efficiency
  • 4.Review insurance options

Local Climate Evidence

Flood Evidence

Nearest Waterway
Lake Burley Griffin
Elevation Range
550-570m
Flood Zone
Medium

Areas near the lake are more prone to inundation.

View council flood map

Bushfire Evidence

Distance to Bushland
500m
Planning Overlay
ACTmapi
Bushfire Prone Area
Yes

Some properties border designated bushfire prone areas.

Heat Evidence

Avg January Max Temp
28.5°C
Heat Stress Days/Year
5 days

Urban areas experience higher temperatures.

Coastal Evidence

Distance to Coast
150 km
Sea Level Rise Exposure
None
Erosion Risk
None

Historical Climate Events

2018
stormModerate

Severe thunderstorms caused flash flooding and property damage in Yarralumla.

Source
2003
bushfireMajor

The 2003 Canberra bushfires impacted the region, with smoke and ember attacks affecting Yarralumla.

Source
2017
heatwaveModerate

A prolonged heatwave in January 2017 resulted in increased hospital admissions and strain on infrastructure.

Source
2010
floodMinor

Heavy rainfall caused localized flooding in low-lying areas of Yarralumla.

Source

Climate Outlook to 2050

Projections based on CSIRO and BOM climate modelling. Scenario: RCP8.5

HazardToday20302050
flood4.04.5(+0.5)5.0(+1.0)
bushfire3.03.3(+0.3)3.5(+0.5)
heat6.07.2(+1.2)8.5(+2.5)
coastal1.01.01.0

By 2030, Yarralumla is projected to experience more frequent and intense heatwaves, as well as an increased risk of flooding due to more extreme rainfall events. Bushfire risk is also expected to rise slightly.

CSIRO Climate Projections

Adaptation Recommendations

Improve drainage infrastructure

Near-term

Upgrade drainage systems to handle increased rainfall intensity and reduce the risk of flooding.

Est. cost: High

Learn more

Implement heatwave management plan

Immediate

Develop and implement a heatwave management plan to protect vulnerable populations during extreme heat events.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Bushfire preparedness

Near-term

Undertake property maintenance to reduce bushfire risk, such as clearing vegetation and maintaining gutters.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

Promote water conservation

Long-term

Encourage water conservation measures to reduce demand on water resources during periods of drought.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

About Yarralumla's Climate Risk Profile

Yarralumla, a suburb of Canberra, is exposed to a range of climate-related risks. The suburb's proximity to Lake Burley Griffin and the Molonglo River makes it susceptible to flooding during periods of heavy rainfall. Climate change is projected to increase the intensity of rainfall events, potentially leading to more frequent and severe flooding in the area.

Bushfire risk is also a concern for Yarralumla, although the suburb is not directly adjacent to dense bushland. Ember attack from nearby fires remains a potential threat, especially during dry and windy conditions. Rising temperatures and prolonged droughts associated with climate change could further increase the risk of bushfires in the region.

Heatwaves are becoming more frequent and intense in Yarralumla, posing a significant risk to public health. The urban heat island effect can exacerbate the impact of heatwaves, particularly in areas with limited green space. Climate change is projected to lead to even more extreme heat events in the future.

While Yarralumla is not directly exposed to coastal risks, the broader impacts of climate change, such as disruptions to supply chains and increased migration, could indirectly affect the suburb. Addressing these climate risks requires a combination of mitigation and adaptation measures, including reducing greenhouse gas emissions, improving drainage infrastructure, and implementing heatwave management plans.

Data sources: BOM · CSIRO · ACT Emergency Services Agency · ACT Government Environment, Planning and Sustainable Development Directorate

Local Government Resources

ACT Government

Climate StrategyFlood MapsEmergency Services

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the main climate change risks for Yarralumla?

The main climate change risks for Yarralumla are increased heatwaves, more intense rainfall leading to flooding, and a higher risk of bushfires.

How will climate change affect property values in Yarralumla?

Properties in flood-prone areas may experience price reductions, while properties with good energy efficiency and bushfire protection measures may be more resilient.

What is the council doing to address climate change in Yarralumla?

The ACT Government has a climate change strategy that includes measures to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, improve resilience to climate impacts, and promote sustainable development.

How can I prepare my home for climate change impacts in Yarralumla?

You can prepare your home by improving energy efficiency, installing rainwater tanks, clearing vegetation around your property, and developing a bushfire survival plan.

Where can I find more information about climate change risks in Yarralumla?

You can find more information about climate change risks in Yarralumla on the ACT Government's environment website, the Bureau of Meteorology website, and the CSIRO website.

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