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Climate Risk in Afterlee, NSW

Afterlee, New South Wales· Kyogle· 2470
Medium Risk
Updated May 2026

Afterlee, NSW, faces increasing risks from flooding, bushfires, and heatwaves due to climate change. Residents should prepare for more frequent extreme weather events. The suburb is not exposed to coastal risks.

Overall Risk Score

52/100
Medium

Confidence: Medium

Hazard Breakdown

Flood
6.5
Bushfire
4.0
Heat
5.0
Coastal
1.0

Climate Hazard Breakdown for Afterlee

increasing

Flood

65/100

Afterlee faces a moderate risk of flooding due to its proximity to waterways and low-lying areas. Climate change is expected to increase rainfall intensity, exacerbating flood risk.

Key drivers:

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Riverine flooding
increasing

Bushfire

40/100

Afterlee has a moderate bushfire risk due to surrounding bushland. Drier conditions and higher temperatures are expected to increase the frequency and intensity of bushfires.

Key drivers:

  • ·Increased temperatures
  • ·Drier vegetation
increasing

Heat

50/100

Afterlee is likely to experience more frequent and intense heatwaves. This poses a risk to vulnerable populations and infrastructure.

Key drivers:

  • ·Rising average temperatures
  • ·Increased frequency of heatwaves
stable

Coastal

10/100

Afterlee is not directly exposed to coastal risks.

stable

Wind

28/100

Moderate wind risk — East Coast Lows and gust fronts

stable

Storm

39/100

Moderate storm risk — severe thunderstorms and hail

stable

Social

21/100

Moderate social stability — mixed urban density

increasing

Energy

35/100

Moderate energy costs — climate-driven cooling demand

In-Depth Climate Risk Guides for Afterlee

Should I Buy

Property buying guide with climate risk assessment

Flood Risk

Flood zone mapping, historical events, and projections

Bushfire Risk

BAL assessment, vegetation proximity, and fire history

Climate Safety

Multi-hazard safety assessment to 2050

Storm Risk

Severe weather, hail, and wind risk analysis

Heat Risk

Extreme heat days, urban heat island, and cooling costs

Insurance Costs

Premium estimates and insurance availability

Investment Score

Climate-adjusted property investment analysis

Detailed Hazard Analysis

heat Risk

50/100

Afterlee is likely to experience more frequent and intense heatwaves. This poses a risk to vulnerable populations and infrastructure.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Rising average temperatures
  • ·Increased frequency of heatwaves
  • ·Urban heat island effect

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

5.5

2050

6.0

Data source

flood Risk

65/100

Afterlee faces a moderate risk of flooding due to its proximity to waterways and low-lying areas. Climate change is expected to increase rainfall intensity, exacerbating flood risk.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Riverine flooding
  • ·Inadequate drainage

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

7.0

2050

7.5

Data source

coastal Risk

10/100

Afterlee is not directly exposed to coastal risks.

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

1.0

2050

1.0

Data source

bushfire Risk

40/100

Afterlee has a moderate bushfire risk due to surrounding bushland. Drier conditions and higher temperatures are expected to increase the frequency and intensity of bushfires.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased temperatures
  • ·Drier vegetation
  • ·Strong winds

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

4.5

2050

5.0

Data source

What This Means for Property Owners

Insurance Outlook

Insurance premiums are likely to increase due to increased climate risks.

Price Impact

Properties in high-risk areas may experience a decrease in value.

Buyer Checklist

  • 1.Check flood maps and bushfire prone area designations.
  • 2.Assess property's vulnerability to heatwaves.
  • 3.Obtain insurance quotes and understand coverage.
  • 4.Review council's climate adaptation plans.

Local Climate Evidence

Flood Evidence

Nearest Waterway
Richmond River
Elevation Range
50-70m
Flood Zone
Yes

The Richmond River poses a flood risk to low-lying areas in Afterlee.

View council flood map

Bushfire Evidence

Distance to Bushland
Adjacent
Planning Overlay
https://www.rfs.nsw.gov.au/
Bushfire Prone Area
Yes

The area is designated as bushfire prone.

Heat Evidence

Avg January Max Temp
31°C
Heat Stress Days/Year
3 days

Heatwaves are becoming more frequent in the region.

Coastal Evidence

Distance to Coast
70 km
Sea Level Rise Exposure
Not applicable
Erosion Risk
Not applicable

Historical Climate Events

2017
floodModerate

Major flooding along the Richmond River affected Afterlee and surrounding areas.

Source
2019
bushfireModerate

Bushfires impacted the region, causing property damage and evacuations.

Source
2020
heatwaveModerate

A prolonged heatwave affected the region, with temperatures exceeding 40°C for several days.

Source
2022
floodMajor

Severe flooding impacted the region, causing widespread damage and displacement.

Source

Climate Outlook to 2050

Projections based on CSIRO and BOM climate modelling. Scenario: RCP8.5

HazardToday20302050
flood657.0(+0.5)7.5(+1.0)
bushfire404.3(+0.3)4.5(+0.5)
heat505.7(+0.7)6.2(+1.2)
coastal101.01.0

By 2030, Afterlee is projected to experience a notable increase in flood and heatwave risks. Bushfire risk will also increase. Coastal risks remain negligible.

CSIRO Climate Projections

Adaptation Recommendations

Improve Flood Defenses

Near-term

Invest in infrastructure to mitigate flood risks, such as levees and improved drainage systems.

Est. cost: High

Learn more

Bushfire Preparedness

Immediate

Implement bushfire management strategies, including controlled burns and community education programs.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Heatwave Action Plan

Near-term

Develop a heatwave action plan to protect vulnerable populations during extreme heat events.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

Community Awareness Programs

Long-term

Conduct community awareness programs to educate residents about climate risks and adaptation measures.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

About Afterlee's Climate Risk Profile

Afterlee is a rural locality in the Kyogle Council area of New South Wales. The primary climate risks for Afterlee include flooding, bushfires, and heatwaves. Climate change is projected to exacerbate these risks, leading to more frequent and intense extreme weather events.

Flooding is a significant concern due to the proximity of waterways. Increased rainfall intensity is expected to increase the risk of riverine flooding. Residents should be aware of flood warnings and have evacuation plans in place.

Bushfire risk is also a concern, particularly during the dry season. Higher temperatures and drier vegetation increase the likelihood of bushfires. Property owners should maintain their properties to reduce fuel loads and be prepared to evacuate if necessary.

Heatwaves are becoming more frequent and intense, posing a risk to vulnerable populations. Residents should take precautions to stay cool during heatwaves, such as drinking plenty of water and avoiding strenuous activity during the hottest part of the day.

While Afterlee is not directly exposed to coastal risks, the broader impacts of climate change, such as disruptions to supply chains and increased insurance costs, may still affect the community.

Data sources: BOM · CSIRO · NSW RFS · Kyogle Council

Local Government Resources

Kyogle Council

Climate StrategyFlood MapsEmergency Services

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the main climate change risks for Afterlee?

The main climate change risks for Afterlee are flooding, bushfires, and heatwaves. These risks are projected to increase in the future due to climate change.

How will climate change affect property values in Afterlee?

Properties in high-risk areas may experience a decrease in value due to increased climate risks. Insurance premiums are also likely to increase.

What can I do to prepare for increased flood risk?

You can prepare for increased flood risk by staying informed about flood warnings, having an evacuation plan in place, and considering flood-proofing your property.

How can I protect myself during a heatwave?

During a heatwave, you should drink plenty of water, avoid strenuous activity during the hottest part of the day, and stay in air-conditioned environments if possible.

Where can I find more information about climate change in Afterlee?

You can find more information about climate change in Afterlee on the Kyogle Council website, the NSW Government website, and the CSIRO website.

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30-120%
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*Industry sources: ICA, APRA, RBA

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