Climate Risk in Alexandria, NSW

Alexandria, New South Wales· City of Sydney· 2015

Medium Risk

Updated Apr 2026

Alexandria faces moderate climate risks, primarily from flooding and heatwaves. Sea level rise and increased storm intensity also pose a threat. Residents should prepare for more frequent and intense extreme weather events.

Overall Risk Score

52/100

Medium

Confidence: Medium

Hazard Breakdown

Flood

6.5

Bushfire

2.0

Heat

7.0

Coastal

5.0

Climate Hazard Breakdown for Alexandria

increasing

Flood

65/100

Alexandria faces a moderate risk of flooding due to its low-lying areas and proximity to waterways. Climate change is expected to increase rainfall intensity, exacerbating flood risk.

Key drivers:

·Increased rainfall intensity
·Sea level rise

increasing

Bushfire

20/100

Bushfire risk in Alexandria is relatively low due to its urban environment and distance from significant bushland areas. However, increased temperatures and drier conditions could slightly elevate the risk.

Key drivers:

·Increased temperatures
·Drier conditions

increasing

Heat

70/100

Alexandria is susceptible to heatwaves, particularly during summer. Climate change is projected to increase the frequency and intensity of heatwaves, posing a significant risk to vulnerable populations.

Key drivers:

·Increased temperatures
·Urban heat island effect

increasing

Coastal

50/100

Alexandria faces a moderate risk from coastal hazards due to its proximity to the coast and low-lying areas. Sea level rise and storm surges could lead to increased coastal inundation and erosion.

Key drivers:

·Sea level rise
·Storm surges

stable

Wind

28/100

Moderate wind risk — East Coast Lows and gust fronts

stable

Storm

39/100

Moderate storm risk — severe thunderstorms and hail

stable

Social

21/100

Moderate social stability — mixed urban density

increasing

Energy

35/100

Moderate energy costs — climate-driven cooling demand

In-Depth Climate Risk Guides for Alexandria

Should I Buy

Property buying guide with climate risk assessment

Flood Risk

Flood zone mapping, historical events, and projections

Bushfire Risk

BAL assessment, vegetation proximity, and fire history

Climate Safety

Multi-hazard safety assessment to 2050

Storm Risk

Severe weather, hail, and wind risk analysis

Heat Risk

Extreme heat days, urban heat island, and cooling costs

Insurance Costs

Premium estimates and insurance availability

Investment Score

Climate-adjusted property investment analysis

Detailed Hazard Analysis

heat Risk

70/100

Primary Drivers

·Increased temperatures
·Urban heat island effect
·Reduced vegetation cover

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

7.5

2050

8.0

Data source

flood Risk

65/100

Alexandria faces a moderate risk of flooding due to its low-lying areas and proximity to waterways. Climate change is expected to increase rainfall intensity, exacerbating flood risk.

Primary Drivers

·Increased rainfall intensity
·Sea level rise
·Urban development

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

7.0

2050

7.5

Data source

coastal Risk

50/100

Alexandria faces a moderate risk from coastal hazards due to its proximity to the coast and low-lying areas. Sea level rise and storm surges could lead to increased coastal inundation and erosion.

Primary Drivers

·Sea level rise
·Storm surges
·Erosion

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

5.5

2050

6.0

Data source

bushfire Risk

20/100

Primary Drivers

·Increased temperatures
·Drier conditions
·Wind patterns

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

2.5

2050

3.0

Data source

What This Means for Property Owners

Insurance Outlook

Insurance premiums may increase due to flood risk

Price Impact

Properties in flood-prone areas may experience price stagnation

Buyer Checklist

1.Check flood maps and historical flood data
2.Assess property's vulnerability to heatwaves
3.Inquire about council's climate adaptation plans
4.Consider potential impacts of sea level rise

Local Climate Evidence

Flood Evidence

Nearest Waterway: Alexandra Canal
Elevation Range: 0-10 meters
Flood Zone: Partially within a 1% AEP flood zone

Bushfire Evidence

Distance to Bushland: 5 km to Centennial Park
Planning Overlay: Not significantly affected by bushfire overlays
Bushfire Prone Area: No

Heat Evidence

Avg January Max Temp: 27.5°C
Heat Stress Days/Year: 3 days

Coastal Evidence

Distance to Coast: 3 km
Sea Level Rise Exposure: Low-lying areas may be exposed to sea level rise
Erosion Risk: Minimal erosion risk

Historical Climate Events

2022

floodModerate

Heavy rainfall caused flash flooding in low-lying areas of Alexandria, disrupting traffic and damaging property.

Source

2020

heatwaveModerate

A prolonged heatwave in January resulted in increased hospital admissions and strain on infrastructure.

Source

2015

stormMinor

A severe storm caused localized flooding and power outages in Alexandria.

Source

Climate Outlook to 2050

Projections based on CSIRO and BOM climate modelling. Scenario: RCP8.5

Hazard	Today	2030	2050
flood	65	7.0(+0.5)	7.5(+1.0)
bushfire	20	2.2(+0.2)	2.5(+0.5)
heat	70	7.8(+0.8)	8.5(+1.5)
coastal	50	5.3(+0.3)	5.7(+0.7)

By 2030, Alexandria is projected to experience more frequent and intense heatwaves, increased flooding risk, and a slight increase in bushfire risk. Sea level rise will also pose a growing threat to coastal areas.

CSIRO Climate Projections

Adaptation Recommendations

Improve drainage infrastructure

Near-term

Upgrade drainage systems to handle increased rainfall intensity and reduce flood risk.

Est. cost: High

Learn more

Implement heatwave early warning system

Immediate

Develop a system to alert residents of impending heatwaves and provide guidance on how to stay safe.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Protect coastal areas

Long-term

Implement measures to protect coastal areas from sea level rise and storm surge, such as building seawalls and restoring natural habitats.

Est. cost: Very High

Learn more

Promote green infrastructure

Near-term

Increase vegetation cover to reduce the urban heat island effect and improve stormwater management.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

About Alexandria's Climate Risk Profile

Alexandria, a suburb of Sydney, is increasingly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. The primary risks include flooding, heatwaves, and coastal inundation. Changes in rainfall patterns and rising sea levels are expected to exacerbate these risks in the coming decades.

Flooding is a significant concern due to the suburb's low-lying topography and proximity to waterways. Increased rainfall intensity, driven by climate change, will likely lead to more frequent and severe flood events. This poses a threat to property and infrastructure.

Heatwaves are another major risk, particularly for vulnerable populations such as the elderly and those with pre-existing health conditions. The urban heat island effect further amplifies the impact of heatwaves in Alexandria. Rising temperatures will increase the frequency and intensity of these events.

Coastal inundation is a growing concern due to sea level rise and increased storm surge. Low-lying areas of Alexandria are at risk of being inundated during extreme weather events. This could lead to property damage and displacement of residents.

Addressing these climate risks requires a combination of adaptation and mitigation measures. Adaptation strategies include improving drainage infrastructure, implementing heatwave early warning systems, and protecting coastal areas. Mitigation efforts focus on reducing greenhouse gas emissions to slow the pace of climate change.

Data sources: BOM · CSIRO · NSW SES · City of Sydney Council

Local Government Resources

City of Sydney

Climate Strategy Flood Maps Emergency Services

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the main climate change risks in Alexandria?

The main climate change risks in Alexandria are flooding, heatwaves, and coastal inundation. These risks are expected to increase in the coming decades due to changes in rainfall patterns, rising temperatures, and sea level rise.

How will climate change affect property values in Alexandria?

Properties in flood-prone areas may experience price stagnation or decline. Properties that are more resilient to climate change impacts, such as those with good drainage and insulation, may be more attractive to buyers.

What is the council doing to address climate change in Alexandria?

The City of Sydney has a climate change adaptation strategy that outlines measures to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and adapt to the impacts of climate change. These measures include improving drainage infrastructure, implementing heatwave early warning systems, and promoting green infrastructure.

How can I prepare my home for climate change impacts?

You can prepare your home for climate change impacts by improving drainage, installing insulation, planting trees, and developing an emergency plan. It is also important to stay informed about climate change risks and take steps to reduce your carbon footprint.

Where can I find more information about climate change in Alexandria?

You can find more information about climate change in Alexandria on the City of Sydney website, the NSW Department of Planning and Environment website, and the CSIRO website.

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2022 insured disaster losses*

$300B+

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30-120%

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