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Climate Risk in Alstonville, New South Wales

Alstonville, New South Wales· 2477
Medium Risk
Updated Apr 2026

Alstonville faces moderate risks from flooding and heatwaves, with bushfire risk being relatively lower. Climate change is expected to increase the severity and frequency of these events, particularly flooding and heatwaves.

Overall Risk Score

58/100
Medium

Confidence: Medium

Hazard Breakdown

Flood
6.5
Bushfire
4.2
Heat
6.8
Coastal
1.0

Climate Hazard Breakdown for Alstonville

increasing

Flood

65/100

Alstonville faces a moderate risk of flooding due to its location and rainfall patterns. Areas near creeks and low-lying regions are particularly vulnerable.

Key drivers:

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Urban development
stable

Bushfire

42/100

The bushfire risk in Alstonville is moderate, with proximity to bushland areas contributing to the potential for fire spread.

Key drivers:

  • ·Dry vegetation
  • ·High temperatures
increasing

Heat

68/100

Alstonville experiences a high risk of heatwaves, particularly during the summer months. Rising temperatures due to climate change are expected to exacerbate this risk.

Key drivers:

  • ·Climate change
  • ·Urban heat island effect
stable

Coastal

10/100

Alstonville is located inland and has a very low risk of coastal hazards such as sea level rise and coastal erosion.

Key drivers:

  • ·Distance from coast
stable

Wind

28/100

Moderate wind risk — East Coast Lows and gust fronts

stable

Storm

39/100

Moderate storm risk — severe thunderstorms and hail

stable

Social

21/100

Moderate social stability — mixed urban density

increasing

Energy

35/100

Moderate energy costs — climate-driven cooling demand

In-Depth Climate Risk Guides for Alstonville

Should I Buy

Property buying guide with climate risk assessment

Flood Risk

Flood zone mapping, historical events, and projections

Bushfire Risk

BAL assessment, vegetation proximity, and fire history

Climate Safety

Multi-hazard safety assessment to 2050

Storm Risk

Severe weather, hail, and wind risk analysis

Heat Risk

Extreme heat days, urban heat island, and cooling costs

Insurance Costs

Premium estimates and insurance availability

Investment Score

Climate-adjusted property investment analysis

Detailed Hazard Analysis

heat Risk

68/100

Alstonville experiences a high risk of heatwaves, particularly during the summer months. Rising temperatures due to climate change are expected to exacerbate this risk.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Climate change
  • ·Urban heat island effect

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

7.2

2050

7.8

Data source

flood Risk

65/100

Alstonville faces a moderate risk of flooding due to its location and rainfall patterns. Areas near creeks and low-lying regions are particularly vulnerable.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Urban development
  • ·Climate change

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

7.0

2050

7.5

Data source

coastal Risk

10/100

Alstonville is located inland and has a very low risk of coastal hazards such as sea level rise and coastal erosion.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Distance from coast

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

1.0

2050

1.0

Data source

bushfire Risk

42/100

The bushfire risk in Alstonville is moderate, with proximity to bushland areas contributing to the potential for fire spread.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Dry vegetation
  • ·High temperatures
  • ·Wind

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

4.5

2050

4.8

Data source

What This Means for Property Owners

Insurance Outlook

Insurance premiums may increase due to flood and bushfire risks.

Price Impact

Properties in flood-prone areas may experience a decrease in value.

Buyer Checklist

  • 1.Check flood maps and historical flood data.
  • 2.Assess bushfire risk and implement mitigation measures.
  • 3.Consider the impact of heatwaves on property comfort and energy costs.
  • 4.Review insurance options and potential premium increases.

Local Climate Evidence

Flood Evidence

Nearest Waterway
Maguires Creek
Elevation Range
60-180m
Flood Zone
Areas near Maguires Creek are prone to flooding.

Historical flood data indicates that Alstonville has experienced several moderate to major flood events in the past.

View council flood map

Bushfire Evidence

Distance to Bushland
Adjacent to bushland reserves.
Planning Overlay
https://www.rfs.nsw.gov.au/
Bushfire Prone Area
Yes

The western and southern edges of Alstonville are identified as bushfire-prone areas.

Heat Evidence

Avg January Max Temp
28.5°C
Heat Stress Days/Year
3 days

The number of days exceeding 35°C is projected to increase in the future.

Coastal Evidence

Distance to Coast
15 km
Sea Level Rise Exposure
Not applicable.
Erosion Risk
Not applicable.

Historical Climate Events

2022
floodMajor

Severe flooding impacted Alstonville, causing widespread damage to homes and infrastructure.

Source
2019
bushfireModerate

Bushfires threatened areas near Alstonville, requiring evacuations and property protection measures.

Source
2017
stormModerate

A severe storm caused flash flooding and damage to property in Alstonville.

Source
2013
floodModerate

Heavy rainfall led to flooding in low-lying areas of Alstonville.

Source

Climate Outlook to 2050

Projections based on CSIRO and BOM climate modelling. Scenario: RCP8.5

HazardToday20302050
flood657.3(+0.8)8.0(+1.5)
bushfire424.4(+0.2)4.6(+0.4)
heat687.5(+0.7)8.1(+1.3)
coastal101.01.0

By 2030, Alstonville is projected to experience an increase in flood and heatwave risks under a high emissions scenario. Bushfire risk may also slightly increase.

CSIRO Climate Projections

Adaptation Recommendations

Improve Drainage Infrastructure

Immediate

Upgrade drainage systems to handle increased rainfall and reduce flood risk.

Est. cost: High

Learn more

Implement Heatwave Early Warning System

Near-term

Develop and implement a heatwave early warning system to protect vulnerable populations.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Promote Bushfire Preparedness

Near-term

Educate residents on bushfire safety and preparedness measures.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

Strengthen Building Codes

Long-term

Update building codes to ensure new constructions are resilient to climate change impacts.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Community Education Programs

Near-term

Run workshops and provide resources to educate the community about climate risks and adaptation strategies.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

About Alstonville's Climate Risk Profile

Alstonville, located in the Northern Rivers region of New South Wales, is susceptible to various climate-related risks. The primary concerns are flooding due to increased rainfall intensity and heatwaves during the summer months. The town's proximity to creeks and low-lying areas makes it vulnerable to flooding, while rising temperatures pose a significant threat to public health during heatwaves.

Bushfire risk is moderate, with the potential for fire spread from nearby bushland areas. While coastal risks are minimal due to its inland location, the broader impacts of climate change, such as disruptions to supply chains and economic activity, can still affect Alstonville.

Climate projections indicate that flooding and heatwave risks will increase in the coming decades. Adaptation measures are necessary to mitigate these risks and protect the community. These measures include improving drainage infrastructure, implementing heatwave early warning systems, and promoting bushfire preparedness.

Addressing climate change impacts in Alstonville requires a coordinated effort involving local government, residents, and businesses. By taking proactive steps, the community can enhance its resilience and ensure a sustainable future.

Data sources: BOM · CSIRO · NSW RFS · Ballina Shire Council

Local Government Resources

Ballina Shire Council

Climate StrategyFlood MapsEmergency Services

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the main climate risks facing Alstonville?

Alstonville faces primary risks from flooding and heatwaves, with a moderate risk of bushfires. Coastal risks are minimal due to its inland location.

How is climate change expected to impact Alstonville in the future?

Climate change is projected to increase the frequency and severity of flooding and heatwaves in Alstonville. Bushfire risk may also increase.

What can residents do to prepare for climate change impacts?

Residents can prepare by improving drainage around their homes, developing a heatwave plan, and implementing bushfire safety measures.

What is the local council doing to address climate change?

The Ballina Shire Council is implementing various strategies to mitigate and adapt to climate change, including upgrading drainage infrastructure and promoting community education programs.

Where can I find more information about climate risks in Alstonville?

You can find more information on the Ballina Shire Council website, the NSW Office of Environment and Heritage website, and the Bureau of Meteorology website.

Is Alstonville a good place to invest in property considering climate change?

While Alstonville has many positive attributes, potential buyers should carefully consider the flood and heatwave risks and factor these into their investment decisions. Reviewing council planning documents and obtaining independent expert advice is recommended.

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