Climate Risk in Ambarvale, NSW

Ambarvale, New South Wales· Campbelltown· 2560
Medium Risk
Updated May 2026

Ambarvale faces moderate risks from flooding and heatwaves, with increasing bushfire risk. Climate change is projected to exacerbate these hazards, requiring proactive adaptation measures. Coastal risks are minimal due to its inland location.

Overall Risk Score

52/100
Medium

Confidence: Medium

Hazard Breakdown

Flood
6.0
Bushfire
4.0
Heat
6.0
Coastal
1.0

Climate Hazard Breakdown for Ambarvale

increasing

Flood

60/100

Ambarvale faces a moderate risk of flooding due to its proximity to waterways and low-lying areas. Climate change is expected to increase rainfall intensity, potentially worsening flood events.

Key drivers:

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Urban development
increasing

Bushfire

40/100

The suburb has a moderate bushfire risk due to nearby bushland. Hotter, drier conditions are projected to increase the frequency and intensity of bushfires.

Key drivers:

  • ·Increased temperatures
  • ·Drier vegetation
increasing

Heat

60/100

Ambarvale is likely to experience more frequent and intense heatwaves. This poses a risk to vulnerable populations, such as the elderly and those with chronic health conditions.

Key drivers:

  • ·Rising average temperatures
  • ·Increased frequency of heatwaves
stable

Coastal

10/100

Ambarvale is located inland and does not face a direct risk from coastal hazards such as sea level rise or coastal erosion.

Key drivers:

  • ·Distance from the coast
stable

Wind

28/100

Moderate wind risk — East Coast Lows and gust fronts

stable

Storm

39/100

Moderate storm risk — severe thunderstorms and hail

stable

Social

21/100

Moderate social stability — mixed urban density

increasing

Energy

35/100

Moderate energy costs — climate-driven cooling demand

In-Depth Climate Risk Guides for Ambarvale

Detailed Hazard Analysis

heat Risk

60/100

Ambarvale is likely to experience more frequent and intense heatwaves. This poses a risk to vulnerable populations, such as the elderly and those with chronic health conditions.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Rising average temperatures
  • ·Increased frequency of heatwaves
  • ·Urban heat island effect

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

6.8

2050

7.5

Data source

flood Risk

60/100

Ambarvale faces a moderate risk of flooding due to its proximity to waterways and low-lying areas. Climate change is expected to increase rainfall intensity, potentially worsening flood events.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Urban development
  • ·Inadequate drainage infrastructure

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

6.5

2050

7.2

Data source

coastal Risk

10/100

Ambarvale is located inland and does not face a direct risk from coastal hazards such as sea level rise or coastal erosion.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Distance from the coast

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

1.0

2050

1.0

Data source

bushfire Risk

40/100

The suburb has a moderate bushfire risk due to nearby bushland. Hotter, drier conditions are projected to increase the frequency and intensity of bushfires.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased temperatures
  • ·Drier vegetation
  • ·Stronger winds

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

4.5

2050

5.1

Data source

What This Means for Property Owners

Insurance Outlook

Insurance premiums may increase due to flood and bushfire risks.

Price Impact

Properties in flood-prone areas may experience price reductions.

Buyer Checklist

  • 1.Check flood maps and bushfire prone area maps.
  • 2.Assess property's vulnerability to heatwaves.
  • 3.Obtain adequate insurance coverage.
  • 4.Develop a bushfire survival plan.

Local Climate Evidence

Flood Evidence

Nearest Waterway
Bunbury Curran Creek
Elevation Range
60-90m
Flood Zone
Areas near Bunbury Curran Creek are susceptible to flooding.

Historical flood events have impacted properties near the creek. Council maintains flood maps and provides guidance on flood preparedness.

View council flood map

Bushfire Evidence

Distance to Bushland
Adjacent to bushland reserves.
Planning Overlay
RFS bushfire prone area map indicates areas of high risk.
Bushfire Prone Area
Yes

Residents should maintain firebreaks and have a bushfire survival plan.

Heat Evidence

Avg January Max Temp
30.5°C
Heat Stress Days/Year
5 days

Elderly and those with chronic illnesses are particularly vulnerable during heatwaves. Council provides cooling centers during extreme heat events.

Coastal Evidence

Distance to Coast
45 km
Sea Level Rise Exposure
Not applicable.
Erosion Risk
Not applicable.

Historical Climate Events

2011
floodModerate

Significant rainfall caused flooding in low-lying areas of Campbelltown, including parts of Ambarvale, impacting homes and businesses.

Source
2013
heatwaveModerate

A prolonged heatwave affected Sydney, with temperatures exceeding 40°C for several days, placing strain on infrastructure and causing health concerns.

Source
2019
bushfireModerate

Bushfires in the surrounding regions caused smoky conditions and increased fire risk in Ambarvale.

Source
2020
stormMinor

A severe thunderstorm brought heavy rain and strong winds to the area, causing localized flooding and property damage.

Source

Climate Outlook to 2050

Projections based on CSIRO and BOM climate modelling. Scenario: RCP8.5

HazardToday20302050
flood606.3(+0.3)6.7(+0.7)
bushfire404.2(+0.2)4.5(+0.5)
heat606.7(+0.7)7.5(+1.5)
coastal101.01.0

By 2030, Ambarvale is projected to experience a moderate increase in overall climate risk, primarily driven by more frequent and intense heatwaves and increased flood risk. Bushfire risk is also expected to rise slightly.

CSIRO Climate Projections

Adaptation Recommendations

Improve Drainage Infrastructure

Near-term

Upgrade drainage systems to handle increased rainfall intensity and reduce flood risk.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Implement Heatwave Early Warning System

Immediate

Develop a system to alert residents of impending heatwaves and provide guidance on staying safe.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

Bushfire Risk Mitigation

Near-term

Implement measures to reduce bushfire risk, such as controlled burns and vegetation management.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Community Education Programs

Long-term

Conduct workshops and distribute information on climate risks and adaptation measures.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

Promote Water Conservation

Long-term

Encourage residents to conserve water through rebates and educational campaigns to mitigate drought impacts.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

About Ambarvale's Climate Risk Profile

Ambarvale, located in the southwestern suburbs of Sydney, is susceptible to several climate-related hazards. The primary concerns are flooding, heatwaves, and bushfires. The suburb's proximity to waterways increases its vulnerability to flooding, which is expected to worsen with increased rainfall intensity due to climate change.

Heatwaves are another significant threat, with projections indicating more frequent and intense heat events. This poses health risks, particularly for vulnerable residents. The urban environment can amplify the effects of heatwaves, creating an urban heat island effect.

Bushfire risk is also a concern, given the presence of nearby bushland. Hotter and drier conditions are expected to increase the likelihood and severity of bushfires. While Ambarvale is located inland, coastal hazards are not a direct threat.

Adapting to these climate risks will require a combination of infrastructure improvements, community awareness programs, and individual preparedness measures. Addressing these challenges proactively will help ensure the long-term resilience of Ambarvale.

Data sources: BOM · CSIRO · NSW State Emergency Service · NSW Rural Fire Service · Campbelltown City Council

Local Government Resources

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the main climate change risks in Ambarvale?

The main climate change risks in Ambarvale are flooding, heatwaves, and bushfires. These risks are projected to increase in the future due to climate change.

How will climate change affect property values in Ambarvale?

Properties in flood-prone areas may experience price reductions. Increased insurance premiums due to flood and bushfire risks may also affect property values.

What is Campbelltown City Council doing to address climate change?

Campbelltown City Council has implemented various initiatives to address climate change, including improving drainage infrastructure, promoting water conservation, and developing a climate strategy.

How can I prepare for heatwaves in Ambarvale?

Stay indoors during the hottest part of the day, drink plenty of water, and check on vulnerable neighbors. Campbelltown City Council provides cooling centers during extreme heat events.

What should I do to prepare for a bushfire in Ambarvale?

Maintain firebreaks around your property, develop a bushfire survival plan, and monitor the RFS website for updates and warnings.

Where can I find information on flood risks in Ambarvale?

You can find information on flood risks in Ambarvale on the Campbelltown City Council website and the NSW State Emergency Service website.

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What A$69 could save you from

$7.2B
2022 insured disaster losses*
$300B+
climate risk to property by 2050*
30-120%
insurance premium increases in high-risk areas*

*Industry sources: ICA, APRA, RBA

Full report from A$69 · Australian addresses only · 8 hazard scores · Insurance trajectory · 2030 & 2050 projections