Climate Risk Profile: Apsley, NSW

Apsley, New South Wales· Walcha

Medium Risk

Updated May 2026

Apsley, NSW, faces moderate climate risks, primarily from flooding and heatwaves. Bushfire risk is also a concern. Residents should prepare for more frequent extreme weather events.

Overall Risk Score

52/100

Medium

Confidence: Medium

Hazard Breakdown

Flood

6.5

Bushfire

4.0

Heat

5.0

Coastal

1.0

Climate Hazard Breakdown for Apsley

increasing

Flood

65/100

Apsley faces a moderate risk of flooding due to its proximity to the Apsley River and surrounding waterways. Intense rainfall events can lead to riverine flooding, impacting low-lying areas and infrastructure.

Key drivers:

·Increased rainfall intensity
·Changes in land use

stable

Bushfire

40/100

The area around Apsley has a moderate bushfire risk due to the presence of grasslands and forested areas. Hot, dry conditions and strong winds can increase the likelihood of bushfires.

Key drivers:

·Dry vegetation
·Increased temperatures

increasing

Heat

50/100

Apsley experiences moderate heat risk, with increasing average temperatures and more frequent heatwaves projected. This can impact vulnerable populations and infrastructure.

Key drivers:

·Rising global temperatures
·Urban heat island effect

stable

Coastal

10/100

Apsley is located inland and does not face any direct coastal risks such as sea level rise or coastal erosion.

stable

Wind

28/100

Moderate wind risk — East Coast Lows and gust fronts

stable

Storm

39/100

Moderate storm risk — severe thunderstorms and hail

stable

Social

21/100

Moderate social stability — mixed urban density

increasing

Energy

35/100

Moderate energy costs — climate-driven cooling demand

In-Depth Climate Risk Guides for Apsley

Should I Buy

Property buying guide with climate risk assessment

Flood Risk

Flood zone mapping, historical events, and projections

Bushfire Risk

BAL assessment, vegetation proximity, and fire history

Climate Safety

Multi-hazard safety assessment to 2050

Storm Risk

Severe weather, hail, and wind risk analysis

Heat Risk

Extreme heat days, urban heat island, and cooling costs

Insurance Costs

Premium estimates and insurance availability

Investment Score

Climate-adjusted property investment analysis

Detailed Hazard Analysis

heat Risk

50/100

Apsley experiences moderate heat risk, with increasing average temperatures and more frequent heatwaves projected. This can impact vulnerable populations and infrastructure.

Primary Drivers

·Rising global temperatures
·Urban heat island effect

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

5.5

2050

6.0

Data source

flood Risk

65/100

Primary Drivers

·Increased rainfall intensity
·Changes in land use
·Aging infrastructure

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

7.0

2050

7.5

Data source

coastal Risk

10/100

Apsley is located inland and does not face any direct coastal risks such as sea level rise or coastal erosion.

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

1.0

2050

1.0

Data source

bushfire Risk

40/100

The area around Apsley has a moderate bushfire risk due to the presence of grasslands and forested areas. Hot, dry conditions and strong winds can increase the likelihood of bushfires.

Primary Drivers

·Dry vegetation
·Increased temperatures
·Wind patterns

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

4.2

2050

4.5

Data source

What This Means for Property Owners

Insurance Outlook

Insurance premiums may increase due to flood and bushfire risks.

Price Impact

Properties in flood-prone areas may experience a decrease in value.

Buyer Checklist

1.Check flood maps and historical flood data.
2.Assess bushfire risk and implement mitigation measures.
3.Ensure adequate insurance coverage.
4.Consider energy efficiency upgrades to reduce heat stress.

Local Climate Evidence

Flood Evidence

Nearest Waterway: Apsley River
Elevation Range: 700-800m
Flood Zone: Areas near the Apsley River are prone to flooding.

Bushfire Evidence

Distance to Bushland: Within 1km of forested areas
Planning Overlay: https://www.rfs.nsw.gov.au/map
Bushfire Prone Area: Yes

Heat Evidence

Avg January Max Temp: 28.5°C
Heat Stress Days/Year: 3 days

Coastal Evidence

Distance to Coast: 150 km
Sea Level Rise Exposure: Not applicable
Erosion Risk: Not applicable

Historical Climate Events

2011

floodModerate

Significant flooding along the Apsley River caused damage to infrastructure and property.

Source

2019

bushfireModerate

Bushfires in the region caused smoky conditions and required local firefighting efforts.

Source

2013

heatwaveModerate

A prolonged heatwave resulted in increased demand for electricity and health concerns for vulnerable residents.

Source

Climate Outlook to 2050

Projections based on CSIRO and BOM climate modelling. Scenario: RCP8.5

Hazard	Today	2030	2050
flood	65	7.0(+0.5)	7.5(+1.0)
bushfire	40	4.2(+0.2)	4.5(+0.5)
heat	50	5.8(+0.8)	6.5(+1.5)
coastal	10	1.0	1.0

By 2030, Apsley is projected to experience a notable increase in heatwave frequency and intensity, along with a heightened risk of flooding due to more intense rainfall events. Bushfire risk will also slightly increase.

CSIRO Climate Projections

Adaptation Recommendations

Improve Flood Defenses

Near-term

Invest in infrastructure to mitigate flood risk, such as levees and improved drainage systems.

Est. cost: High

Learn more

Enhance Bushfire Preparedness

Near-term

Implement community education programs and support residents in preparing their properties for bushfires.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Develop Heatwave Response Plan

Immediate

Create a plan to protect vulnerable residents during heatwaves, including cooling centers and outreach programs.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

Promote Water Conservation

Long-term

Encourage water conservation measures to reduce strain on water resources during droughts and heatwaves.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

About Apsley's Climate Risk Profile

Apsley, located in the New England region of New South Wales, is susceptible to a range of climate-related hazards. The primary concerns are flooding due to its proximity to the Apsley River, and increasing heatwave frequency and intensity.

The risk of flooding is expected to increase with more intense rainfall events. This can impact local infrastructure and residential areas. Residents should stay informed about flood warnings and have an evacuation plan in place.

Bushfire risk is also present, particularly during the dry summer months. While not as severe as some other regions in NSW, the risk should not be ignored. Regular property maintenance and awareness of fire danger ratings are crucial.

Heatwaves are becoming more frequent and intense, posing a risk to vulnerable populations such as the elderly and those with chronic health conditions. It is important to stay hydrated, seek air-conditioned environments, and check on neighbors during heatwaves.

While Apsley is not directly exposed to coastal hazards, the broader impacts of climate change, such as disruptions to supply chains and increased migration, could indirectly affect the community. Adaptation measures and community resilience are essential for navigating these challenges.

Data sources: BOM · CSIRO · NSW SES · NSW RFS

Local Government Resources

Walcha Council

Climate Strategy Flood Maps Emergency Services

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the main climate change risks in Apsley?

The main risks are increased flooding, more frequent and intense heatwaves, and a moderate risk of bushfires.

How can I prepare my property for flooding?

Ensure your property is adequately insured, clear gutters and drains, and have an evacuation plan in place.

What should I do during a heatwave?

Stay hydrated, seek air-conditioned environments, and check on vulnerable neighbors.

Where can I find information about bushfire safety?

Visit the NSW Rural Fire Service website for information on bushfire preparedness and safety.

Is Apsley likely to experience water shortages in the future?

With increasing temperatures and potential droughts, water conservation is important. The council is working on strategies to ensure water security.

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What A$69 could save you from

$7.2B

2022 insured disaster losses*

$300B+

climate risk to property by 2050*

30-120%

insurance premium increases in high-risk areas*

*Industry sources: ICA, APRA, RBA

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