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Climate Risk in Arrawarra, New South Wales

Arrawarra, New South Wales
Medium Risk
Updated May 2026

Arrawarra faces moderate risks from flooding, bushfires, heatwaves, and coastal hazards. Climate change is expected to increase the frequency and intensity of these events, posing challenges for the community.

Overall Risk Score

55/100
Medium

Confidence: Medium

Hazard Breakdown

Flood
6.0
Bushfire
4.0
Heat
7.0
Coastal
5.0

Climate Hazard Breakdown for Arrawarra

increasing

Flood

60/100

Arrawarra faces a moderate risk of flooding, primarily from heavy rainfall and nearby waterways. The risk is expected to increase due to climate change.

Key drivers:

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Sea level rise
increasing

Bushfire

40/100

The bushfire risk in Arrawarra is moderate due to the proximity of bushland areas. Drier conditions and higher temperatures are expected to exacerbate this risk.

Key drivers:

  • ·Increased temperatures
  • ·Drier conditions
increasing

Heat

70/100

Arrawarra is likely to experience more frequent and intense heatwaves. This poses a significant risk to vulnerable populations.

Key drivers:

  • ·Increased greenhouse gas emissions
  • ·Urban heat island effect
increasing

Coastal

50/100

Arrawarra faces a moderate risk from coastal hazards, including erosion and inundation, due to its proximity to the coast. Sea level rise will increase these risks.

Key drivers:

  • ·Sea level rise
  • ·Storm surges
stable

Wind

28/100

Moderate wind risk — East Coast Lows and gust fronts

stable

Storm

39/100

Moderate storm risk — severe thunderstorms and hail

stable

Social

21/100

Moderate social stability — mixed urban density

increasing

Energy

35/100

Moderate energy costs — climate-driven cooling demand

In-Depth Climate Risk Guides for Arrawarra

Should I Buy

Property buying guide with climate risk assessment

Flood Risk

Flood zone mapping, historical events, and projections

Bushfire Risk

BAL assessment, vegetation proximity, and fire history

Climate Safety

Multi-hazard safety assessment to 2050

Storm Risk

Severe weather, hail, and wind risk analysis

Heat Risk

Extreme heat days, urban heat island, and cooling costs

Insurance Costs

Premium estimates and insurance availability

Investment Score

Climate-adjusted property investment analysis

Detailed Hazard Analysis

heat Risk

70/100

Arrawarra is likely to experience more frequent and intense heatwaves. This poses a significant risk to vulnerable populations.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased greenhouse gas emissions
  • ·Urban heat island effect

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

7.5

2050

8.0

Data source

flood Risk

60/100

Arrawarra faces a moderate risk of flooding, primarily from heavy rainfall and nearby waterways. The risk is expected to increase due to climate change.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Sea level rise
  • ·Urban development

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

6.5

2050

7.0

Data source

coastal Risk

50/100

Arrawarra faces a moderate risk from coastal hazards, including erosion and inundation, due to its proximity to the coast. Sea level rise will increase these risks.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Sea level rise
  • ·Storm surges
  • ·Erosion

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

5.5

2050

6.0

Data source

bushfire Risk

40/100

The bushfire risk in Arrawarra is moderate due to the proximity of bushland areas. Drier conditions and higher temperatures are expected to exacerbate this risk.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased temperatures
  • ·Drier conditions
  • ·Vegetation dryness

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

4.5

2050

5.0

Data source

What This Means for Property Owners

Insurance Outlook

Premiums may increase due to climate risks.

Price Impact

Potential for decreased property values in high-risk areas.

Buyer Checklist

  • 1.Check flood maps
  • 2.Assess bushfire risk
  • 3.Consider coastal erosion potential
  • 4.Evaluate heatwave resilience

Local Climate Evidence

Flood Evidence

Nearest Waterway
Arrawarra Creek
Elevation Range
0-20 meters
Flood Zone
Potentially affected

Arrawarra Creek can cause flash flooding during heavy rainfall events.

View council flood map

Bushfire Evidence

Distance to Bushland
Adjacent
Planning Overlay
RFS Bush Fire Prone Land
Bushfire Prone Area
Yes

The area is designated as bushfire prone due to the presence of dense vegetation.

Heat Evidence

Avg January Max Temp
27.5°C
Heat Stress Days/Year
3 days

Heatwaves can cause heat stress, especially for elderly residents.

Coastal Evidence

Distance to Coast
1 km
Sea Level Rise Exposure
Low-lying areas at risk
Erosion Risk
Moderate

Historical Climate Events

2013
floodModerate

Heavy rainfall caused flooding in low-lying areas of Arrawarra.

Source
2019
bushfireModerate

Bushfires in the region caused smoke haze and increased fire danger in Arrawarra.

Source
2017
stormMinor

A severe storm caused minor damage to property in Arrawarra.

Source
2020
heatwaveModerate

Prolonged heatwave conditions affected Arrawarra, with temperatures exceeding 35°C for several days.

Source

Climate Outlook to 2050

Projections based on CSIRO and BOM climate modelling. Scenario: RCP4.5

HazardToday2030205020302050
flood606.3(+0.3)6.6(+0.6)6.5(+0.5)7.0(+1.0)
bushfire404.1(+0.1)4.3(+0.3)4.2(+0.2)4.5(+0.5)
heat707.4(+0.4)7.7(+0.7)7.6(+0.6)8.2(+1.2)
coastal505.2(+0.2)5.4(+0.4)5.3(+0.3)5.7(+0.7)

Under a moderate emissions scenario, Arrawarra is projected to experience a slight increase in overall climate risk, with notable increases in flood and heat risks.

CSIRO Climate Projections

Adaptation Recommendations

Improve Flood Defenses

Near-term

Upgrade drainage systems and build flood barriers to protect properties from flooding.

Est. cost: High

Learn more

Bushfire Preparedness

Immediate

Implement bushfire management strategies, including vegetation clearing and community education programs.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Heatwave Action Plan

Near-term

Develop a heatwave action plan to protect vulnerable populations during extreme heat events.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

Coastal Erosion Management

Long-term

Implement coastal erosion management strategies, such as beach nourishment and seawall construction.

Est. cost: Very High

Learn more

Community Awareness Programs

Near-term

Educate residents about climate risks and adaptation measures.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

About Arrawarra's Climate Risk Profile

Arrawarra, located in New South Wales, is exposed to a range of climate-related risks. The suburb's proximity to waterways and coastal areas makes it vulnerable to flooding and coastal erosion. Bushfire risk is also present due to surrounding bushland.

Climate change is projected to exacerbate these risks. Increased rainfall intensity will likely lead to more frequent and severe flooding events. Rising temperatures and drier conditions will increase the risk of bushfires. Sea level rise will worsen coastal erosion and inundation.

Heatwaves are also expected to become more frequent and intense, posing a significant threat to public health, particularly for vulnerable populations. The community needs to prepare for these changes and implement adaptation measures to reduce their impact.

Addressing these challenges requires a coordinated effort from local government, residents, and other stakeholders. Implementing strategies to mitigate climate change and adapt to its impacts is crucial for ensuring the long-term sustainability and resilience of Arrawarra.

Data sources: BOM · CSIRO · NSW RFS · NSW SES · NSW Environment

Local Government Resources

UNKNOWN

Climate StrategyFlood MapsEmergency Services

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the main climate risks in Arrawarra?

Arrawarra faces risks from flooding, bushfires, heatwaves, and coastal erosion, all of which are expected to worsen with climate change.

How will climate change affect property values in Arrawarra?

Properties in high-risk areas may experience decreased values due to increased insurance premiums and potential damage from climate-related events.

What can I do to prepare for heatwaves in Arrawarra?

Stay hydrated, seek air-conditioned environments, and check on vulnerable neighbors during heatwaves.

Where can I find information about flood risks in Arrawarra?

Contact the local council or visit the NSW State Emergency Service website for flood maps and information.

How can I protect my home from bushfires in Arrawarra?

Clear vegetation around your home, maintain gutters, and have a bushfire survival plan.

Is Arrawarra likely to experience more frequent coastal flooding?

Yes, sea level rise is expected to increase the frequency and severity of coastal flooding in Arrawarra.

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