Climate Risk Profile: Ashby, NSW

Ashby, New South Wales· Clarence Valley· 2463
Medium Risk
Updated May 2026

Ashby, NSW, faces increasing climate risks, particularly from flooding and heatwaves. The suburb's proximity to the Clarence River makes it vulnerable to riverine flooding, which is expected to worsen with climate change. Residents should prepare for more frequent and intense extreme weather events.

Overall Risk Score

52/100
Medium

Confidence: Medium

Hazard Breakdown

Flood
6.5
Bushfire
4.0
Heat
5.5
Coastal
5.0

Climate Hazard Breakdown for Ashby

increasing

Flood

65/100

Ashby is located near the Clarence River and is susceptible to flooding from heavy rainfall and riverine overflow. Climate change is expected to increase the frequency and intensity of extreme rainfall events, exacerbating flood risk.

Key drivers:

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Sea level rise
increasing

Bushfire

40/100

Ashby has a moderate bushfire risk due to surrounding vegetation. Hotter, drier conditions are expected to increase the likelihood of bushfires.

Key drivers:

  • ·Increased temperatures
  • ·Drier conditions
increasing

Heat

55/100

Ashby is expected to experience more frequent and intense heatwaves. This will increase the risk of heatstroke and other heat-related illnesses, especially for vulnerable populations.

Key drivers:

  • ·Increased temperatures
  • ·Urban heat island effect
increasing

Coastal

50/100

Ashby is located inland and has a low coastal risk. Sea level rise may indirectly affect the region through changes to riverine flooding.

Key drivers:

  • ·Sea level rise
  • ·Storm surge
stable

Wind

28/100

Moderate wind risk — East Coast Lows and gust fronts

stable

Storm

39/100

Moderate storm risk — severe thunderstorms and hail

stable

Social

21/100

Moderate social stability — mixed urban density

increasing

Energy

35/100

Moderate energy costs — climate-driven cooling demand

In-Depth Climate Risk Guides for Ashby

Detailed Hazard Analysis

heat Risk

55/100

Ashby is expected to experience more frequent and intense heatwaves. This will increase the risk of heatstroke and other heat-related illnesses, especially for vulnerable populations.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased temperatures
  • ·Urban heat island effect

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

6.0

2050

6.5

Data source

flood Risk

65/100

Ashby is located near the Clarence River and is susceptible to flooding from heavy rainfall and riverine overflow. Climate change is expected to increase the frequency and intensity of extreme rainfall events, exacerbating flood risk.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Sea level rise
  • ·Riverine flooding

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

7.0

2050

7.5

Data source

coastal Risk

50/100

Ashby is located inland and has a low coastal risk. Sea level rise may indirectly affect the region through changes to riverine flooding.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Sea level rise
  • ·Storm surge

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

5.2

2050

5.5

Data source

bushfire Risk

40/100

Ashby has a moderate bushfire risk due to surrounding vegetation. Hotter, drier conditions are expected to increase the likelihood of bushfires.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased temperatures
  • ·Drier conditions
  • ·Vegetation density

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

4.5

2050

5.0

Data source

What This Means for Property Owners

Insurance Outlook

Premiums are likely to increase due to flood and bushfire risk.

Price Impact

Properties in flood-prone areas may experience price reductions.

Buyer Checklist

  • 1.Check flood maps and historical flood data.
  • 2.Assess bushfire risk and property defensibility.
  • 3.Inquire about council plans for climate adaptation.
  • 4.Obtain a building inspection to assess structural integrity.

Local Climate Evidence

Flood Evidence

Nearest Waterway
Clarence River
Elevation Range
5-10 meters
Flood Zone
Yes

The Clarence River is prone to flooding, and Ashby is located in a low-lying area that is susceptible to inundation.

View council flood map

Bushfire Evidence

Distance to Bushland
Adjacent
Planning Overlay
https://www.rfs.nsw.gov.au/plan-and-prepare/bush-fire-prone-land
Bushfire Prone Area
Yes

The area surrounding Ashby contains significant bushland, increasing the risk of bushfires.

Heat Evidence

Avg January Max Temp
31.5°C
Heat Stress Days/Year
3 days

Ashby experiences hot summers, with temperatures frequently exceeding 30 degrees Celsius.

Coastal Evidence

Distance to Coast
20 km
Sea Level Rise Exposure
Indirect
Erosion Risk
Low

Historical Climate Events

2013
floodModerate

The Clarence River experienced moderate flooding, affecting low-lying areas of Ashby.

Source
2019
bushfireModerate

Bushfires in the Clarence Valley region impacted air quality in Ashby.

Source
2017
floodMinor

Minor flooding occurred along the Clarence River, with some localized impacts in Ashby.

Source

Climate Outlook to 2050

Projections based on CSIRO and BOM climate modelling. Scenario: RCP8.5

HazardToday20302050
flood657.0(+0.5)7.5(+1.0)
bushfire404.3(+0.3)4.5(+0.5)
heat556.2(+0.7)6.7(+1.2)
coastal505.2(+0.2)5.5(+0.5)

By 2030, Ashby is projected to experience a notable increase in heatwave frequency and intensity, along with a heightened risk of flooding due to more intense rainfall events. Bushfire risk will also increase slightly.

CSIRO Climate Projections

Adaptation Recommendations

Improve Flood Defenses

Near-term

Install flood barriers, elevate electrical systems, and improve drainage around properties.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Bushfire Preparedness

Near-term

Create a bushfire survival plan, clear vegetation around properties, and install firebreaks.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

Heatwave Preparedness

Immediate

Install air conditioning or fans, improve home insulation, and stay hydrated during heatwaves.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Community Education

Long-term

Participate in community workshops and training sessions on climate risks and adaptation measures.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

About Ashby's Climate Risk Profile

Ashby, located in the Clarence Valley of New South Wales, is increasingly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. The primary risks include flooding, bushfires, and heatwaves. The suburb's location near the Clarence River exposes it to riverine flooding, which is projected to become more frequent and severe due to increased rainfall intensity.

Bushfire risk is also a concern, with hotter and drier conditions increasing the likelihood of fires in the surrounding vegetation. Residents should maintain their properties to reduce fuel loads and stay informed about fire danger ratings.

Heatwaves are expected to become more common and intense, posing a health risk to vulnerable populations, such as the elderly and those with chronic illnesses. It is important to have a plan for staying cool during heatwaves and to check on neighbors who may be at risk.

Sea level rise may indirectly affect Ashby through changes to riverine flooding. While the suburb is not directly on the coast, changes to the river's flow and drainage patterns could exacerbate flood risks. Residents should stay informed about local council plans for managing these risks.

Overall, Ashby faces a range of climate-related challenges that require proactive adaptation measures. By understanding the risks and taking steps to prepare, residents can protect themselves and their properties from the impacts of climate change.

Data sources: BOM · CSIRO · NSW SES · NSW RFS · Clarence Valley Council

Local Government Resources

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the main climate change risks for Ashby?

The main climate change risks for Ashby are flooding, bushfires, and heatwaves. These risks are expected to increase in the future due to climate change.

How can I prepare my property for flooding?

You can prepare your property for flooding by installing flood barriers, elevating electrical systems, and improving drainage. It is also important to have a flood plan and to know where to go in the event of a flood.

What should I do during a heatwave?

During a heatwave, it is important to stay cool, stay hydrated, and check on vulnerable neighbors. If you do not have air conditioning, consider visiting a public cooling center.

How can I reduce my bushfire risk?

You can reduce your bushfire risk by clearing vegetation around your property, creating firebreaks, and having a bushfire survival plan. It is also important to stay informed about fire danger ratings.

Where can I find more information about climate change in Ashby?

You can find more information about climate change in Ashby on the Clarence Valley Council website and the NSW Government's climate change website.

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What A$69 could save you from

$7.2B
2022 insured disaster losses*
$300B+
climate risk to property by 2050*
30-120%
insurance premium increases in high-risk areas*

*Industry sources: ICA, APRA, RBA

Full report from A$69 · Australian addresses only · 8 hazard scores · Insurance trajectory · 2030 & 2050 projections