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Climate Risk in Baradine, New South Wales

Baradine, New South Wales· Warrumbungle Shire Council· 2853
Medium Risk
Updated May 2026

Baradine faces moderate risks from bushfires and flooding, with increasing heat risk. Climate change is expected to exacerbate these risks, particularly bushfire danger. Residents should prepare for more frequent and intense extreme weather events.

Overall Risk Score

52/100
Medium

Confidence: Medium

Hazard Breakdown

Flood
4.5
Bushfire
6.8
Heat
4.2
Coastal
1.0

Climate Hazard Breakdown for Baradine

increasing

Flood

45/100

Baradine faces a moderate risk of flooding, primarily from local rainfall events and the potential for riverine flooding. The risk is influenced by the surrounding topography and drainage patterns.

Key drivers:

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Changes in land use
increasing

Bushfire

68/100

Baradine is located in a region with a high bushfire risk due to the surrounding bushland and dry climate. The risk is exacerbated by hot, dry summers and strong winds.

Key drivers:

  • ·Increased frequency of heatwaves
  • ·Drier vegetation
increasing

Heat

42/100

Baradine experiences moderate heat risk, with hot summers and increasing average temperatures. This can lead to heat stress, particularly for vulnerable populations.

Key drivers:

  • ·Rising average temperatures
  • ·Increased frequency of heatwaves
stable

Coastal

10/100

As an inland suburb, Baradine has a very low risk associated with coastal hazards. Sea level rise and coastal erosion are not significant concerns.

Key drivers:

  • ·Distance from the coast
stable

Wind

28/100

Moderate wind risk — East Coast Lows and gust fronts

stable

Storm

39/100

Moderate storm risk — severe thunderstorms and hail

stable

Social

21/100

Moderate social stability — mixed urban density

increasing

Energy

35/100

Moderate energy costs — climate-driven cooling demand

In-Depth Climate Risk Guides for Baradine

Should I Buy

Property buying guide with climate risk assessment

Flood Risk

Flood zone mapping, historical events, and projections

Bushfire Risk

BAL assessment, vegetation proximity, and fire history

Climate Safety

Multi-hazard safety assessment to 2050

Storm Risk

Severe weather, hail, and wind risk analysis

Heat Risk

Extreme heat days, urban heat island, and cooling costs

Insurance Costs

Premium estimates and insurance availability

Investment Score

Climate-adjusted property investment analysis

Detailed Hazard Analysis

heat Risk

42/100

Baradine experiences moderate heat risk, with hot summers and increasing average temperatures. This can lead to heat stress, particularly for vulnerable populations.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Rising average temperatures
  • ·Increased frequency of heatwaves
  • ·Urban heat island effect (limited)

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

4.5

2050

4.9

Data source

flood Risk

45/100

Baradine faces a moderate risk of flooding, primarily from local rainfall events and the potential for riverine flooding. The risk is influenced by the surrounding topography and drainage patterns.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Changes in land use
  • ·Aging drainage infrastructure

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

4.8

2050

5.2

Data source

coastal Risk

10/100

As an inland suburb, Baradine has a very low risk associated with coastal hazards. Sea level rise and coastal erosion are not significant concerns.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Distance from the coast

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

1.0

2050

1.0

Data source

bushfire Risk

68/100

Baradine is located in a region with a high bushfire risk due to the surrounding bushland and dry climate. The risk is exacerbated by hot, dry summers and strong winds.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased frequency of heatwaves
  • ·Drier vegetation
  • ·Stronger winds

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

7.2

2050

7.8

Data source

What This Means for Property Owners

Insurance Outlook

Insurance premiums may increase due to bushfire and flood risk.

Price Impact

Properties in high-risk areas may experience price stagnation or decline.

Buyer Checklist

  • 1.Check bushfire and flood risk maps.
  • 2.Assess property's vulnerability to extreme weather.
  • 3.Review insurance options and costs.
  • 4.Consider energy efficiency and water conservation measures.

Local Climate Evidence

Flood Evidence

Nearest Waterway
Baradine Creek
Elevation Range
270-300m
Flood Zone
Areas adjacent to Baradine Creek are susceptible to flooding.

Local drainage infrastructure may be inadequate to handle increasingly intense rainfall events.

View council flood map

Bushfire Evidence

Distance to Bushland
Surrounded by Pilliga State Forest
Planning Overlay
RFS Bush Fire Prone Land Map
Bushfire Prone Area
Yes

The Pilliga State Forest presents a significant bushfire hazard to Baradine.

Heat Evidence

Avg January Max Temp
34.5°C
Heat Stress Days/Year
5 days

Heatwaves are becoming more frequent and intense, posing a risk to vulnerable residents.

Coastal Evidence

Distance to Coast
500 km
Sea Level Rise Exposure
Not applicable
Erosion Risk
Not applicable

Historical Climate Events

2019
bushfireModerate

Bushfires impacted the region surrounding Baradine, causing property damage and evacuations.

Source
2016
floodModerate

Heavy rainfall caused flooding in Baradine, affecting homes and businesses.

Source
2013
heatwaveModerate

A prolonged heatwave affected Baradine, with temperatures exceeding 40 degrees Celsius for several days.

Source
2010
floodMinor

Localized flooding occurred in Baradine due to heavy rainfall.

Source

Climate Outlook to 2050

Projections based on CSIRO and BOM climate modelling. Scenario: RCP8.5

HazardToday20302050
flood454.7(+0.2)5.0(+0.5)
bushfire687.2(+0.4)7.7(+0.9)
heat424.3(+0.1)4.5(+0.3)
coastal101.01.0

By 2030, Baradine is projected to experience a slight increase in overall climate risk, primarily driven by more frequent and intense bushfires and flooding events. Heatwaves are also expected to become more common.

CSIRO Climate Projections

Adaptation Recommendations

Improve Bushfire Preparedness

Immediate

Develop and implement a community bushfire management plan, including hazard reduction burns, firebreaks, and evacuation procedures.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Upgrade Drainage Infrastructure

Near-term

Invest in upgrading drainage infrastructure to handle more intense rainfall events and reduce the risk of flooding.

Est. cost: High

Learn more

Implement Heatwave Action Plan

Near-term

Develop and implement a heatwave action plan to protect vulnerable populations during extreme heat events, including establishing cooling centers and providing public awareness campaigns.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

Promote Water Conservation

Long-term

Encourage water conservation through education programs and incentives to reduce water demand during droughts and heatwaves.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

About Baradine's Climate Risk Profile

Baradine, located in the Warrumbungle Shire of New South Wales, is exposed to a range of climate-related risks. The most significant threats are bushfires, driven by the region's dry climate and extensive bushland, and flooding from local rainfall and river systems.

Bushfire risk is projected to increase due to rising temperatures and drier conditions, leading to a longer fire season and more intense fires. Flooding risk is also expected to rise with more intense rainfall events. Heatwaves are becoming more frequent and severe, posing a health risk to vulnerable populations.

While coastal risks are minimal due to Baradine's inland location, the community should focus on mitigating bushfire and flood risks through improved land management, building codes, and emergency preparedness. Adapting to increasing heat will also be crucial for protecting public health.

Understanding these risks and taking proactive measures will be essential for ensuring the long-term resilience and sustainability of Baradine.

Data sources: BOM · CSIRO · NSW RFS · NSW SES · Warrumbungle Shire Council

Local Government Resources

Warrumbungle Shire Council

Climate StrategyFlood MapsEmergency Services

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the main climate risks facing Baradine?

Baradine's primary climate risks are bushfires, flooding, and heatwaves. These risks are expected to increase in the future due to climate change.

How can I prepare my property for bushfires?

You can prepare your property by clearing vegetation around your home, installing firebreaks, and having a bushfire survival plan.

What should I do during a flood?

During a flood, you should move to higher ground, avoid driving through floodwaters, and follow the instructions of emergency services.

How can I stay safe during a heatwave?

During a heatwave, you should stay hydrated, avoid strenuous activity, and seek shelter in air-conditioned environments.

Where can I find more information about climate change in Baradine?

You can find more information about climate change in Baradine on the Warrumbungle Shire Council website, the NSW Government website, and the CSIRO website.

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