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Climate Risk Profile for Bardia, NSW

Bardia, New South Wales· Liverpool· 2565
Medium Risk
Updated May 2026

Bardia faces moderate risks from flooding and heatwaves, with bushfire risk also present. Climate change is expected to exacerbate these risks, particularly increasing the intensity of floods and the frequency of heatwaves. Residents should prepare for these potential impacts.

Overall Risk Score

52/100
Medium

Confidence: Medium

Hazard Breakdown

Flood
6.5
Bushfire
4.0
Heat
6.0
Coastal
1.0

Climate Hazard Breakdown for Bardia

increasing

Flood

65/100

Bardia faces a moderate risk of flooding due to its proximity to waterways and low-lying areas. Climate change is expected to increase rainfall intensity, exacerbating flood risk.

Key drivers:

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Urban development
increasing

Bushfire

40/100

Bardia has a moderate bushfire risk due to surrounding bushland. Hotter, drier conditions are projected to increase the frequency and intensity of bushfires.

Key drivers:

  • ·Increased temperatures
  • ·Drier vegetation
increasing

Heat

60/100

Bardia is likely to experience more frequent and intense heatwaves. This poses a risk to vulnerable populations, especially during summer.

Key drivers:

  • ·Rising average temperatures
  • ·Urban heat island effect
stable

Coastal

10/100

Bardia is not directly exposed to coastal hazards. Sea level rise and coastal erosion are not significant concerns for this suburb.

Key drivers:

  • ·Distance from the coast
stable

Wind

28/100

Moderate wind risk — East Coast Lows and gust fronts

stable

Storm

39/100

Moderate storm risk — severe thunderstorms and hail

stable

Social

21/100

Moderate social stability — mixed urban density

increasing

Energy

35/100

Moderate energy costs — climate-driven cooling demand

In-Depth Climate Risk Guides for Bardia

Should I Buy

Property buying guide with climate risk assessment

Flood Risk

Flood zone mapping, historical events, and projections

Bushfire Risk

BAL assessment, vegetation proximity, and fire history

Climate Safety

Multi-hazard safety assessment to 2050

Storm Risk

Severe weather, hail, and wind risk analysis

Heat Risk

Extreme heat days, urban heat island, and cooling costs

Insurance Costs

Premium estimates and insurance availability

Investment Score

Climate-adjusted property investment analysis

Detailed Hazard Analysis

heat Risk

60/100

Bardia is likely to experience more frequent and intense heatwaves. This poses a risk to vulnerable populations, especially during summer.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Rising average temperatures
  • ·Urban heat island effect
  • ·Reduced vegetation cover

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

6.5

2050

7.0

Data source

flood Risk

65/100

Bardia faces a moderate risk of flooding due to its proximity to waterways and low-lying areas. Climate change is expected to increase rainfall intensity, exacerbating flood risk.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Urban development
  • ·Inadequate drainage infrastructure

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

7.0

2050

7.5

Data source

coastal Risk

10/100

Bardia is not directly exposed to coastal hazards. Sea level rise and coastal erosion are not significant concerns for this suburb.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Distance from the coast

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

1.0

2050

1.0

Data source

bushfire Risk

40/100

Bardia has a moderate bushfire risk due to surrounding bushland. Hotter, drier conditions are projected to increase the frequency and intensity of bushfires.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased temperatures
  • ·Drier vegetation
  • ·Stronger winds

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

4.5

2050

5.0

Data source

What This Means for Property Owners

Insurance Outlook

Insurance premiums may increase due to flood and bushfire risks.

Price Impact

Properties in flood-prone areas may experience a decrease in value.

Buyer Checklist

  • 1.Check flood maps and potential flood risk for the property.
  • 2.Assess bushfire risk and ensure adequate fire protection measures.
  • 3.Consider the property's vulnerability to heatwaves and ensure adequate cooling.
  • 4.Review insurance options and potential premium increases.

Local Climate Evidence

Flood Evidence

Nearest Waterway
Georges River
Elevation Range
20-40m
Flood Zone
Partially within a 1% AEP flood zone

Some properties in Bardia are located in areas susceptible to flash flooding during heavy rainfall events.

View council flood map

Bushfire Evidence

Distance to Bushland
Adjacent to bushland reserves
Planning Overlay
NSW RFS Bush Fire Prone Land Map
Bushfire Prone Area
Yes

Properties bordering bushland are at higher risk and require appropriate fire protection measures.

Heat Evidence

Avg January Max Temp
31.5°C
Heat Stress Days/Year
5 days

The urban environment in Bardia contributes to the urban heat island effect, increasing temperatures during heatwaves.

Coastal Evidence

Distance to Coast
30 km
Sea Level Rise Exposure
Not applicable
Erosion Risk
Not applicable

Historical Climate Events

2011
floodModerate

Major flooding in the Liverpool area affected parts of Bardia, causing property damage and road closures.

Source
2013
heatwaveModerate

Prolonged heatwave conditions across NSW, including Bardia, led to increased hospital admissions and strain on infrastructure.

Source
2019
bushfireModerate

Bushfires in the region caused smoke haze and increased fire danger in Bardia.

Source
2020
floodMinor

Localized flooding occurred in parts of Bardia due to heavy rainfall.

Source

Climate Outlook to 2050

Projections based on CSIRO and BOM climate modelling. Scenario: RCP8.5

HazardToday20302050
flood657.0(+0.5)7.5(+1.0)
bushfire404.3(+0.3)4.5(+0.5)
heat606.7(+0.7)7.2(+1.2)
coastal101.01.0

By 2030, Bardia is projected to experience a moderate increase in overall climate risk, primarily driven by increased flood risk and more frequent heatwaves. Bushfire risk is also expected to rise slightly.

CSIRO Climate Projections

Adaptation Recommendations

Improve Drainage Infrastructure

Near-term

Upgrade and maintain drainage systems to reduce flood risk during heavy rainfall events.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Implement Heatwave Management Plan

Immediate

Develop and implement a heatwave management plan to protect vulnerable populations during extreme heat events.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

Bushfire Preparedness Education

Near-term

Provide education and resources to residents on bushfire preparedness and safety measures.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

Promote Water Conservation

Long-term

Encourage water conservation practices to reduce strain on water resources during droughts and heatwaves.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

Green Infrastructure Development

Long-term

Increase green spaces and tree cover to mitigate the urban heat island effect and improve stormwater management.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

About Bardia's Climate Risk Profile

Bardia, located in the Liverpool region of New South Wales, is subject to several climate-related risks. The primary concerns are flooding, heatwaves, and bushfires. Due to its location near waterways, Bardia is susceptible to flooding, which is projected to worsen with increased rainfall intensity due to climate change.

Heatwaves are another significant concern for Bardia. Rising average temperatures and the urban heat island effect are expected to lead to more frequent and intense heatwaves, posing health risks to vulnerable populations. Residents should take precautions during these events to stay safe and healthy.

Bushfire risk is also present due to the surrounding bushland. Hotter, drier conditions are projected to increase the frequency and intensity of bushfires, requiring residents to be prepared and aware of fire safety measures.

While coastal hazards are not a direct threat to Bardia, the broader impacts of climate change, such as extreme weather events, can still affect the suburb. It is essential for residents and local authorities to take proactive measures to mitigate these risks and adapt to the changing climate.

Data sources: BOM · CSIRO · NSW RFS · Liverpool City Council

Local Government Resources

Liverpool City Council

Climate StrategyFlood MapsEmergency Services

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the main climate risks in Bardia?

The main climate risks in Bardia are flooding, heatwaves, and bushfires. These risks are expected to increase with climate change.

How can I prepare for flooding in Bardia?

You can prepare for flooding by checking flood maps, ensuring your property has adequate drainage, and having an emergency plan in place.

What should I do during a heatwave in Bardia?

During a heatwave, stay indoors in air-conditioned environments, drink plenty of water, and avoid strenuous activities. Check on vulnerable neighbors and family members.

How can I protect my property from bushfires in Bardia?

Protect your property from bushfires by clearing vegetation around your home, having a bushfire survival plan, and ensuring you have adequate insurance coverage.

What is the local council doing to address climate change in Bardia?

Liverpool City Council is implementing various strategies to address climate change, including improving drainage infrastructure, promoting water conservation, and developing a heatwave management plan.

Where can I find more information about emergency services in Bardia?

You can find more information about emergency services on the NSW State Emergency Service (SES) website.

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