Climate Risk Profile: Berrilee, NSW

Berrilee, New South Wales· Hornsby· 2159
Medium Risk
Updated May 2026

Berrilee is a suburb in New South Wales that faces moderate climate risks, primarily from bushfires and flooding. The risk is projected to increase in the future due to climate change. Residents should take steps to prepare for these hazards.

Overall Risk Score

58/100
Medium

Confidence: Medium

Hazard Breakdown

Flood
6.5
Bushfire
7.0
Heat
4.5
Coastal
1.0

Climate Hazard Breakdown for Berrilee

increasing

Flood

65/100

Berrilee faces a moderate risk of flooding due to its proximity to waterways and undulating terrain. Intense rainfall events can lead to flash flooding, particularly in low-lying areas.

Key drivers:

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Urban development
increasing

Bushfire

70/100

Berrilee has a high bushfire risk due to its location surrounded by dense bushland. Dry conditions and strong winds can exacerbate the risk during the bushfire season.

Key drivers:

  • ·Dry vegetation
  • ·High temperatures
increasing

Heat

45/100

Berrilee experiences moderate heat risk, with increasing average temperatures and more frequent heatwave events projected in the future.

Key drivers:

  • ·Climate change
  • ·Urban heat island effect
stable

Coastal

10/100

Berrilee has a very low coastal risk due to its distance from the coastline. Sea level rise and coastal erosion are not significant threats to this suburb.

Key drivers:

  • ·Distance from coast
stable

Wind

28/100

Moderate wind risk — East Coast Lows and gust fronts

stable

Storm

39/100

Moderate storm risk — severe thunderstorms and hail

stable

Social

21/100

Moderate social stability — mixed urban density

increasing

Energy

35/100

Moderate energy costs — climate-driven cooling demand

In-Depth Climate Risk Guides for Berrilee

Detailed Hazard Analysis

heat Risk

45/100

Berrilee experiences moderate heat risk, with increasing average temperatures and more frequent heatwave events projected in the future.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Climate change
  • ·Urban heat island effect

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

5.0

2050

5.5

Data source

flood Risk

65/100

Berrilee faces a moderate risk of flooding due to its proximity to waterways and undulating terrain. Intense rainfall events can lead to flash flooding, particularly in low-lying areas.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Urban development
  • ·Climate change

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

7.0

2050

7.5

Data source

coastal Risk

10/100

Berrilee has a very low coastal risk due to its distance from the coastline. Sea level rise and coastal erosion are not significant threats to this suburb.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Distance from coast

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

1.0

2050

1.0

Data source

bushfire Risk

70/100

Berrilee has a high bushfire risk due to its location surrounded by dense bushland. Dry conditions and strong winds can exacerbate the risk during the bushfire season.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Dry vegetation
  • ·High temperatures
  • ·Strong winds
  • ·Climate change

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

7.5

2050

8.0

Data source

What This Means for Property Owners

Insurance Outlook

Insurance premiums may increase due to the elevated bushfire and flood risks.

Price Impact

Properties in high-risk areas may experience a decrease in value.

Buyer Checklist

  • 1.Check bushfire and flood risk maps.
  • 2.Obtain a building inspection report.
  • 3.Review insurance options and premiums.
  • 4.Assess the property's vulnerability to heatwaves.

Local Climate Evidence

Flood Evidence

Nearest Waterway
Berowra Creek
Elevation Range
80-220m
Flood Zone
Areas near Berowra Creek are susceptible to flooding.

Hornsby Shire Council has conducted flood studies for the Berowra Creek catchment.

View council flood map

Bushfire Evidence

Distance to Bushland
Surrounded by bushland
Planning Overlay
Bushfire Prone Land
Bushfire Prone Area
Yes

Berrilee is designated as a bushfire-prone area by the NSW Rural Fire Service.

Heat Evidence

Avg January Max Temp
30.5°C
Heat Stress Days/Year
3 days

Heatwaves are becoming more frequent and intense in the Sydney region.

Coastal Evidence

Distance to Coast
25 km
Sea Level Rise Exposure
Not applicable
Erosion Risk
Not applicable

Historical Climate Events

2020
bushfireModerate

Bushfires impacted the region surrounding Berrilee, leading to evacuations and property damage.

Source
2022
floodModerate

Heavy rainfall caused flooding in low-lying areas of Hornsby Shire, including near Berrilee.

Source
2019
heatwaveModerate

A prolonged heatwave affected Sydney, with temperatures exceeding 40 degrees Celsius in some areas.

Source
2016
stormMinor

Severe storms caused power outages and minor damage in the Berrilee area.

Source

Climate Outlook to 2050

Projections based on CSIRO and BOM climate modelling. Scenario: RCP8.5

HazardToday20302050
flood656.8(+0.3)7.1(+0.6)
bushfire707.4(+0.4)7.8(+0.8)
heat454.7(+0.2)5.0(+0.5)
coastal101.01.0

By 2030, Berrilee is projected to experience an increase in bushfire and flood risk due to climate change. Heatwaves will also become more frequent and intense.

CSIRO Climate Projections

Adaptation Recommendations

Develop a Bushfire Survival Plan

Immediate

Create a detailed plan for evacuating your property in the event of a bushfire, including designated meeting points and emergency contacts.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

Improve Home's Bushfire Resilience

Near-term

Install ember guards on windows and doors, clear vegetation around your home, and ensure your roof is well-maintained.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Prepare for Flooding

Near-term

Elevate valuable items, clear gutters and downpipes, and consider installing flood barriers if your property is prone to flooding.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Conserve Water

Long-term

Install water-efficient appliances, fix leaks promptly, and practice water-wise gardening to reduce water consumption during droughts.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

Install Solar Panels

Long-term

Reduce your carbon footprint and energy costs by installing solar panels on your roof.

Est. cost: High

Learn more

About Berrilee's Climate Risk Profile

Berrilee, NSW, is a suburb that experiences a range of climate-related risks. The most significant threats are bushfires, due to the surrounding bushland, and flooding, due to its proximity to waterways and varying topography. Heatwaves are also a concern, with increasing average temperatures projected in the future.

The bushfire risk in Berrilee is high, with the potential for significant property damage and loss of life during severe bushfire events. Residents should maintain their properties, clear vegetation, and have a bushfire survival plan in place. The local fire brigade provides resources and advice on bushfire preparedness.

Flooding is another significant risk in Berrilee, particularly in low-lying areas. Intense rainfall events can cause flash flooding, inundating properties and disrupting transportation. Residents should be aware of flood warnings and have a plan in place to evacuate if necessary. Hornsby Shire Council provides information on flood risks and mitigation measures.

Heatwaves are becoming more frequent and intense in Berrilee, posing a health risk to vulnerable populations, such as the elderly and those with chronic health conditions. Residents should stay hydrated, avoid strenuous activity during the hottest part of the day, and seek air-conditioned environments when possible.

While coastal risks are minimal due to Berrilee's inland location, the suburb is still indirectly affected by climate change through its impact on the broader region. Changes in rainfall patterns, temperature, and sea level can have cascading effects on the economy, environment, and community.

Data sources: BOM · CSIRO · NSW Rural Fire Service · NSW State Emergency Service · Hornsby Shire Council

Local Government Resources

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the main climate risks in Berrilee?

The main climate risks in Berrilee are bushfires, flooding, and heatwaves. The suburb is surrounded by bushland, making it vulnerable to bushfires. It is also located near waterways, increasing the risk of flooding. Heatwaves are becoming more frequent and intense due to climate change.

How can I prepare my home for a bushfire in Berrilee?

You can prepare your home for a bushfire by clearing vegetation around your property, installing ember guards on windows and doors, and ensuring your roof is well-maintained. It is also important to have a bushfire survival plan in place.

What should I do during a flood in Berrilee?

During a flood, you should evacuate to higher ground if necessary. Avoid driving or walking through floodwaters. Stay informed about flood warnings and follow the advice of emergency services.

How can I stay safe during a heatwave in Berrilee?

During a heatwave, you should stay hydrated, avoid strenuous activity during the hottest part of the day, and seek air-conditioned environments when possible. Check on vulnerable neighbors and family members.

Where can I find more information about climate change in Hornsby Shire?

You can find more information about climate change in Hornsby Shire on the Hornsby Shire Council website. The council has a climate change strategy and provides resources on how to reduce your carbon footprint.

Is Berrilee a good place to live considering climate change?

Berrilee presents both opportunities and challenges in the face of climate change. While the area offers a desirable lifestyle with access to nature, prospective residents should be aware of the increasing risks of bushfires and flooding and take appropriate preparedness measures. Long-term planning and community resilience will be key to maintaining Berrilee's liveability.

Get your property's risk report

This suburb assessment covers the area. For a precise address-level climate risk report for any specific property in Berrilee, use our analysis tool.

Check Your flood Risk Now

Check Berrilee's specific flood risk and see how it compares to nearby suburbs. Enter your address for an instant risk assessment.

Free instant previewCSIRO-powered data

What A$69 could save you from

$7.2B
2022 insured disaster losses*
$300B+
climate risk to property by 2050*
30-120%
insurance premium increases in high-risk areas*

*Industry sources: ICA, APRA, RBA

Full report from A$69 · Australian addresses only · 8 hazard scores · Insurance trajectory · 2030 & 2050 projections