Climate Risk Profile: Bexley, NSW

Bexley, New South Wales· Bayside· 2207
Medium Risk
Updated May 2026

Bexley faces moderate climate risks, primarily from flooding and heatwaves. The suburb's urban environment increases its vulnerability to heat, while its proximity to waterways elevates flood risk. Residents should prepare for more frequent and intense extreme weather events.

Overall Risk Score

55/100
Medium

Confidence: Medium

Hazard Breakdown

Flood
6.0
Bushfire
3.0
Heat
7.0
Coastal
2.0

Climate Hazard Breakdown for Bexley

increasing

Flood

60/100

Bexley faces a moderate risk of flooding due to its proximity to waterways and low-lying areas. Intense rainfall events can lead to stormwater runoff exceeding drainage capacity.

Key drivers:

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Urban development
stable

Bushfire

30/100

Bushfire risk in Bexley is relatively low due to its urban environment and distance from large bushland areas. However, ember attack from distant fires remains a potential concern.

Key drivers:

  • ·Proximity to green spaces
  • ·Wind patterns
increasing

Heat

70/100

Bexley experiences a high risk of heatwaves, particularly during the summer months. Urban heat island effect exacerbates the impact of high temperatures on vulnerable populations.

Key drivers:

  • ·Rising average temperatures
  • ·Urban heat island effect
increasing

Coastal

20/100

Coastal risk in Bexley is low due to its distance from the immediate coastline. Sea level rise and storm surges pose minimal direct threat.

Key drivers:

  • ·Sea level rise
  • ·Storm surge intensity
stable

Wind

28/100

Moderate wind risk — East Coast Lows and gust fronts

stable

Storm

39/100

Moderate storm risk — severe thunderstorms and hail

stable

Social

21/100

Moderate social stability — mixed urban density

increasing

Energy

35/100

Moderate energy costs — climate-driven cooling demand

In-Depth Climate Risk Guides for Bexley

Detailed Hazard Analysis

heat Risk

70/100

Bexley experiences a high risk of heatwaves, particularly during the summer months. Urban heat island effect exacerbates the impact of high temperatures on vulnerable populations.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Rising average temperatures
  • ·Urban heat island effect
  • ·Increased frequency of heatwaves

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

7.5

2050

8.0

Data source

flood Risk

60/100

Bexley faces a moderate risk of flooding due to its proximity to waterways and low-lying areas. Intense rainfall events can lead to stormwater runoff exceeding drainage capacity.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Urban development
  • ·Aging drainage infrastructure

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

6.5

2050

7.0

Data source

coastal Risk

20/100

Coastal risk in Bexley is low due to its distance from the immediate coastline. Sea level rise and storm surges pose minimal direct threat.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Sea level rise
  • ·Storm surge intensity

Projections (RCP4.5)

2030

2.2

2050

2.5

Data source

bushfire Risk

30/100

Bushfire risk in Bexley is relatively low due to its urban environment and distance from large bushland areas. However, ember attack from distant fires remains a potential concern.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Proximity to green spaces
  • ·Wind patterns
  • ·Fuel load in surrounding areas

Projections (RCP4.5)

2030

3.2

2050

3.5

Data source

What This Means for Property Owners

Insurance Outlook

Insurance premiums may increase due to flood risk.

Price Impact

Properties in flood-prone areas may experience price stagnation.

Buyer Checklist

  • 1.Check flood maps and historical flood data.
  • 2.Assess the property's vulnerability to heatwaves.
  • 3.Inquire about council plans for climate adaptation.
  • 4.Review insurance options and potential premium increases.

Local Climate Evidence

Flood Evidence

Nearest Waterway
Cooks River
Elevation Range
5-15 meters
Flood Zone
Partially within a 100-year flood zone

Historical flood events have impacted properties along the Cooks River.

View council flood map

Bushfire Evidence

Distance to Bushland
2 km to Wolli Creek Regional Park
Planning Overlay
Not within a designated bushfire prone area
Bushfire Prone Area
No

Ember attack is the primary bushfire concern.

Heat Evidence

Avg January Max Temp
29.5°C
Heat Stress Days/Year
4 days

Urban heat island effect is noticeable in Bexley's commercial areas.

Coastal Evidence

Distance to Coast
5 km
Sea Level Rise Exposure
Low
Erosion Risk
Negligible

Historical Climate Events

1990
floodModerate

Major flooding along the Cooks River affected Bexley, causing property damage and road closures.

Source
2002
stormModerate

Severe storm caused flash flooding and power outages in Bexley.

Source
2011
floodMinor

Minor flooding occurred along the Cooks River after heavy rainfall.

Source
2013
heatwaveModerate

Prolonged heatwave conditions led to increased hospital admissions for heat-related illnesses.

Source

Climate Outlook to 2050

Projections based on CSIRO and BOM climate modelling. Scenario: RCP8.5

HazardToday20302050
flood606.5(+0.5)7.0(+1.0)
bushfire303.2(+0.2)3.5(+0.5)
heat707.8(+0.8)8.5(+1.5)
coastal202.1(+0.1)2.3(+0.3)

By 2030, Bexley is projected to experience a notable increase in heatwave frequency and intensity, along with a moderate increase in flood risk due to more intense rainfall events. Bushfire risk will slightly increase. Coastal risks remain low.

CSIRO Climate Projections

Adaptation Recommendations

Upgrade Drainage Infrastructure

Immediate

Invest in upgrading and expanding stormwater drainage systems to handle increased rainfall intensity and reduce flood risk.

Est. cost: High

Learn more

Implement Heat Mitigation Strategies

Near-term

Plant more trees and create green spaces to reduce the urban heat island effect. Promote cool roofs and other heat-reducing building materials.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Develop Community Emergency Plans

Immediate

Create and disseminate emergency plans for heatwaves and floods, including evacuation routes and shelter locations.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

Raise Community Awareness

Near-term

Educate residents about climate risks and adaptation measures through workshops, online resources, and community events.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

Strengthen Building Codes

Long-term

Update building codes to require climate-resilient design and construction, including flood-proofing and heat-resistant materials.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

About Bexley's Climate Risk Profile

Bexley, located in the Bayside area of Sydney, is susceptible to several climate-related risks. The most significant threat comes from flooding, as the suburb contains low-lying areas and is near several waterways. Increased rainfall intensity due to climate change is expected to exacerbate this risk, potentially overwhelming existing drainage infrastructure.

Heatwaves also pose a considerable risk to Bexley residents. The urban heat island effect, caused by the concentration of buildings and paved surfaces, traps heat and raises temperatures, particularly during summer. This can lead to heat stress and other health problems, especially for vulnerable populations such as the elderly and those with chronic illnesses.

While bushfire risk is relatively low due to the suburb's urban nature, ember attack from distant fires remains a concern. Coastal risks are minimal due to Bexley's distance from the immediate coastline, but sea level rise could indirectly affect the area through changes in drainage patterns.

Addressing these climate risks requires a multi-faceted approach, including upgrading drainage infrastructure, implementing heat mitigation strategies, and raising community awareness about emergency preparedness. Long-term planning should also consider the potential impacts of climate change on property values and insurance costs.

Data sources: BOM · CSIRO · NSW State Emergency Service · Bayside Council

Local Government Resources

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the main climate change risks in Bexley?

The main climate change risks in Bexley are flooding due to increased rainfall intensity and heatwaves exacerbated by the urban heat island effect. Bushfire risk is relatively low, but ember attack remains a concern.

How will climate change affect property values in Bexley?

Properties in flood-prone areas may experience price stagnation or decline. Increased insurance premiums due to climate risks could also affect property values.

What is the council doing to address climate change in Bexley?

Bayside Council is implementing various initiatives to address climate change, including upgrading drainage infrastructure, planting trees to reduce the urban heat island effect, and developing community emergency plans.

How can I prepare my home for heatwaves in Bexley?

You can prepare your home for heatwaves by installing insulation, using light-colored roofing materials, planting trees for shade, and ensuring you have access to air conditioning or cooling centers.

Where can I find information about flood risks in Bexley?

You can find information about flood risks in Bexley on the Bayside Council website, including flood maps and historical flood data. The NSW State Emergency Service also provides valuable resources.

Is Bexley in a bushfire prone area?

While Bexley itself is not designated as a bushfire prone area, it is located near bushland, so residents should be aware of the risk of ember attack during bushfire season.

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What A$69 could save you from

$7.2B
2022 insured disaster losses*
$300B+
climate risk to property by 2050*
30-120%
insurance premium increases in high-risk areas*

*Industry sources: ICA, APRA, RBA

Full report from A$69 · Australian addresses only · 8 hazard scores · Insurance trajectory · 2030 & 2050 projections