Climate Risk Assessment: Boggabilla, NSW

Boggabilla, New South Wales· Moree Plains Shire Council· 2409

High Risk

Updated May 2026

Boggabilla faces significant flood and heat risks, which are expected to worsen with climate change. The town is located on the Macintyre River floodplain and experiences hot summers. Residents should prepare for more frequent and intense extreme weather events.

Overall Risk Score

72/100

High

Confidence: Medium

Hazard Breakdown

Flood

8.5

Bushfire

6.0

Heat

7.0

Coastal

1.0

Climate Hazard Breakdown for Boggabilla

increasing

Flood

85/100

Boggabilla is located on the Macintyre River floodplain, making it highly susceptible to flooding. Climate change is expected to increase the frequency and intensity of heavy rainfall events, exacerbating flood risk.

Key drivers:

·Increased rainfall intensity
·Riverine flooding

increasing

Bushfire

60/100

Boggabilla is surrounded by grasslands and agricultural land, which can become dry and flammable during the summer months. Bushfire risk is moderate but can increase during prolonged droughts and heatwaves.

Key drivers:

·Dry vegetation
·High temperatures

increasing

Heat

70/100

Boggabilla experiences hot summers with temperatures frequently exceeding 35°C. Climate change is projected to increase the frequency and intensity of heatwaves, posing a risk to vulnerable populations.

Key drivers:

·Rising average temperatures
·Increased frequency of heatwaves

stable

Coastal

10/100

Boggabilla is located far inland and is not exposed to coastal hazards.

stable

Wind

40/100

Moderate wind risk — East Coast Lows and gust fronts

stable

Storm

55/100

Moderate storm risk — severe thunderstorms and hail

stable

Social

30/100

Moderate social stability — mixed urban density

increasing

Energy

50/100

Moderate energy costs — climate-driven cooling demand

In-Depth Climate Risk Guides for Boggabilla

Property buying guide with climate risk assessment

Flood zone mapping, historical events, and projections

BAL assessment, vegetation proximity, and fire history

Multi-hazard safety assessment to 2050

Severe weather, hail, and wind risk analysis

Extreme heat days, urban heat island, and cooling costs

Insurance Costs

Premium estimates and insurance availability

Investment Score

Climate-adjusted property investment analysis

Detailed Hazard Analysis

heat Risk

70/100

Boggabilla experiences hot summers with temperatures frequently exceeding 35°C. Climate change is projected to increase the frequency and intensity of heatwaves, posing a risk to vulnerable populations.

Primary Drivers

·Rising average temperatures
·Increased frequency of heatwaves
·Climate change

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

7.4

2050

7.8

flood Risk

85/100

Boggabilla is located on the Macintyre River floodplain, making it highly susceptible to flooding. Climate change is expected to increase the frequency and intensity of heavy rainfall events, exacerbating flood risk.

Primary Drivers

·Increased rainfall intensity
·Riverine flooding
·Climate change

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

8.8

2050

9.2

coastal Risk

10/100

Boggabilla is located far inland and is not exposed to coastal hazards.

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

1.0

2050

1.0

bushfire Risk

60/100

Boggabilla is surrounded by grasslands and agricultural land, which can become dry and flammable during the summer months. Bushfire risk is moderate but can increase during prolonged droughts and heatwaves.

Primary Drivers

·Dry vegetation
·High temperatures
·Strong winds

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

6.3

2050

6.7

What This Means for Property Owners

Insurance Outlook

Insurance premiums may be higher due to flood risk.

Price Impact

Properties in flood-prone areas may experience price fluctuations.

Buyer Checklist

1.Check flood history of the property.
2.Assess bushfire risk and implement mitigation measures.
3.Ensure adequate insurance coverage.
4.Consider the impact of heatwaves on property value.

Local Climate Evidence

Flood Evidence

Nearest Waterway: Macintyre River
Elevation Range: Approximately 160-170m above sea level
Flood Zone: Yes, Boggabilla is located within a designated flood zone.

Bushfire Evidence

Distance to Bushland: Within 1km of grassland and agricultural areas.
Planning Overlay: Check with NSW RFS for current bushfire prone area mapping.
Bushfire Prone Area: Yes

Heat Evidence

Avg January Max Temp: 34.5°C
Heat Stress Days/Year: 3 days

Coastal Evidence

Distance to Coast: 600 km
Sea Level Rise Exposure: Not applicable
Erosion Risk: Not applicable

Historical Climate Events

2011

floodMajor

Major flooding of the Macintyre River caused widespread inundation in Boggabilla, impacting homes and businesses.

2012

floodModerate

Moderate flooding along the Macintyre River affected low-lying areas of Boggabilla.

2019

droughtMajor

Severe drought conditions impacted the region, affecting agricultural production and water supplies.

2023

floodModerate

Renewed flooding along the Macintyre River caused disruption to the community.

Climate Outlook to 2050

Projections based on CSIRO and BOM climate modelling. Scenario: RCP8.5

Hazard	Today	2030	2050
flood	85	8.8(+0.3)	9.1(+0.6)
bushfire	60	6.1(+0.1)	6.3(+0.3)
heat	70	7.2(+0.2)	7.5(+0.5)
coastal	10	1.0	1.0

By 2030, Boggabilla is projected to experience a slight increase in overall climate risk, primarily driven by increased flood risk and more frequent heatwaves.

CSIRO Climate Projections

Adaptation Recommendations

Improve Flood Defenses

Near-term

Invest in levees and drainage systems to protect properties from flooding.

Est. cost: High

Develop a Heat Action Plan

Immediate

Implement a plan to protect vulnerable residents during heatwaves, including cooling centers and public awareness campaigns.

Est. cost: Medium

Bushfire Risk Reduction

Near-term

Undertake vegetation management and controlled burns to reduce bushfire fuel loads.

Est. cost: Medium

Community Education Programs

Long-term

Provide education and training to residents on how to prepare for and respond to climate-related hazards.

Est. cost: Low

About Boggabilla's Climate Risk Profile

Boggabilla is a small town in northern New South Wales, situated on the Macintyre River. The town's location on the floodplain makes it particularly vulnerable to flooding, which has historically caused significant damage to property and infrastructure.

Climate change is projected to increase the frequency and intensity of heavy rainfall events in the region, further exacerbating flood risk. The town also experiences hot summers, and heatwaves are expected to become more frequent and intense with climate change, posing a risk to vulnerable populations such as the elderly and those with chronic health conditions.

While bushfire risk is moderate, the surrounding grasslands and agricultural land can become dry and flammable during the summer months. Prolonged droughts and heatwaves can increase the risk of bushfires in the area.

Residents of Boggabilla should take steps to prepare for these climate-related hazards, including developing emergency plans, maintaining adequate insurance coverage, and staying informed about weather forecasts and warnings. Local authorities are working to improve flood mitigation infrastructure and implement strategies to reduce the impacts of heatwaves and bushfires.

Data sources: BOM · CSIRO · NSW SES · NSW RFS · Moree Plains Shire Council

Local Government Resources

Moree Plains Shire Council

Climate Strategy Flood Maps Emergency Services

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the main climate change risks in Boggabilla?

The main climate change risks in Boggabilla are increased flooding, more frequent and intense heatwaves, and a moderate risk of bushfires.

How can I prepare my home for flooding in Boggabilla?

You can prepare your home for flooding by raising electrical outlets, storing valuables above flood level, and having an emergency plan in place.

What should I do during a heatwave in Boggabilla?

During a heatwave, stay indoors in air-conditioned environments, drink plenty of water, and avoid strenuous activity. Check on vulnerable neighbors and family members.

Where can I find information about bushfire risks in Boggabilla?

You can find information about bushfire risks on the NSW Rural Fire Service website and by contacting your local fire brigade.

Is Boggabilla likely to become uninhabitable due to climate change?

While climate change poses significant challenges to Boggabilla, with proactive adaptation measures, the town can remain a viable community. However, the severity of future impacts will depend on global efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

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