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Climate Risk in Borenore, New South Wales

Borenore, New South Wales· 2800
Medium Risk
Updated May 2026

Borenore faces moderate risks from flooding, bushfires, and heatwaves, which are projected to worsen with climate change. Residents should prepare for more frequent extreme weather events.

Overall Risk Score

55/100
Medium

Confidence: Medium

Hazard Breakdown

Flood
6.0
Bushfire
4.0
Heat
7.0
Coastal
1.0

Climate Hazard Breakdown for Borenore

increasing

Flood

60/100

Borenore faces a moderate risk of flooding due to its proximity to waterways and low-lying areas. Climate change is expected to increase rainfall intensity, potentially worsening flood events.

Key drivers:

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Urban development
increasing

Bushfire

40/100

Borenore has a moderate bushfire risk due to surrounding vegetation. Hotter, drier conditions are projected to increase the frequency and intensity of bushfires.

Key drivers:

  • ·Increased temperatures
  • ·Drier conditions
increasing

Heat

70/100

Borenore is likely to experience more frequent and intense heatwaves. This poses a risk to vulnerable populations and infrastructure.

Key drivers:

  • ·Rising average temperatures
  • ·Increased frequency of heatwaves
stable

Coastal

10/100

Borenore is not directly exposed to coastal risks.

stable

Wind

28/100

Moderate wind risk — East Coast Lows and gust fronts

stable

Storm

39/100

Moderate storm risk — severe thunderstorms and hail

stable

Social

21/100

Moderate social stability — mixed urban density

increasing

Energy

35/100

Moderate energy costs — climate-driven cooling demand

In-Depth Climate Risk Guides for Borenore

Should I Buy

Property buying guide with climate risk assessment

Flood Risk

Flood zone mapping, historical events, and projections

Bushfire Risk

BAL assessment, vegetation proximity, and fire history

Climate Safety

Multi-hazard safety assessment to 2050

Storm Risk

Severe weather, hail, and wind risk analysis

Heat Risk

Extreme heat days, urban heat island, and cooling costs

Insurance Costs

Premium estimates and insurance availability

Investment Score

Climate-adjusted property investment analysis

Detailed Hazard Analysis

heat Risk

70/100

Borenore is likely to experience more frequent and intense heatwaves. This poses a risk to vulnerable populations and infrastructure.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Rising average temperatures
  • ·Increased frequency of heatwaves
  • ·Urban heat island effect

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

7.5

2050

8.0

Data source

flood Risk

60/100

Borenore faces a moderate risk of flooding due to its proximity to waterways and low-lying areas. Climate change is expected to increase rainfall intensity, potentially worsening flood events.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Urban development
  • ·Inadequate drainage infrastructure

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

6.5

2050

7.0

Data source

coastal Risk

10/100

Borenore is not directly exposed to coastal risks.

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

1.0

2050

1.0

Data source

bushfire Risk

40/100

Borenore has a moderate bushfire risk due to surrounding vegetation. Hotter, drier conditions are projected to increase the frequency and intensity of bushfires.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased temperatures
  • ·Drier conditions
  • ·Fuel load

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

4.5

2050

5.0

Data source

What This Means for Property Owners

Insurance Outlook

Insurance premiums are likely to increase due to the rising risk of extreme weather events.

Price Impact

Properties in flood-prone areas may experience a decrease in value.

Buyer Checklist

  • 1.Check flood maps and bushfire prone areas.
  • 2.Assess the property's vulnerability to heatwaves.
  • 3.Review insurance options and premiums.
  • 4.Consider the long-term climate risks.

Local Climate Evidence

Flood Evidence

Nearest Waterway
Borenore Creek
Elevation Range
600-700m
Flood Zone
Moderate

Local creeks and drainage systems are susceptible to overflow during heavy rainfall events.

View council flood map

Bushfire Evidence

Distance to Bushland
Adjacent
Planning Overlay
RFS Bush Fire Prone Land
Bushfire Prone Area
Yes

The area is designated as bushfire prone, requiring specific building standards for new constructions.

Heat Evidence

Avg January Max Temp
30.5°C
Heat Stress Days/Year
3 days

Heatwaves are becoming more frequent and intense, posing a risk to vulnerable residents.

Coastal Evidence

Distance to Coast
250 km
Sea Level Rise Exposure
Not Applicable
Erosion Risk
Not Applicable

Historical Climate Events

2010
floodModerate

Heavy rainfall caused flooding in low-lying areas of Borenore.

Source
2013
bushfireModerate

A bushfire near Borenore threatened properties and required emergency response.

Source
2017
heatwaveModerate

A prolonged heatwave resulted in heat stress and health concerns for residents.

Source
2020
bushfireMajor

Widespread bushfires impacted the region, causing significant damage and disruption.

Source

Climate Outlook to 2050

Projections based on CSIRO and BOM climate modelling. Scenario: RCP8.5

HazardToday20302050
flood606.5(+0.5)7.0(+1.0)
bushfire404.5(+0.5)5.0(+1.0)
heat707.5(+0.5)8.0(+1.0)
coastal101.01.0

By 2030, Borenore is projected to experience a moderate increase in overall climate risk, with higher risks from flooding, bushfires, and heatwaves.

CSIRO Climate Projections

Adaptation Recommendations

Improve Drainage Infrastructure

Near-term

Upgrade drainage systems to handle increased rainfall intensity and reduce the risk of flooding.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Bushfire Mitigation Measures

Immediate

Implement bushfire mitigation measures, such as fuel reduction and fire breaks, to protect properties.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Heatwave Preparedness Plan

Near-term

Develop a heatwave preparedness plan to protect vulnerable residents during extreme heat events.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

Community Awareness Programs

Long-term

Conduct community awareness programs to educate residents about climate risks and adaptation measures.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

About Borenore's Climate Risk Profile

Borenore, located in New South Wales, is exposed to a range of climate-related risks. The primary concerns are flooding due to increased rainfall intensity, bushfires exacerbated by hotter and drier conditions, and heatwaves that pose a threat to public health.

Climate change projections indicate that these risks will intensify in the coming decades. Higher average temperatures and altered rainfall patterns are expected to increase the frequency and severity of extreme weather events. This could lead to property damage, disruptions to infrastructure, and health impacts on vulnerable populations.

Flooding is a significant concern due to the suburb's proximity to waterways. Increased rainfall intensity can overwhelm drainage systems and cause widespread inundation. Bushfires pose a threat due to the surrounding vegetation, which can become highly flammable during hot and dry periods.

Heatwaves are also a growing concern, particularly for elderly residents and those with pre-existing health conditions. Prolonged periods of extreme heat can lead to heatstroke and other heat-related illnesses. It is essential for residents to take precautions to stay cool and hydrated during heatwaves.

Addressing these climate risks requires a combination of mitigation and adaptation measures. Mitigation involves reducing greenhouse gas emissions to slow down the rate of climate change. Adaptation involves taking steps to prepare for the impacts of climate change that are already locked in.

Data sources: BOM · CSIRO · NSW RFS · Orange City Council

Local Government Resources

Orange City Council

Climate StrategyFlood MapsEmergency Services

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the main climate risks facing Borenore?

Borenore faces risks from flooding, bushfires, and heatwaves, which are projected to worsen with climate change.

How will climate change affect property values in Borenore?

Properties in flood-prone areas may experience a decrease in value due to increased flood risk.

What can I do to prepare for heatwaves in Borenore?

Stay cool and hydrated, avoid strenuous activities during the hottest part of the day, and check on vulnerable neighbors.

What is the council doing to address climate change in Borenore?

The council is implementing various measures, such as upgrading drainage infrastructure and developing a heatwave preparedness plan.

Where can I find more information about climate risks in Borenore?

You can find more information on the council website, the Bureau of Meteorology website, and the NSW Rural Fire Service website.

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