Climate Risk Assessment for Bourke, NSW

Bourke, New South Wales· Bourke· 2840
High Risk
Updated May 2026

Bourke is a regional town in New South Wales facing increasing risks from heatwaves and flooding. Climate change is expected to exacerbate these risks, particularly heat and riverine flooding. Residents should prepare for more frequent and intense extreme weather events.

Overall Risk Score

72/100
High

Confidence: Medium

Hazard Breakdown

Flood
6.8
Bushfire
5.5
Heat
8.5
Coastal
1.0

Climate Hazard Breakdown for Bourke

increasing

Flood

68/100

Bourke faces a moderate risk of flooding due to its location near the Darling River. Riverine flooding can inundate low-lying areas.

Key drivers:

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Riverine overflow
increasing

Bushfire

55/100

Bourke has a moderate bushfire risk due to surrounding grasslands and sparse vegetation. Hot, dry conditions increase the likelihood of fire.

Key drivers:

  • ·Dry vegetation
  • ·High temperatures
increasing

Heat

85/100

Bourke experiences high heat risk with frequent heatwaves and extremely high temperatures during summer. This poses a significant health risk to vulnerable populations.

Key drivers:

  • ·Rising average temperatures
  • ·More frequent heatwaves
stable

Coastal

10/100

Bourke is located far inland and has negligible coastal risk.

Key drivers:

  • ·Distance from coast
stable

Wind

40/100

Moderate wind risk — East Coast Lows and gust fronts

stable

Storm

55/100

Moderate storm risk — severe thunderstorms and hail

stable

Social

30/100

Moderate social stability — mixed urban density

increasing

Energy

50/100

Moderate energy costs — climate-driven cooling demand

In-Depth Climate Risk Guides for Bourke

Detailed Hazard Analysis

heat Risk

85/100

Bourke experiences high heat risk with frequent heatwaves and extremely high temperatures during summer. This poses a significant health risk to vulnerable populations.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Rising average temperatures
  • ·More frequent heatwaves
  • ·Urban heat island effect

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

9.0

2050

9.5

Data source

flood Risk

68/100

Bourke faces a moderate risk of flooding due to its location near the Darling River. Riverine flooding can inundate low-lying areas.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Riverine overflow
  • ·Climate change

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

7.2

2050

7.8

Data source

coastal Risk

10/100

Bourke is located far inland and has negligible coastal risk.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Distance from coast

Projections (N/A)

2030

1.0

2050

1.0

Data source

bushfire Risk

55/100

Bourke has a moderate bushfire risk due to surrounding grasslands and sparse vegetation. Hot, dry conditions increase the likelihood of fire.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Dry vegetation
  • ·High temperatures
  • ·Windy conditions

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

6.0

2050

6.5

Data source

What This Means for Property Owners

Insurance Outlook

Insurance premiums are likely to increase due to the increasing risk of flooding and heatwaves.

Price Impact

Properties in flood-prone areas may experience a decrease in value.

Buyer Checklist

  • 1.Check flood maps and insurance costs.
  • 2.Assess property's vulnerability to heatwaves.
  • 3.Consider potential impacts of climate change on property value.

Local Climate Evidence

Flood Evidence

Nearest Waterway
Darling River
Elevation Range
100-110m
Flood Zone
Areas adjacent to the Darling River are designated as flood zones.

The Darling River has a history of major flooding events in Bourke. Council maintains flood maps and provides information to residents on how to prepare for floods.

View council flood map

Bushfire Evidence

Distance to Bushland
Approximately 5km to nearest significant bushland.
Planning Overlay
Check with NSW RFS for current bushfire prone area maps.
Bushfire Prone Area
Yes

While not immediately surrounded by dense forest, Bourke is located in a region prone to grassfires. Residents should maintain their properties to reduce fire risk.

Heat Evidence

Avg January Max Temp
36.5°C
Heat Stress Days/Year
15 days

Bourke experiences extreme heat during summer months. The average maximum temperature in January is very high, and the number of days exceeding 35°C is significant.

Coastal Evidence

Distance to Coast
800 km
Sea Level Rise Exposure
Not applicable.
Erosion Risk
Not applicable.

Historical Climate Events

2010
floodMajor

Major flooding of the Darling River inundated parts of Bourke, causing significant damage to property and infrastructure.

Source
2013
heatwaveModerate

Prolonged heatwave with record-breaking temperatures impacted Bourke, leading to increased hospital admissions.

Source
2019
droughtCatastrophic

Severe drought conditions impacted Bourke and surrounding areas, leading to water shortages and agricultural losses.

Source
2022
floodModerate

Moderate flooding along the Darling River impacted low-lying areas in Bourke.

Source

Climate Outlook to 2050

Projections based on CSIRO and BOM climate modelling. Scenario: RCP8.5

HazardToday20302050
flood687.2(+0.4)7.6(+0.8)
bushfire555.8(+0.3)6.0(+0.5)
heat859.3(+0.8)10.0(+1.5)
coastal101.01.0

By 2030, Bourke is projected to experience more frequent and intense heatwaves, as well as an increased risk of flooding. Bushfire risk is also expected to increase slightly.

CSIRO Climate Projections

Adaptation Recommendations

Improve flood defenses

Near-term

Invest in levees and other flood defenses to protect properties from riverine flooding.

Est. cost: High

Learn more

Develop a heatwave management plan

Immediate

Implement a heatwave management plan to protect vulnerable populations during extreme heat events.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Enhance bushfire preparedness

Near-term

Implement bushfire mitigation strategies, such as controlled burns and community education programs.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Upgrade water infrastructure

Long-term

Invest in water infrastructure to ensure a reliable water supply during periods of drought.

Est. cost: High

Learn more

About Bourke's Climate Risk Profile

Bourke, located in the far west of New South Wales, is particularly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. The region already experiences high temperatures, and projections indicate a significant increase in the frequency and intensity of heatwaves. This poses a serious threat to public health, especially for the elderly and those with pre-existing conditions.

Riverine flooding is another major concern for Bourke. The Darling River, which runs through the town, is prone to flooding during periods of heavy rainfall. Climate change is expected to increase rainfall intensity, leading to more frequent and severe flooding events. This can cause significant damage to property and infrastructure, as well as disrupt essential services.

Bushfire risk is also present, although less pronounced than heat and flooding. The surrounding grasslands and sparse vegetation can become highly flammable during hot, dry periods. While Bourke is not directly adjacent to dense bushland, the risk of grassfires spreading into the town remains a concern.

Adapting to these climate risks will require a multi-faceted approach, including investments in infrastructure, improved emergency preparedness, and community awareness programs. Residents should take steps to protect themselves and their properties from the impacts of extreme weather events.

Data sources: BOM · CSIRO · NSW SES · NSW RFS

Local Government Resources

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the main climate risks facing Bourke?

Bourke faces increasing risks from heatwaves, flooding, and drought due to climate change.

How will climate change affect property values in Bourke?

Properties in flood-prone areas may experience a decrease in value due to increased flood risk.

What is the council doing to address climate change?

Bourke Shire Council is developing strategies to mitigate and adapt to the impacts of climate change, including flood mitigation and heatwave management plans.

How can I prepare for heatwaves in Bourke?

Stay hydrated, seek air-conditioned environments, and check on vulnerable neighbors during heatwaves.

Where can I find information about flood risks in Bourke?

Flood maps and information are available on the Bourke Shire Council website and the NSW State Emergency Service website.

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What A$69 could save you from

$7.2B
2022 insured disaster losses*
$300B+
climate risk to property by 2050*
30-120%
insurance premium increases in high-risk areas*

*Industry sources: ICA, APRA, RBA

Full report from A$69 · Australian addresses only · 8 hazard scores · Insurance trajectory · 2030 & 2050 projections

Climate Risk in Bourke Nsw, NSW: 2026 Assessment | ClimateNest