Climate Risk Profile: Braemar Bay, NSW

Braemar Bay, New South Wales
Medium Risk
Updated May 2026

Braemar Bay faces moderate risks from flooding, bushfires, and heatwaves, which are expected to increase with climate change. Residents should prepare for more frequent extreme weather events and take steps to mitigate their impact.

Overall Risk Score

58/100
Medium

Confidence: Medium

Hazard Breakdown

Flood
6.5
Bushfire
4.2
Heat
7.1
Coastal
1.5

Climate Hazard Breakdown for Braemar Bay

increasing

Flood

65/100

Braemar Bay faces a moderate risk of flooding due to its proximity to waterways and low-lying areas. Climate change is expected to increase rainfall intensity, exacerbating flood risk.

Key drivers:

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Sea level rise
increasing

Bushfire

42/100

Braemar Bay has a moderate bushfire risk due to surrounding vegetation. Drier conditions and higher temperatures are expected to increase the frequency and intensity of bushfires.

Key drivers:

  • ·Increased temperatures
  • ·Drier conditions
increasing

Heat

71/100

Braemar Bay is likely to experience more frequent and intense heatwaves. Higher temperatures can pose health risks, especially for vulnerable populations.

Key drivers:

  • ·Increased greenhouse gas emissions
  • ·Urban heat island effect
stable

Coastal

15/100

Braemar Bay has a low coastal risk. Sea level rise and coastal erosion are not significant concerns for this suburb.

Key drivers:

  • ·Sea level rise
  • ·Storm surges
stable

Wind

28/100

Moderate wind risk — East Coast Lows and gust fronts

stable

Storm

39/100

Moderate storm risk — severe thunderstorms and hail

stable

Social

21/100

Moderate social stability — mixed urban density

increasing

Energy

35/100

Moderate energy costs — climate-driven cooling demand

In-Depth Climate Risk Guides for Braemar Bay

Detailed Hazard Analysis

heat Risk

71/100

Braemar Bay is likely to experience more frequent and intense heatwaves. Higher temperatures can pose health risks, especially for vulnerable populations.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased greenhouse gas emissions
  • ·Urban heat island effect

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

7.8

2050

8.5

Data source

flood Risk

65/100

Braemar Bay faces a moderate risk of flooding due to its proximity to waterways and low-lying areas. Climate change is expected to increase rainfall intensity, exacerbating flood risk.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Sea level rise
  • ·Urban development

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

7.0

2050

7.5

Data source

coastal Risk

15/100

Braemar Bay has a low coastal risk. Sea level rise and coastal erosion are not significant concerns for this suburb.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Sea level rise
  • ·Storm surges

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

1.7

2050

2.0

Data source

bushfire Risk

42/100

Braemar Bay has a moderate bushfire risk due to surrounding vegetation. Drier conditions and higher temperatures are expected to increase the frequency and intensity of bushfires.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased temperatures
  • ·Drier conditions
  • ·Vegetation density

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

4.8

2050

5.5

Data source

What This Means for Property Owners

Insurance Outlook

Insurance premiums are likely to increase due to climate risks.

Price Impact

Properties in high-risk areas may experience a decrease in value.

Buyer Checklist

  • 1.Check flood maps and bushfire prone areas.
  • 2.Assess property resilience to extreme weather.
  • 3.Consider energy efficiency and water conservation measures.

Local Climate Evidence

Flood Evidence

Nearest Waterway
Local Creek
Elevation Range
5-15m
Flood Zone
Partially within flood zone

Some areas near the creek are prone to flash flooding.

View council flood map

Bushfire Evidence

Distance to Bushland
1km
Planning Overlay
Bushfire prone area overlay
Bushfire Prone Area
Yes

Properties on the edge of the suburb are at higher risk.

Heat Evidence

Avg January Max Temp
31.5°C
Heat Stress Days/Year
3 days

Urban areas experience higher temperatures due to the heat island effect.

Coastal Evidence

Distance to Coast
50 km
Sea Level Rise Exposure
Low
Erosion Risk
Low

Historical Climate Events

2011
floodModerate

Major flooding event impacted the region, causing property damage and disruptions.

Source
2013
bushfireModerate

Bushfires in the surrounding area caused smoke haze and elevated fire danger.

Source
2017
heatwaveModerate

Prolonged heatwave conditions led to increased hospital admissions.

Source
2020
bushfireMajor

Significant bushfires impacted the region, causing widespread damage and evacuations.

Source

Climate Outlook to 2050

Projections based on CSIRO and BOM climate modelling. Scenario: RCP8.5

HazardToday20302050
flood656.8(+0.3)7.1(+0.6)
bushfire424.4(+0.2)4.7(+0.5)
heat717.8(+0.7)8.6(+1.5)
coastal151.6(+0.1)1.7(+0.2)

By 2030, Braemar Bay is projected to experience a notable increase in heatwave frequency and intensity, along with a moderate rise in flood and bushfire risk. Coastal risks remain relatively stable.

CSIRO Climate Projections

Adaptation Recommendations

Improve Flood Defenses

Near-term

Upgrade drainage systems and implement flood barriers to protect properties.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Bushfire Preparedness

Immediate

Clear vegetation around properties and develop a bushfire survival plan.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

Heatwave Management

Near-term

Establish cooling centers and provide support for vulnerable residents during heatwaves.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Water Conservation

Long-term

Implement water-saving measures to reduce water stress during droughts.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

About Braemar Bay's Climate Risk Profile

Braemar Bay is a suburb in New South Wales that is increasingly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. The primary risks include flooding, bushfires, and heatwaves. Changes in rainfall patterns and rising temperatures are expected to exacerbate these risks in the coming decades.

Flooding is a significant concern due to increased rainfall intensity and potential sea level rise. The suburb may experience more frequent and severe flood events, impacting property and infrastructure. Bushfire risk is also increasing due to drier conditions and higher temperatures, making the area more susceptible to wildfires.

Heatwaves are becoming more frequent and intense, posing health risks to residents, particularly the elderly and those with pre-existing conditions. The urban heat island effect may further amplify these risks. Coastal risks are relatively low, but long-term sea level rise could still pose a threat.

Adapting to these changes will require a combination of individual actions and community-level initiatives. Residents should take steps to protect their homes and prepare for extreme weather events. Local authorities need to implement strategies to mitigate climate risks and enhance community resilience.

Data sources: BOM · CSIRO · NSW SES · NSW RFS

Local Government Resources

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the main climate change risks in Braemar Bay?

The main risks are increased flooding, bushfire risk, and more frequent and intense heatwaves.

How can I prepare my home for a flood?

Elevate appliances, clear gutters, and have sandbags ready.

What should I do during a heatwave?

Stay hydrated, seek air-conditioned environments, and check on vulnerable neighbors.

How can I reduce my bushfire risk?

Clear vegetation around your property, maintain your roof and gutters, and have a bushfire survival plan.

Where can I find more information about local climate change initiatives?

Visit the local council website or attend community meetings.

Get your property's risk report

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What A$69 could save you from

$7.2B
2022 insured disaster losses*
$300B+
climate risk to property by 2050*
30-120%
insurance premium increases in high-risk areas*

*Industry sources: ICA, APRA, RBA

Full report from A$69 · Australian addresses only · 8 hazard scores · Insurance trajectory · 2030 & 2050 projections