Climate Risk Profile: Braemar Bay, NSW
Braemar Bay faces moderate risks from flooding, bushfires, and heatwaves, which are expected to increase with climate change. Residents should prepare for more frequent extreme weather events and take steps to mitigate their impact.
Overall Risk Score
Confidence: Medium
Hazard Breakdown
Climate Hazard Breakdown for Braemar Bay
Flood
Braemar Bay faces a moderate risk of flooding due to its proximity to waterways and low-lying areas. Climate change is expected to increase rainfall intensity, exacerbating flood risk.
Key drivers:
- ·Increased rainfall intensity
- ·Sea level rise
Bushfire
Braemar Bay has a moderate bushfire risk due to surrounding vegetation. Drier conditions and higher temperatures are expected to increase the frequency and intensity of bushfires.
Key drivers:
- ·Increased temperatures
- ·Drier conditions
Heat
Braemar Bay is likely to experience more frequent and intense heatwaves. Higher temperatures can pose health risks, especially for vulnerable populations.
Key drivers:
- ·Increased greenhouse gas emissions
- ·Urban heat island effect
Coastal
Braemar Bay has a low coastal risk. Sea level rise and coastal erosion are not significant concerns for this suburb.
Key drivers:
- ·Sea level rise
- ·Storm surges
Wind
Moderate wind risk — East Coast Lows and gust fronts
Storm
Moderate storm risk — severe thunderstorms and hail
Social
Moderate social stability — mixed urban density
Energy
Moderate energy costs — climate-driven cooling demand
In-Depth Climate Risk Guides for Braemar Bay
Property buying guide with climate risk assessment
Flood zone mapping, historical events, and projections
BAL assessment, vegetation proximity, and fire history
Multi-hazard safety assessment to 2050
Severe weather, hail, and wind risk analysis
Extreme heat days, urban heat island, and cooling costs
Premium estimates and insurance availability
Climate-adjusted property investment analysis
Detailed Hazard Analysis
heat Risk
Braemar Bay is likely to experience more frequent and intense heatwaves. Higher temperatures can pose health risks, especially for vulnerable populations.
Primary Drivers
- ·Increased greenhouse gas emissions
- ·Urban heat island effect
Projections (RCP8.5)
2030
7.8
2050
8.5
flood Risk
Braemar Bay faces a moderate risk of flooding due to its proximity to waterways and low-lying areas. Climate change is expected to increase rainfall intensity, exacerbating flood risk.
Primary Drivers
- ·Increased rainfall intensity
- ·Sea level rise
- ·Urban development
Projections (RCP8.5)
2030
7.0
2050
7.5
coastal Risk
Braemar Bay has a low coastal risk. Sea level rise and coastal erosion are not significant concerns for this suburb.
Primary Drivers
- ·Sea level rise
- ·Storm surges
Projections (RCP8.5)
2030
1.7
2050
2.0
bushfire Risk
Braemar Bay has a moderate bushfire risk due to surrounding vegetation. Drier conditions and higher temperatures are expected to increase the frequency and intensity of bushfires.
Primary Drivers
- ·Increased temperatures
- ·Drier conditions
- ·Vegetation density
Projections (RCP8.5)
2030
4.8
2050
5.5
What This Means for Property Owners
Insurance Outlook
Insurance premiums are likely to increase due to climate risks.
Price Impact
Properties in high-risk areas may experience a decrease in value.
Buyer Checklist
- 1.Check flood maps and bushfire prone areas.
- 2.Assess property resilience to extreme weather.
- 3.Consider energy efficiency and water conservation measures.
Local Climate Evidence
Flood Evidence
- Nearest Waterway
- Local Creek
- Elevation Range
- 5-15m
- Flood Zone
- Partially within flood zone
Some areas near the creek are prone to flash flooding.
View council flood mapBushfire Evidence
- Distance to Bushland
- 1km
- Planning Overlay
- Bushfire prone area overlay
- Bushfire Prone Area
- Yes
Properties on the edge of the suburb are at higher risk.
Heat Evidence
- Avg January Max Temp
- 31.5°C
- Heat Stress Days/Year
- 3 days
Urban areas experience higher temperatures due to the heat island effect.
Coastal Evidence
- Distance to Coast
- 50 km
- Sea Level Rise Exposure
- Low
- Erosion Risk
- Low
Historical Climate Events
Climate Outlook to 2050
Projections based on CSIRO and BOM climate modelling. Scenario: RCP8.5
| Hazard | Today | 2030 | 2050 |
|---|---|---|---|
| flood | 65 | 6.8(+0.3) | 7.1(+0.6) |
| bushfire | 42 | 4.4(+0.2) | 4.7(+0.5) |
| heat | 71 | 7.8(+0.7) | 8.6(+1.5) |
| coastal | 15 | 1.6(+0.1) | 1.7(+0.2) |
By 2030, Braemar Bay is projected to experience a notable increase in heatwave frequency and intensity, along with a moderate rise in flood and bushfire risk. Coastal risks remain relatively stable.
CSIRO Climate ProjectionsAdaptation Recommendations
Improve Flood Defenses
Near-termUpgrade drainage systems and implement flood barriers to protect properties.
Est. cost: Medium
Learn moreBushfire Preparedness
ImmediateClear vegetation around properties and develop a bushfire survival plan.
Est. cost: Low
Learn moreHeatwave Management
Near-termEstablish cooling centers and provide support for vulnerable residents during heatwaves.
Est. cost: Medium
Learn moreWater Conservation
Long-termImplement water-saving measures to reduce water stress during droughts.
Est. cost: Low
Learn moreAbout Braemar Bay's Climate Risk Profile
Braemar Bay is a suburb in New South Wales that is increasingly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. The primary risks include flooding, bushfires, and heatwaves. Changes in rainfall patterns and rising temperatures are expected to exacerbate these risks in the coming decades.
Flooding is a significant concern due to increased rainfall intensity and potential sea level rise. The suburb may experience more frequent and severe flood events, impacting property and infrastructure. Bushfire risk is also increasing due to drier conditions and higher temperatures, making the area more susceptible to wildfires.
Heatwaves are becoming more frequent and intense, posing health risks to residents, particularly the elderly and those with pre-existing conditions. The urban heat island effect may further amplify these risks. Coastal risks are relatively low, but long-term sea level rise could still pose a threat.
Adapting to these changes will require a combination of individual actions and community-level initiatives. Residents should take steps to protect their homes and prepare for extreme weather events. Local authorities need to implement strategies to mitigate climate risks and enhance community resilience.
Data sources: BOM · CSIRO · NSW SES · NSW RFS
Local Government Resources
Local Council
Frequently Asked Questions
What are the main climate change risks in Braemar Bay?
The main risks are increased flooding, bushfire risk, and more frequent and intense heatwaves.
How can I prepare my home for a flood?
Elevate appliances, clear gutters, and have sandbags ready.
What should I do during a heatwave?
Stay hydrated, seek air-conditioned environments, and check on vulnerable neighbors.
How can I reduce my bushfire risk?
Clear vegetation around your property, maintain your roof and gutters, and have a bushfire survival plan.
Where can I find more information about local climate change initiatives?
Visit the local council website or attend community meetings.
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