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Climate Risk Assessment for Braunstone, NSW

Braunstone, New South Wales
Medium Risk
Updated May 2026

Braunstone faces increasing risks from flooding and heatwaves due to climate change. Bushfire risk is also a concern. Residents should prepare for more extreme weather events.

Overall Risk Score

55/100
Medium

Confidence: Medium

Hazard Breakdown

Flood
6.0
Bushfire
4.0
Heat
7.0
Coastal
3.0

Climate Hazard Breakdown for Braunstone

increasing

Flood

60/100

Braunstone faces a moderate risk of flooding, primarily from heavy rainfall events and nearby waterways. The risk is expected to increase due to climate change.

Key drivers:

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Sea level rise
increasing

Bushfire

40/100

The bushfire risk in Braunstone is moderate, influenced by surrounding vegetation and dry conditions. Climate change is projected to exacerbate these conditions.

Key drivers:

  • ·Higher temperatures
  • ·Drier vegetation
increasing

Heat

70/100

Braunstone is likely to experience more frequent and intense heatwaves. This poses a significant risk to vulnerable populations.

Key drivers:

  • ·Rising average temperatures
  • ·Increased frequency of heatwaves
stable

Coastal

30/100

As an inland suburb, Braunstone has a low direct risk from coastal hazards. However, climate change impacts may affect the region indirectly.

Key drivers:

  • ·Sea level rise (indirect)
  • ·Changes in rainfall patterns
stable

Wind

28/100

Moderate wind risk — East Coast Lows and gust fronts

stable

Storm

39/100

Moderate storm risk — severe thunderstorms and hail

stable

Social

21/100

Moderate social stability — mixed urban density

increasing

Energy

35/100

Moderate energy costs — climate-driven cooling demand

In-Depth Climate Risk Guides for Braunstone

Should I Buy

Property buying guide with climate risk assessment

Flood Risk

Flood zone mapping, historical events, and projections

Bushfire Risk

BAL assessment, vegetation proximity, and fire history

Climate Safety

Multi-hazard safety assessment to 2050

Storm Risk

Severe weather, hail, and wind risk analysis

Heat Risk

Extreme heat days, urban heat island, and cooling costs

Insurance Costs

Premium estimates and insurance availability

Investment Score

Climate-adjusted property investment analysis

Detailed Hazard Analysis

heat Risk

70/100

Braunstone is likely to experience more frequent and intense heatwaves. This poses a significant risk to vulnerable populations.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Rising average temperatures
  • ·Increased frequency of heatwaves
  • ·Urban heat island effect

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

7.5

2050

8.0

Data source

flood Risk

60/100

Braunstone faces a moderate risk of flooding, primarily from heavy rainfall events and nearby waterways. The risk is expected to increase due to climate change.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Sea level rise
  • ·Urban development

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

6.5

2050

7.0

Data source

coastal Risk

30/100

As an inland suburb, Braunstone has a low direct risk from coastal hazards. However, climate change impacts may affect the region indirectly.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Sea level rise (indirect)
  • ·Changes in rainfall patterns

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

3.0

2050

3.0

Data source

bushfire Risk

40/100

The bushfire risk in Braunstone is moderate, influenced by surrounding vegetation and dry conditions. Climate change is projected to exacerbate these conditions.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Higher temperatures
  • ·Drier vegetation
  • ·Increased frequency of heatwaves

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

4.5

2050

5.0

Data source

What This Means for Property Owners

Insurance Outlook

Insurance premiums are likely to increase due to rising climate risks.

Price Impact

Property values may be negatively impacted by increased flood and bushfire risk.

Buyer Checklist

  • 1.Check flood maps and historical flood data.
  • 2.Assess bushfire risk and implement mitigation measures.
  • 3.Consider energy efficiency and cooling options.
  • 4.Review insurance coverage and potential premium increases.

Local Climate Evidence

Flood Evidence

Nearest Waterway
Clarence River
Elevation Range
20-40m
Flood Zone
Unknown

Historical flood data indicates past inundation events in low-lying areas.

View council flood map

Bushfire Evidence

Distance to Bushland
5km
Planning Overlay
NSW RFS Bush Fire Prone Land Map
Bushfire Prone Area
Yes

The area is classified as bushfire prone due to surrounding vegetation.

Heat Evidence

Avg January Max Temp
31.5°C
Heat Stress Days/Year
5 days

Heatwaves are becoming more frequent and intense in the region.

Coastal Evidence

Distance to Coast
30 km
Sea Level Rise Exposure
Low
Erosion Risk
Low

Historical Climate Events

2013
floodModerate

Significant flooding occurred in the Clarence River catchment, impacting low-lying areas.

Source
2019
bushfireModerate

Bushfires impacted areas surrounding Braunstone, causing smoke haze and potential property damage.

Source
2017
heatwaveModerate

A prolonged heatwave resulted in high temperatures and heat stress for vulnerable populations.

Source
2022
floodMajor

Severe flooding event impacted the region, causing widespread damage and displacement.

Source

Climate Outlook to 2050

Projections based on CSIRO and BOM climate modelling. Scenario: RCP8.5

HazardToday20302050
flood606.5(+0.5)7.0(+1.0)
bushfire404.3(+0.3)4.6(+0.6)
heat707.7(+0.7)8.2(+1.2)
coastal303.03.0

By 2030, Braunstone is projected to experience a notable increase in heatwave frequency and intensity, along with a heightened risk of flooding due to more extreme rainfall events. Bushfire risk will also increase.

CSIRO Climate Projections

Adaptation Recommendations

Improve Drainage Infrastructure

Near-term

Upgrade local drainage systems to handle increased rainfall intensity and reduce flood risk.

Est. cost: High

Learn more

Implement Heat Action Plan

Immediate

Develop a community heat action plan to protect vulnerable populations during heatwaves.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Bushfire Mitigation Measures

Near-term

Implement bushfire mitigation measures, such as vegetation management and fire breaks, to reduce bushfire risk.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Community Awareness Programs

Long-term

Conduct community awareness programs to educate residents about climate risks and adaptation strategies.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

Promote Water Conservation

Long-term

Encourage water conservation measures to reduce water stress during droughts and heatwaves.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

About Braunstone's Climate Risk Profile

Braunstone, NSW, is projected to experience a range of climate change impacts over the coming decades. The most significant risks include increased flooding due to more intense rainfall events, and more frequent and severe heatwaves. Bushfire risk is also expected to rise, driven by hotter, drier conditions.

The risk of flooding is exacerbated by the suburb's proximity to waterways and potential changes in rainfall patterns. Residents should be aware of local flood risks and take steps to prepare for potential inundation. The increasing frequency and intensity of heatwaves pose a significant threat to vulnerable populations, particularly the elderly and those with pre-existing health conditions.

While Braunstone is not directly exposed to coastal hazards, the broader region may experience indirect impacts from sea level rise and coastal erosion. These impacts could include disruptions to infrastructure and supply chains.

Adapting to these changes will require a combination of individual actions and community-level initiatives. Residents can take steps to reduce their exposure to climate risks, such as improving home insulation, installing rainwater tanks, and developing emergency plans. Local authorities can play a key role in implementing climate adaptation strategies, such as upgrading drainage infrastructure, planting trees to reduce urban heat island effects, and providing support to vulnerable communities.

Data sources: BOM · CSIRO · NSW RFS · NSW SES

Local Government Resources

UNKNOWN

Climate StrategyFlood MapsEmergency Services

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the main climate change risks for Braunstone?

The main risks are increased flooding, more frequent and intense heatwaves, and a higher risk of bushfires.

How will climate change affect property values in Braunstone?

Increased climate risks may negatively impact property values, particularly for properties in flood-prone or bushfire-prone areas.

What can I do to prepare for more frequent heatwaves?

Improve home insulation, install air conditioning or fans, stay hydrated, and check on vulnerable neighbors.

Where can I find information about local flood risks?

Contact the local council or emergency services for information about flood maps and historical flood data.

What is the council doing to address climate change?

The council is developing and implementing climate adaptation strategies, such as upgrading drainage infrastructure and planting trees to reduce urban heat island effects. Contact the council for more information.

How can I reduce my carbon footprint in Braunstone?

Use public transport, cycle or walk, reduce energy consumption, and support local businesses that are committed to sustainability.

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