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Climate Risk Profile: Broughton Vale, NSW

Broughton Vale, New South Wales
Medium Risk
Updated May 2026

Broughton Vale faces increasing risks from flooding and heatwaves due to climate change. The suburb's proximity to waterways and bushland also contributes to flood and bushfire risks. Residents should prepare for more frequent extreme weather events.

Overall Risk Score

58/100
Medium

Confidence: Medium

Hazard Breakdown

Flood
6.5
Bushfire
4.2
Heat
7.1
Coastal
1.0

Climate Hazard Breakdown for Broughton Vale

increasing

Flood

65/100

Broughton Vale faces a moderate risk of flooding due to its proximity to waterways and low-lying areas. Intense rainfall events can lead to riverine and flash flooding.

Key drivers:

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Urban development
increasing

Bushfire

42/100

The risk of bushfire in Broughton Vale is moderate, given the presence of surrounding bushland. Hot, dry conditions and strong winds can exacerbate the risk.

Key drivers:

  • ·Increased frequency of heatwaves
  • ·Drier vegetation
increasing

Heat

71/100

Broughton Vale is likely to experience an increase in the frequency and intensity of heatwaves, posing a risk to vulnerable populations.

Key drivers:

  • ·Rising global temperatures
  • ·Urban heat island effect
stable

Coastal

10/100

Coastal risk is low in Broughton Vale due to its inland location.

Key drivers:

  • ·Sea level rise
stable

Wind

28/100

Moderate wind risk — East Coast Lows and gust fronts

stable

Storm

39/100

Moderate storm risk — severe thunderstorms and hail

stable

Social

21/100

Moderate social stability — mixed urban density

increasing

Energy

35/100

Moderate energy costs — climate-driven cooling demand

In-Depth Climate Risk Guides for Broughton Vale

Should I Buy

Property buying guide with climate risk assessment

Flood Risk

Flood zone mapping, historical events, and projections

Bushfire Risk

BAL assessment, vegetation proximity, and fire history

Climate Safety

Multi-hazard safety assessment to 2050

Storm Risk

Severe weather, hail, and wind risk analysis

Heat Risk

Extreme heat days, urban heat island, and cooling costs

Insurance Costs

Premium estimates and insurance availability

Investment Score

Climate-adjusted property investment analysis

Detailed Hazard Analysis

heat Risk

71/100

Broughton Vale is likely to experience an increase in the frequency and intensity of heatwaves, posing a risk to vulnerable populations.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Rising global temperatures
  • ·Urban heat island effect

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

7.6

2050

8.1

Data source

flood Risk

65/100

Broughton Vale faces a moderate risk of flooding due to its proximity to waterways and low-lying areas. Intense rainfall events can lead to riverine and flash flooding.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Urban development
  • ·Climate change

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

7.0

2050

7.5

Data source

coastal Risk

10/100

Coastal risk is low in Broughton Vale due to its inland location.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Sea level rise

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

1.0

2050

1.0

Data source

bushfire Risk

42/100

The risk of bushfire in Broughton Vale is moderate, given the presence of surrounding bushland. Hot, dry conditions and strong winds can exacerbate the risk.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased frequency of heatwaves
  • ·Drier vegetation
  • ·Stronger winds

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

4.7

2050

5.2

Data source

What This Means for Property Owners

Insurance Outlook

Insurance premiums are likely to increase due to the rising risks of flooding and bushfires.

Price Impact

Properties in flood-prone areas may experience a decrease in value.

Buyer Checklist

  • 1.Check flood maps and historical flood data.
  • 2.Assess bushfire risk and ember attack potential.
  • 3.Ensure adequate home insurance coverage.
  • 4.Consider energy efficiency upgrades to mitigate heat impacts.

Local Climate Evidence

Flood Evidence

Nearest Waterway
Broughton Creek
Elevation Range
50-80m
Flood Zone
Low to Moderate

Historical flood data indicates that Broughton Creek has overflowed during periods of heavy rainfall, impacting low-lying areas of the suburb.

View council flood map

Bushfire Evidence

Distance to Bushland
Adjacent
Planning Overlay
RFS Bush Fire Prone Land Map
Bushfire Prone Area
Yes

The western edge of Broughton Vale borders significant bushland, increasing the risk of ember attacks during bushfire events.

Heat Evidence

Avg January Max Temp
28.5°C
Heat Stress Days/Year
3 days

The average maximum temperature in January is expected to increase, leading to more frequent and intense heat stress events.

Coastal Evidence

Distance to Coast
10 km
Sea Level Rise Exposure
Low
Erosion Risk
Low

Historical Climate Events

2011
floodModerate

Major flooding along Broughton Creek caused property damage and road closures.

Source
2013
bushfireMinor

A bushfire near Broughton Vale required RFS intervention to protect properties.

Source
2017
stormModerate

Severe thunderstorms caused flash flooding and power outages in Broughton Vale.

Source
2019
heatwaveModerate

Prolonged heatwave conditions led to increased hospital admissions for heat-related illnesses.

Source

Climate Outlook to 2050

Projections based on CSIRO and BOM climate modelling. Scenario: RCP8.5

HazardToday20302050
flood657.0(+0.5)7.5(+1.0)
bushfire424.5(+0.3)4.9(+0.7)
heat717.9(+0.8)8.6(+1.5)
coastal101.01.0

By 2030, Broughton Vale is projected to experience a notable increase in heatwave frequency and intensity, along with a moderate rise in flood risk due to more intense rainfall events. Bushfire risk will also increase slightly. Coastal risk remains low.

CSIRO Climate Projections

Adaptation Recommendations

Improve Flood Defenses

Near-term

Invest in infrastructure to mitigate flood risks, such as improved drainage systems and levees.

Est. cost: High

Learn more

Develop Heat Action Plan

Immediate

Implement a heat action plan to protect vulnerable residents during heatwaves, including cooling centers and public awareness campaigns.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Enhance Bushfire Preparedness

Near-term

Conduct community education programs on bushfire safety and evacuation procedures. Maintain fire breaks around properties.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

Promote Water Conservation

Long-term

Encourage water conservation measures to reduce water stress during periods of drought and heatwaves.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

About Broughton Vale's Climate Risk Profile

Broughton Vale, NSW, is a suburb that will likely experience the effects of climate change in the coming decades. The primary risks are associated with increased flooding, more intense heatwaves, and a heightened bushfire threat.

Flooding is a significant concern due to the suburb's location near waterways. Climate change is expected to increase rainfall intensity, leading to more frequent and severe flood events. Residents should be aware of flood risks and take appropriate precautions.

Heatwaves are also projected to become more common and intense, posing a health risk, particularly to vulnerable populations such as the elderly and those with pre-existing health conditions. It is important to have strategies in place to cope with extreme heat.

While Broughton Vale is not directly on the coast, the inland bushland areas surrounding the suburb are susceptible to bushfires. Drier conditions and higher temperatures will increase the risk of bushfires, making it essential for residents to be prepared and have evacuation plans in place.

Overall, Broughton Vale needs to adapt to these changing climate conditions to protect its residents and infrastructure. This includes investing in flood mitigation measures, implementing heatwave management plans, and improving bushfire preparedness.

Data sources: BOM · CSIRO · NSW RFS · Wingecarribee Shire Council

Local Government Resources

Wingecarribee Shire Council

Climate StrategyFlood MapsEmergency Services

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the main climate change risks for Broughton Vale?

The main climate change risks for Broughton Vale are increased flooding, more frequent and intense heatwaves, and a heightened bushfire threat.

How will climate change affect property values in Broughton Vale?

Properties in flood-prone areas may experience a decrease in value due to the increased risk of flooding. Insurance premiums are also likely to increase.

What can I do to prepare for heatwaves in Broughton Vale?

Stay indoors during the hottest part of the day, drink plenty of water, and check on vulnerable neighbors. Consider installing air conditioning or visiting a cooling center.

How can I protect my home from bushfires in Broughton Vale?

Maintain fire breaks around your property, clear gutters of dry leaves, and have a bushfire survival plan in place. Stay informed about bushfire alerts and warnings.

Where can I find more information about flood risks in Broughton Vale?

You can find flood maps and historical flood data on the Wingecarribee Shire Council website.

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