Climate Risk Assessment for Buccarumbi, NSW

Buccarumbi, New South Wales

Medium Risk

Updated May 2026

Buccarumbi faces increasing risks from flooding, bushfires, and heatwaves due to climate change. The suburb's location and environmental factors contribute to its vulnerability. Residents should prepare for more frequent extreme weather events.

Overall Risk Score

52/100

Medium

Confidence: Medium

Hazard Breakdown

Flood

6.0

Bushfire

7.0

Heat

4.0

Coastal

1.0

Climate Hazard Breakdown for Buccarumbi

increasing

Flood

60/100

Buccarumbi faces a moderate risk of flooding due to its proximity to waterways and low-lying areas. Intense rainfall events can lead to riverine and flash flooding.

Key drivers:

·Increased rainfall intensity
·Changes in land use

increasing

Bushfire

70/100

The area around Buccarumbi is susceptible to bushfires, particularly during dry periods. The risk is exacerbated by surrounding vegetation and prevailing winds.

Key drivers:

·Drier conditions
·Increased fuel load

increasing

Heat

40/100

Buccarumbi is likely to experience more frequent and intense heatwaves. This poses a risk to vulnerable populations and infrastructure.

Key drivers:

·Rising global temperatures
·Urban heat island effect

stable

Coastal

10/100

Buccarumbi is not directly exposed to coastal hazards.

stable

Wind

28/100

Moderate wind risk — East Coast Lows and gust fronts

stable

Storm

39/100

Moderate storm risk — severe thunderstorms and hail

stable

Social

21/100

Moderate social stability — mixed urban density

increasing

Energy

35/100

Moderate energy costs — climate-driven cooling demand

In-Depth Climate Risk Guides for Buccarumbi

Should I Buy

Property buying guide with climate risk assessment

Flood Risk

Flood zone mapping, historical events, and projections

Bushfire Risk

BAL assessment, vegetation proximity, and fire history

Climate Safety

Multi-hazard safety assessment to 2050

Storm Risk

Severe weather, hail, and wind risk analysis

Heat Risk

Extreme heat days, urban heat island, and cooling costs

Insurance Costs

Premium estimates and insurance availability

Investment Score

Climate-adjusted property investment analysis

Detailed Hazard Analysis

heat Risk

40/100

Buccarumbi is likely to experience more frequent and intense heatwaves. This poses a risk to vulnerable populations and infrastructure.

Primary Drivers

·Rising global temperatures
·Urban heat island effect

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

4.5

2050

5.0

Data source

flood Risk

60/100

Buccarumbi faces a moderate risk of flooding due to its proximity to waterways and low-lying areas. Intense rainfall events can lead to riverine and flash flooding.

Primary Drivers

·Increased rainfall intensity
·Changes in land use
·Aging infrastructure

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

6.5

2050

7.0

Data source

coastal Risk

10/100

Buccarumbi is not directly exposed to coastal hazards.

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

1.0

2050

1.0

Data source

bushfire Risk

70/100

The area around Buccarumbi is susceptible to bushfires, particularly during dry periods. The risk is exacerbated by surrounding vegetation and prevailing winds.

Primary Drivers

·Drier conditions
·Increased fuel load
·More frequent heatwaves

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

7.5

2050

8.0

Data source

What This Means for Property Owners

Insurance Outlook

Premiums are likely to increase due to the elevated risk of flooding and bushfires.

Price Impact

Properties in high-risk areas may experience a decrease in value.

Buyer Checklist

1.Check flood maps and bushfire prone area designations.
2.Assess the property's vulnerability to extreme weather events.
3.Obtain comprehensive insurance coverage.
4.Consider the long-term climate risks when making a purchase decision.

Local Climate Evidence

Flood Evidence

Nearest Waterway: Nymboida River
Elevation Range: 200-300m
Flood Zone: Likely

Bushfire Evidence

Distance to Bushland: Adjacent
Planning Overlay: RFS Bush Fire Prone Land
Bushfire Prone Area: Yes

Heat Evidence

Avg January Max Temp: 32°C
Heat Stress Days/Year: 3 days

Coastal Evidence

Distance to Coast: 150 km
Sea Level Rise Exposure: None
Erosion Risk: None

Historical Climate Events

2019

bushfireMajor

The 2019 bushfires caused significant damage to properties and infrastructure in the region.

Source

2013

floodModerate

Heavy rainfall led to flooding of the Nymboida River, impacting low-lying areas of Buccarumbi.

Source

2017

heatwaveModerate

A prolonged heatwave resulted in increased hospital admissions and strain on infrastructure.

Source

Climate Outlook to 2050

Projections based on CSIRO and BOM climate modelling. Scenario: RCP8.5

Hazard	Today	2030	2050
flood	60	6.5(+0.5)	7.0(+1.0)
bushfire	70	7.5(+0.5)	8.0(+1.0)
heat	40	4.5(+0.5)	5.0(+1.0)
coastal	10	1.0	1.0

By 2030, Buccarumbi is projected to experience a moderate increase in overall climate risk, with notable increases in flood, bushfire, and heatwave risks. Adaptation measures are needed to mitigate these impacts.

CSIRO Climate Projections

Adaptation Recommendations

Upgrade Flood Defenses

Near-term

Invest in infrastructure to mitigate flood risks, such as levees and improved drainage systems.

Est. cost: High

Learn more

Implement Bushfire Management Plans

Immediate

Develop and implement comprehensive bushfire management plans, including controlled burns and community education programs.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Enhance Heatwave Preparedness

Near-term

Establish cooling centers and implement public awareness campaigns to protect vulnerable populations during heatwaves.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

Promote Water Conservation

Long-term

Encourage water conservation measures to reduce water stress during droughts and heatwaves.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

About Buccarumbi's Climate Risk Profile

Buccarumbi, NSW, is identified as a location facing a number of climate-related challenges. The primary concerns revolve around the increasing risks of flooding, bushfires, and heatwaves, all exacerbated by the changing climate.

The risk of flooding is significant due to the suburb's proximity to waterways and low-lying areas. Intense rainfall events can lead to both riverine and flash flooding, impacting properties and infrastructure. Climate projections suggest that rainfall intensity will increase, further elevating this risk.

Bushfire risk is also a major concern, particularly during the dry season. The surrounding vegetation provides ample fuel, and prevailing winds can quickly spread fires. Drier conditions and more frequent heatwaves are expected to worsen the bushfire threat in the future.

Heatwaves are becoming more frequent and intense, posing a risk to vulnerable populations, such as the elderly and those with pre-existing health conditions. The urban environment can also amplify the effects of heatwaves, creating an urban heat island effect.

While coastal risks are minimal, the combined impact of flooding, bushfires, and heatwaves necessitates proactive adaptation measures to protect the community and its assets.

Data sources: BOM · CSIRO · NSW RFS · Clarence Valley Council

Local Government Resources

Clarence Valley Council

Climate Strategy Flood Maps Emergency Services

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the main climate risks facing Buccarumbi?

Buccarumbi faces increasing risks from flooding, bushfires, and heatwaves due to climate change. These risks are expected to worsen in the future.

How will climate change affect property values in Buccarumbi?

Properties in high-risk areas may experience a decrease in value due to the increased risk of flooding and bushfires. Insurance premiums are also likely to increase.

What can residents do to prepare for climate change?

Residents can prepare by checking flood maps and bushfire prone area designations, assessing their property's vulnerability, obtaining comprehensive insurance coverage, and considering the long-term climate risks when making property decisions.

What is the council doing to address climate change?

The Clarence Valley Council is developing and implementing climate strategies to mitigate and adapt to the impacts of climate change. These strategies include upgrading flood defenses, implementing bushfire management plans, and enhancing heatwave preparedness.

Where can I find more information about climate risks in Buccarumbi?

You can find more information on the Clarence Valley Council website, the NSW Rural Fire Service website, and the Bureau of Meteorology website.

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