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Climate Risk in Burrell Creek, New South Wales

Burrell Creek, New South Wales
Medium Risk
Updated May 2026

Burrell Creek faces increasing risks from flooding and heatwaves due to climate change. The suburb also has a moderate bushfire risk. Residents should prepare for more extreme weather events in the future.

Overall Risk Score

58/100
Medium

Confidence: Medium

Hazard Breakdown

Flood
6.5
Bushfire
4.2
Heat
7.1
Coastal
1.5

Climate Hazard Breakdown for Burrell Creek

increasing

Flood

65/100

Burrell Creek is located near waterways and low-lying areas, making it susceptible to flooding. Increased rainfall intensity could exacerbate flood risks.

Key drivers:

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Proximity to waterways
increasing

Bushfire

42/100

The area around Burrell Creek has some bushland, posing a moderate bushfire risk. Drier conditions and higher temperatures could increase the frequency and intensity of bushfires.

Key drivers:

  • ·Drier conditions
  • ·Higher temperatures
increasing

Heat

71/100

Burrell Creek is likely to experience more frequent and intense heatwaves. Higher average temperatures can pose health risks, especially for vulnerable populations.

Key drivers:

  • ·Rising average temperatures
  • ·Increased frequency of heatwaves
stable

Coastal

15/100

Burrell Creek is not directly on the coast, so coastal risks are low. Sea level rise and coastal erosion are not major concerns for this suburb.

Key drivers:

  • ·Distance from the coast
stable

Wind

28/100

Moderate wind risk — East Coast Lows and gust fronts

stable

Storm

39/100

Moderate storm risk — severe thunderstorms and hail

stable

Social

21/100

Moderate social stability — mixed urban density

increasing

Energy

35/100

Moderate energy costs — climate-driven cooling demand

In-Depth Climate Risk Guides for Burrell Creek

Should I Buy

Property buying guide with climate risk assessment

Flood Risk

Flood zone mapping, historical events, and projections

Bushfire Risk

BAL assessment, vegetation proximity, and fire history

Climate Safety

Multi-hazard safety assessment to 2050

Storm Risk

Severe weather, hail, and wind risk analysis

Heat Risk

Extreme heat days, urban heat island, and cooling costs

Insurance Costs

Premium estimates and insurance availability

Investment Score

Climate-adjusted property investment analysis

Detailed Hazard Analysis

heat Risk

71/100

Burrell Creek is likely to experience more frequent and intense heatwaves. Higher average temperatures can pose health risks, especially for vulnerable populations.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Rising average temperatures
  • ·Increased frequency of heatwaves

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

7.6

2050

8.1

Data source

flood Risk

65/100

Burrell Creek is located near waterways and low-lying areas, making it susceptible to flooding. Increased rainfall intensity could exacerbate flood risks.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Proximity to waterways
  • ·Low-lying areas

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

7.0

2050

7.5

Data source

coastal Risk

15/100

Burrell Creek is not directly on the coast, so coastal risks are low. Sea level rise and coastal erosion are not major concerns for this suburb.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Distance from the coast

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

1.5

2050

1.5

Data source

bushfire Risk

42/100

The area around Burrell Creek has some bushland, posing a moderate bushfire risk. Drier conditions and higher temperatures could increase the frequency and intensity of bushfires.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Drier conditions
  • ·Higher temperatures
  • ·Proximity to bushland

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

4.7

2050

5.2

Data source

What This Means for Property Owners

Insurance Outlook

Insurance premiums may increase due to flood and bushfire risks.

Price Impact

Properties in flood-prone areas may experience price reductions.

Buyer Checklist

  • 1.Check flood maps and historical flood data.
  • 2.Assess bushfire risk and prepare a bushfire survival plan.
  • 3.Ensure adequate insurance coverage for flood and bushfire risks.
  • 4.Consider the potential impact of climate change on property value.

Local Climate Evidence

Flood Evidence

Nearest Waterway
Burrell Creek
Elevation Range
5-20 meters
Flood Zone
Areas near the creek are prone to flooding

Historical flood data indicates that properties close to the creek have been impacted in the past.

View council flood map

Bushfire Evidence

Distance to Bushland
Within 1km of bushland
Planning Overlay
Check NSW RFS website for bushfire prone areas
Bushfire Prone Area
Yes

The western side of the suburb borders a significant area of bushland, increasing bushfire risk.

Heat Evidence

Avg January Max Temp
31.5°C
Heat Stress Days/Year
3 days

Average maximum temperatures in January are expected to increase in the coming years.

Coastal Evidence

Distance to Coast
25 km
Sea Level Rise Exposure
Low
Erosion Risk
Low

Historical Climate Events

2013
floodModerate

Significant flooding occurred in the region, impacting low-lying areas near Burrell Creek.

Source
2019
bushfireModerate

Bushfires in the region caused smoky conditions and some property damage near Burrell Creek.

Source
2017
stormMinor

A severe storm caused localized flooding and power outages in Burrell Creek.

Source
2020
heatwaveModerate

A prolonged heatwave affected the region, with temperatures exceeding 40 degrees Celsius for several days.

Source

Climate Outlook to 2050

Projections based on CSIRO and BOM climate modelling. Scenario: RCP8.5

HazardToday20302050
flood657.0(+0.5)7.5(+1.0)
bushfire424.7(+0.5)5.2(+1.0)
heat717.6(+0.5)8.1(+1.0)
coastal151.51.5

By 2030, Burrell Creek is projected to experience a moderate increase in overall climate risk, with notable increases in flood, bushfire, and heat risks.

CSIRO Climate Projections

Adaptation Recommendations

Improve Flood Defenses

Near-term

Construct levees and improve drainage systems to reduce flood risk.

Est. cost: High

Learn more

Bushfire Preparedness

Immediate

Implement bushfire mitigation strategies, such as clearing vegetation around properties and creating firebreaks.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Heatwave Action Plan

Near-term

Develop a heatwave action plan to protect vulnerable populations during extreme heat events.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

Community Awareness Programs

Long-term

Conduct community awareness programs to educate residents about climate change risks and adaptation strategies.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

About Burrell Creek's Climate Risk Profile

Burrell Creek, located in New South Wales, is projected to experience a range of climate change impacts. The primary concerns are increased flooding due to more intense rainfall, and more frequent and severe heatwaves. The suburb also faces a moderate risk of bushfires, which could be exacerbated by drier conditions and higher temperatures.

Flooding is a significant concern for Burrell Creek due to its proximity to waterways and low-lying areas. Climate change is expected to increase rainfall intensity, leading to more frequent and severe flooding events. Residents should be aware of flood risks and take steps to protect their properties.

Heatwaves are also a growing threat to Burrell Creek. As average temperatures rise, the suburb is likely to experience more frequent and intense heatwaves, which can pose health risks, especially for vulnerable populations. It is important for residents to stay cool and hydrated during heatwaves.

Bushfire risk is moderate in Burrell Creek due to the presence of nearby bushland. Drier conditions and higher temperatures could increase the frequency and intensity of bushfires, posing a threat to homes and properties. Residents should be prepared for bushfires and have a plan in place.

While coastal risks are low due to the suburb's distance from the coast, the overall climate risk for Burrell Creek is increasing. Residents should take steps to adapt to the changing climate and prepare for more extreme weather events in the future.

Data sources: BOM · CSIRO · NSW RFS · MidCoast Council

Local Government Resources

MidCoast Council

Climate StrategyFlood MapsEmergency Services

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the main climate change risks for Burrell Creek?

The main climate change risks for Burrell Creek are increased flooding, more frequent and intense heatwaves, and a moderate risk of bushfires.

How will climate change affect property values in Burrell Creek?

Properties in flood-prone areas may experience price reductions due to increased flood risk. Bushfire risk may also impact property values.

What can I do to prepare for flooding in Burrell Creek?

Check flood maps and historical flood data, ensure adequate insurance coverage, and take steps to protect your property from flood damage.

How can I protect my home from bushfires in Burrell Creek?

Clear vegetation around your property, create firebreaks, and develop a bushfire survival plan.

What resources are available to help me adapt to climate change in Burrell Creek?

MidCoast Council, NSW RFS, and NSW Health provide resources and information to help residents adapt to climate change.

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