Climate Risk Assessment for Caragabal, NSW

Caragabal, New South Wales· Weddin Shire Council
Medium Risk
Updated May 2026

Caragabal is a rural town in New South Wales that faces moderate risks from flooding, bushfires, and heatwaves. Climate change is expected to exacerbate these risks in the future. Residents should take steps to prepare for these hazards.

Overall Risk Score

52/100
Medium

Confidence: Medium

Hazard Breakdown

Flood
6.5
Bushfire
4.8
Heat
5.8
Coastal
1.0

Climate Hazard Breakdown for Caragabal

increasing

Flood

65/100

Caragabal faces a moderate risk of flooding due to its location within the Lachlan River catchment. Intense rainfall events can lead to flash flooding and riverine flooding.

Key drivers:

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Changes in land use
stable

Bushfire

48/100

The area surrounding Caragabal has a moderate bushfire risk, particularly during hot and dry summer months. Grassfires are a common concern.

Key drivers:

  • ·Dry vegetation
  • ·High temperatures
increasing

Heat

58/100

Caragabal experiences hot summers with increasing frequency of heatwave events. This poses a risk to vulnerable populations.

Key drivers:

  • ·Rising global temperatures
  • ·Urban heat island effect
stable

Coastal

10/100

Caragabal is located inland and does not face any direct coastal risks.

stable

Wind

28/100

Moderate wind risk — East Coast Lows and gust fronts

stable

Storm

39/100

Moderate storm risk — severe thunderstorms and hail

stable

Social

21/100

Moderate social stability — mixed urban density

increasing

Energy

35/100

Moderate energy costs — climate-driven cooling demand

In-Depth Climate Risk Guides for Caragabal

Detailed Hazard Analysis

heat Risk

58/100

Caragabal experiences hot summers with increasing frequency of heatwave events. This poses a risk to vulnerable populations.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Rising global temperatures
  • ·Urban heat island effect

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

6.2

2050

6.8

Data source

flood Risk

65/100

Caragabal faces a moderate risk of flooding due to its location within the Lachlan River catchment. Intense rainfall events can lead to flash flooding and riverine flooding.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Changes in land use
  • ·Aging infrastructure

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

7.0

2050

7.5

Data source

coastal Risk

10/100

Caragabal is located inland and does not face any direct coastal risks.

Projections (N/A)

2030

1.0

2050

1.0

Data source

bushfire Risk

48/100

The area surrounding Caragabal has a moderate bushfire risk, particularly during hot and dry summer months. Grassfires are a common concern.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Dry vegetation
  • ·High temperatures
  • ·Strong winds

Projections (RCP4.5)

2030

5.0

2050

5.2

Data source

What This Means for Property Owners

Insurance Outlook

Insurance premiums may increase due to the increasing risk of flooding and bushfires.

Price Impact

Properties in areas prone to flooding or bushfires may experience a decrease in value.

Buyer Checklist

  • 1.Check flood maps and bushfire prone area designations.
  • 2.Assess the property's vulnerability to flooding and bushfires.
  • 3.Obtain insurance quotes and understand policy coverage.
  • 4.Consider the potential impact of climate change on property value.

Local Climate Evidence

Flood Evidence

Nearest Waterway
Lachlan River
Elevation Range
280-320m
Flood Zone
Areas adjacent to the Lachlan River are designated as flood zones.

Historical flood data indicates that Caragabal has experienced several moderate to major flood events in the past.

View council flood map

Bushfire Evidence

Distance to Bushland
Located near significant areas of native vegetation.
Planning Overlay
Refer to NSW RFS for bushfire prone area mapping.
Bushfire Prone Area
Yes

The area is prone to grassfires due to dry conditions and abundant vegetation.

Heat Evidence

Avg January Max Temp
32.5°C
Heat Stress Days/Year
3 days

Heatwaves are becoming more frequent and intense, posing a risk to vulnerable populations.

Coastal Evidence

Distance to Coast
350 km
Sea Level Rise Exposure
Not applicable.
Erosion Risk
Not applicable.

Historical Climate Events

2016
floodModerate

Moderate flooding occurred in the Lachlan River catchment, impacting Caragabal and surrounding areas.

Source
2019
bushfireModerate

Bushfires impacted areas near Caragabal, causing property damage and evacuations.

Source
2013
heatwaveModerate

A prolonged heatwave affected Caragabal, with temperatures exceeding 40 degrees Celsius for several days.

Source
2010
floodMajor

Significant flooding in the Lachlan River catchment caused widespread damage in Caragabal and surrounding areas.

Source

Climate Outlook to 2050

Projections based on CSIRO and BOM climate modelling. Scenario: RCP4.5

HazardToday20302050
flood656.9(+0.4)7.2(+0.7)
bushfire485.0(+0.2)5.2(+0.4)
heat586.3(+0.5)6.8(+1.0)
coastal101.01.0

Under a moderate emissions scenario, Caragabal is projected to experience a slight increase in overall climate risk, primarily driven by increased flooding and heatwave intensity.

CSIRO Climate Projections

Adaptation Recommendations

Develop a community flood plan

Near-term

Create a plan to prepare for and respond to flood events, including evacuation routes and emergency contacts.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

Implement bushfire mitigation measures

Near-term

Clear vegetation around properties, install firebreaks, and develop a bushfire survival plan.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Improve building energy efficiency

Long-term

Insulate homes, install energy-efficient appliances, and use passive cooling techniques to reduce energy consumption and heat stress.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Upgrade stormwater drainage infrastructure

Long-term

Improve the capacity of stormwater drains to handle increased rainfall intensity and reduce the risk of flooding.

Est. cost: High

Learn more

About Caragabal's Climate Risk Profile

Caragabal, located in the Weddin Shire of New South Wales, is a small rural community with a climate that is becoming increasingly challenging due to climate change.

The primary climate-related risks for Caragabal include flooding, bushfires, and heatwaves. The area is prone to flooding due to its location within the Lachlan River catchment, and intense rainfall events can cause significant damage to property and infrastructure. Bushfires are also a concern, particularly during the dry summer months, and can pose a threat to life and property.

Heatwaves are becoming more frequent and intense in Caragabal, which can have a significant impact on the health of vulnerable populations, such as the elderly and those with chronic health conditions. The increasing frequency of extreme weather events is placing a strain on local resources and infrastructure.

To mitigate these risks, it is important for residents and businesses to take steps to prepare for climate change. This includes developing emergency plans, investing in flood and fire protection measures, and taking steps to reduce their carbon footprint. The local council is also working to develop strategies to adapt to climate change and build a more resilient community.

Data sources: BOM · CSIRO · NSW RFS · Weddin Shire Council

Local Government Resources

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the main climate change risks for Caragabal?

The main climate change risks for Caragabal are flooding, bushfires, and heatwaves. These risks are expected to increase in the future due to climate change.

How can I prepare for flooding in Caragabal?

You can prepare for flooding by developing a flood plan, knowing your evacuation routes, and having an emergency kit ready.

What should I do during a heatwave in Caragabal?

During a heatwave, stay indoors in air-conditioned buildings, drink plenty of water, and avoid strenuous activity.

How can I protect my property from bushfires in Caragabal?

You can protect your property from bushfires by clearing vegetation around your home, installing firebreaks, and having a bushfire survival plan.

What is the local council doing to address climate change in Caragabal?

The Weddin Shire Council is developing strategies to adapt to climate change and build a more resilient community. This includes upgrading infrastructure and promoting sustainable practices.

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What A$69 could save you from

$7.2B
2022 insured disaster losses*
$300B+
climate risk to property by 2050*
30-120%
insurance premium increases in high-risk areas*

*Industry sources: ICA, APRA, RBA

Full report from A$69 · Australian addresses only · 8 hazard scores · Insurance trajectory · 2030 & 2050 projections