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Climate Risk Profile: Carramar, NSW

Carramar, New South Wales· 2163
Medium Risk
Updated May 2026

Carramar faces moderate risks from flooding and heatwaves, which are projected to increase with climate change. Bushfire risk is relatively low. Coastal risks are negligible.

Overall Risk Score

52/100
Medium

Confidence: Medium

Hazard Breakdown

Flood
6.5
Bushfire
3.0
Heat
6.0
Coastal
1.0

Climate Hazard Breakdown for Carramar

increasing

Flood

65/100

Carramar faces a moderate risk of flooding due to its proximity to waterways and relatively flat terrain. Increased rainfall intensity could exacerbate this risk.

Key drivers:

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Urban development
stable

Bushfire

30/100

Bushfire risk in Carramar is relatively low due to the urbanized nature of the suburb. However, surrounding bushland areas pose a potential threat during extreme weather conditions.

Key drivers:

  • ·Proximity to bushland
  • ·Dry vegetation
increasing

Heat

60/100

Carramar is likely to experience more frequent and intense heatwaves, posing a risk to vulnerable populations. Urban heat island effect may amplify these impacts.

Key drivers:

  • ·Climate change
  • ·Urban heat island effect
stable

Coastal

10/100

Carramar is not directly exposed to coastal hazards.

stable

Wind

28/100

Moderate wind risk — East Coast Lows and gust fronts

stable

Storm

39/100

Moderate storm risk — severe thunderstorms and hail

stable

Social

21/100

Moderate social stability — mixed urban density

increasing

Energy

35/100

Moderate energy costs — climate-driven cooling demand

In-Depth Climate Risk Guides for Carramar

Should I Buy

Property buying guide with climate risk assessment

Flood Risk

Flood zone mapping, historical events, and projections

Bushfire Risk

BAL assessment, vegetation proximity, and fire history

Climate Safety

Multi-hazard safety assessment to 2050

Storm Risk

Severe weather, hail, and wind risk analysis

Heat Risk

Extreme heat days, urban heat island, and cooling costs

Insurance Costs

Premium estimates and insurance availability

Investment Score

Climate-adjusted property investment analysis

Detailed Hazard Analysis

heat Risk

60/100

Carramar is likely to experience more frequent and intense heatwaves, posing a risk to vulnerable populations. Urban heat island effect may amplify these impacts.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Climate change
  • ·Urban heat island effect
  • ·Reduced green spaces

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

6.5

2050

7.0

Data source

flood Risk

65/100

Carramar faces a moderate risk of flooding due to its proximity to waterways and relatively flat terrain. Increased rainfall intensity could exacerbate this risk.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Urban development
  • ·Aging drainage infrastructure

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

7.0

2050

7.5

Data source

coastal Risk

10/100

Carramar is not directly exposed to coastal hazards.

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

1.0

2050

1.0

Data source

bushfire Risk

30/100

Bushfire risk in Carramar is relatively low due to the urbanized nature of the suburb. However, surrounding bushland areas pose a potential threat during extreme weather conditions.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Proximity to bushland
  • ·Dry vegetation
  • ·Extreme weather events

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

3.2

2050

3.5

Data source

What This Means for Property Owners

Insurance Outlook

Insurance premiums may increase due to flood risk.

Price Impact

Properties in flood-prone areas may experience a decrease in value.

Buyer Checklist

  • 1.Check flood maps and historical flood data.
  • 2.Assess the property's vulnerability to heatwaves.
  • 3.Consider the potential impact of climate change on insurance premiums.
  • 4.Review council planning regulations related to bushfire risk.

Local Climate Evidence

Flood Evidence

Nearest Waterway
Orphan School Creek
Elevation Range
10-20m
Flood Zone
Partially within a 1% AEP flood zone

Some areas of Carramar have experienced flooding in the past, particularly along Orphan School Creek.

View council flood map

Bushfire Evidence

Distance to Bushland
Within 2km of significant bushland
Planning Overlay
Some areas may be subject to bushfire prone land overlays
Bushfire Prone Area
Yes

Check with Fairfield City Council for specific bushfire prone land designations.

Heat Evidence

Avg January Max Temp
30.5°C
Heat Stress Days/Year
3 days

Western Sydney experiences some of the highest temperatures in the Sydney metropolitan area.

Coastal Evidence

Distance to Coast
30 km
Sea Level Rise Exposure
Not applicable
Erosion Risk
Not applicable

Historical Climate Events

2022
floodModerate

Heavy rainfall caused flooding in parts of Carramar, affecting some residential areas.

Source
2020
heatwaveModerate

Prolonged heatwave conditions affected Carramar, with temperatures exceeding 40 degrees Celsius for several days.

Source
2016
floodMinor

Localized flooding occurred in Carramar due to heavy rainfall.

Source
2013
heatwaveModerate

A significant heatwave impacted the region, placing stress on vulnerable residents.

Source

Climate Outlook to 2050

Projections based on CSIRO and BOM climate modelling. Scenario: RCP8.5

HazardToday20302050
flood657.0(+0.5)7.5(+1.0)
bushfire303.2(+0.2)3.5(+0.5)
heat606.8(+0.8)7.2(+1.2)
coastal101.01.0

By 2030, Carramar is projected to experience a moderate increase in overall climate risk, primarily driven by increased flooding and heatwave intensity.

CSIRO Climate Projections

Adaptation Recommendations

Improve Drainage Infrastructure

Near-term

Upgrade and maintain drainage systems to reduce the risk of flooding during heavy rainfall events.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Implement Heatwave Early Warning System

Immediate

Develop and implement a heatwave early warning system to alert residents of impending heatwaves and provide guidance on how to stay safe.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

Increase Green Spaces

Long-term

Increase the amount of green space in Carramar to help reduce the urban heat island effect and provide shade and cooling.

Est. cost: High

Learn more

Community Education Programs

Near-term

Run community education programs on climate risks and adaptation strategies.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

About Carramar's Climate Risk Profile

Carramar, NSW, is primarily threatened by flooding and heatwaves. The suburb's location near waterways makes it susceptible to inundation during heavy rainfall events. Climate change is expected to increase the frequency and intensity of these events, potentially leading to property damage and disruption to daily life.

Heatwaves are another significant concern for Carramar residents. As temperatures rise, vulnerable populations, such as the elderly and those with chronic health conditions, are at increased risk of heatstroke and other heat-related illnesses. The urban heat island effect can further exacerbate these impacts, particularly in areas with limited green spaces.

While bushfire risk is relatively low compared to other parts of NSW, Carramar is not entirely immune. Surrounding bushland areas could pose a threat during periods of extreme heat and dryness. It is important for residents to be aware of bushfire safety precautions and to maintain their properties to reduce the risk of fire.

Coastal hazards are not a significant concern for Carramar due to its inland location. However, the suburb may indirectly experience the impacts of climate change through disruptions to supply chains and other economic activities.

Data sources: BOM · CSIRO · NSW SES · NSW RFS · Fairfield City Council

Local Government Resources

Fairfield City Council

Climate StrategyFlood MapsEmergency Services

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the main climate change risks for Carramar?

The main climate change risks for Carramar are increased flooding and more frequent and intense heatwaves.

How will climate change affect property values in Carramar?

Properties in flood-prone areas may experience a decrease in value due to increased flood risk.

What can I do to protect my home from flooding?

You can take steps to protect your home from flooding by installing flood barriers, improving drainage around your property, and raising electrical appliances above flood level.

How can I stay safe during a heatwave?

During a heatwave, it is important to stay hydrated, stay cool, and avoid strenuous activity. Check on vulnerable neighbors and family members.

Where can I find more information about climate change risks in Carramar?

You can find more information about climate change risks in Carramar on the Fairfield City Council website and the NSW State Emergency Service website.

Get your property's risk report

This suburb assessment covers the area. For a precise address-level climate risk report for any specific property in Carramar, use our analysis tool.

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