Climate Risk Assessment: Carroll, NSW

Carroll, New South Wales
Medium Risk
Updated May 2026

Carroll faces increasing risks from flooding and heatwaves due to climate change. Bushfire risk is also a concern. Residents should prepare for more extreme weather events.

Overall Risk Score

55/100
Medium

Confidence: Medium

Hazard Breakdown

Flood
6.0
Bushfire
4.0
Heat
7.0
Coastal
1.0

Climate Hazard Breakdown for Carroll

increasing

Flood

60/100

Carroll faces a moderate risk of flooding, primarily from heavy rainfall events impacting local waterways. The risk is expected to increase due to climate change.

Key drivers:

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Changes in river flow
increasing

Bushfire

40/100

The area around Carroll has a moderate bushfire risk due to surrounding vegetation. Hot, dry conditions exacerbate this risk, and climate change is projected to worsen these conditions.

Key drivers:

  • ·Increased temperatures
  • ·Drier conditions
increasing

Heat

70/100

Carroll is likely to experience more frequent and intense heatwaves. This poses a significant risk to vulnerable populations and infrastructure.

Key drivers:

  • ·Rising average temperatures
  • ·Increased frequency of heatwaves
stable

Coastal

10/100

Carroll is not directly exposed to coastal risks.

stable

Wind

28/100

Moderate wind risk — East Coast Lows and gust fronts

stable

Storm

39/100

Moderate storm risk — severe thunderstorms and hail

stable

Social

21/100

Moderate social stability — mixed urban density

increasing

Energy

35/100

Moderate energy costs — climate-driven cooling demand

In-Depth Climate Risk Guides for Carroll

Detailed Hazard Analysis

heat Risk

70/100

Carroll is likely to experience more frequent and intense heatwaves. This poses a significant risk to vulnerable populations and infrastructure.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Rising average temperatures
  • ·Increased frequency of heatwaves
  • ·Urban heat island effect

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

7.5

2050

8.0

Data source

flood Risk

60/100

Carroll faces a moderate risk of flooding, primarily from heavy rainfall events impacting local waterways. The risk is expected to increase due to climate change.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Changes in river flow
  • ·Urban development

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

6.5

2050

7.0

Data source

coastal Risk

10/100

Carroll is not directly exposed to coastal risks.

Projections (N/A)

2030

1.0

2050

1.0

bushfire Risk

40/100

The area around Carroll has a moderate bushfire risk due to surrounding vegetation. Hot, dry conditions exacerbate this risk, and climate change is projected to worsen these conditions.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased temperatures
  • ·Drier conditions
  • ·Fuel load

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

4.5

2050

5.0

Data source

What This Means for Property Owners

Insurance Outlook

Insurance premiums are likely to increase due to the rising risk of flooding and bushfires.

Price Impact

Properties in flood-prone areas may experience a decrease in value.

Buyer Checklist

  • 1.Check flood maps and historical flood data.
  • 2.Assess the property's bushfire risk.
  • 3.Ensure the property is adequately insured.
  • 4.Consider the property's energy efficiency.

Local Climate Evidence

Flood Evidence

Nearest Waterway
Unnamed Creek
Elevation Range
250-270m
Flood Zone
Unknown

Local creeks and drainage systems may be overwhelmed during heavy rainfall events.

View council flood map

Bushfire Evidence

Distance to Bushland
Adjacent
Planning Overlay
NSW RFS Bush Fire Prone Land Map
Bushfire Prone Area
Yes

The area is designated as bushfire prone, requiring specific building standards for new constructions.

Heat Evidence

Avg January Max Temp
34.5°C
Heat Stress Days/Year
5 days

Heatwaves are becoming more frequent and intense, posing a risk to vulnerable residents.

Coastal Evidence

Distance to Coast
400 km
Sea Level Rise Exposure
Not Applicable
Erosion Risk
Not Applicable

Historical Climate Events

2011
floodModerate

Significant flooding occurred in the region, impacting local infrastructure and agriculture.

Source
2013
heatwaveModerate

A prolonged heatwave affected the region, with temperatures exceeding 40 degrees Celsius for several days.

Source
2019
droughtMajor

Severe drought conditions impacted agricultural production and water resources.

Source

Climate Outlook to 2050

Projections based on CSIRO and BOM climate modelling. Scenario: RCP8.5

HazardToday20302050
flood606.5(+0.5)7.0(+1.0)
bushfire404.3(+0.3)4.5(+0.5)
heat707.7(+0.7)8.2(+1.2)
coastal101.01.0

By 2030, Carroll is projected to experience a notable increase in heatwave frequency and intensity, along with a heightened risk of flooding due to more intense rainfall events. Bushfire risk will also increase.

CSIRO Climate Projections

Adaptation Recommendations

Improve Flood Defenses

Near-term

Invest in infrastructure to mitigate flood risks, such as improved drainage systems and levees.

Est. cost: High

Learn more

Develop a Heat Action Plan

Immediate

Implement a plan to protect vulnerable populations during heatwaves, including cooling centers and public awareness campaigns.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Enhance Bushfire Preparedness

Near-term

Implement measures to reduce bushfire risk, such as fuel reduction programs and community education.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Promote Water Conservation

Long-term

Encourage water conservation measures to address potential water shortages during droughts.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

About Carroll's Climate Risk Profile

Carroll, NSW, is situated in a region that is becoming increasingly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. The primary concerns for Carroll are increased flooding, more frequent and intense heatwaves, and a heightened risk of bushfires.

Flooding is a significant threat due to the potential for heavy rainfall events. Climate change is expected to increase the intensity of these events, leading to more frequent and severe flooding. This can impact property, infrastructure, and community safety.

Heatwaves are also a growing concern. Rising average temperatures and more frequent heatwaves can pose a serious risk to vulnerable populations, such as the elderly and those with pre-existing health conditions. Infrastructure can also be affected, with potential disruptions to power and water supplies.

Bushfire risk is another factor to consider. Hotter, drier conditions can increase the likelihood of bushfires, particularly in areas with significant vegetation. Residents should be aware of the risks and take steps to prepare their properties.

While Carroll is not directly exposed to coastal risks, the broader impacts of climate change, such as economic disruption and displacement of populations, could indirectly affect the community.

Data sources: BOM · CSIRO · NSW RFS · NSW SES

Local Government Resources

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the main climate change risks for Carroll?

The main risks are increased flooding, more frequent and intense heatwaves, and a higher risk of bushfires.

How will climate change affect property values in Carroll?

Properties in flood-prone areas may experience a decrease in value. Increased insurance premiums are also likely.

What can I do to prepare for heatwaves?

Stay hydrated, seek air-conditioned environments, and check on vulnerable neighbors.

How can I protect my property from bushfires?

Clear vegetation around your home, maintain your roof and gutters, and have a bushfire survival plan.

Where can I find more information about flood risks in Carroll?

Contact the local council or the NSW State Emergency Service for flood maps and information.

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What A$69 could save you from

$7.2B
2022 insured disaster losses*
$300B+
climate risk to property by 2050*
30-120%
insurance premium increases in high-risk areas*

*Industry sources: ICA, APRA, RBA

Full report from A$69 · Australian addresses only · 8 hazard scores · Insurance trajectory · 2030 & 2050 projections