Climate Risk Profile: Carss Park, NSW

Carss Park, New South Wales· Georges River· 2221
Medium Risk
Updated May 2026

Carss Park faces moderate climate risks, primarily from flooding, heatwaves, and coastal hazards. Climate change is expected to exacerbate these risks in the future. Residents should take steps to prepare for these potential impacts.

Overall Risk Score

55/100
Medium

Confidence: Medium

Hazard Breakdown

Flood
7.0
Bushfire
3.0
Heat
6.0
Coastal
6.0

Climate Hazard Breakdown for Carss Park

increasing

Flood

70/100

Carss Park is located near the Georges River and Botany Bay, making it susceptible to flooding from heavy rainfall and storm surges. Climate change is expected to increase the frequency and intensity of extreme rainfall events, exacerbating flood risk.

Key drivers:

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Sea level rise
increasing

Bushfire

30/100

While Carss Park is primarily a residential area, some properties are located near bushland, posing a moderate bushfire risk. Hotter and drier conditions due to climate change are expected to increase the likelihood of bushfires.

Key drivers:

  • ·Increased temperatures
  • ·Drier conditions
increasing

Heat

60/100

Carss Park is expected to experience more frequent and intense heatwaves due to climate change. This can pose a risk to vulnerable populations, such as the elderly and those with chronic health conditions.

Key drivers:

  • ·Increased temperatures
  • ·Urban heat island effect
increasing

Coastal

60/100

Located on the Georges River near Botany Bay, Carss Park faces coastal risks from sea level rise and storm surges. These factors can lead to increased erosion and inundation of low-lying areas.

Key drivers:

  • ·Sea level rise
  • ·Storm surges
stable

Wind

28/100

Moderate wind risk — East Coast Lows and gust fronts

stable

Storm

39/100

Moderate storm risk — severe thunderstorms and hail

stable

Social

21/100

Moderate social stability — mixed urban density

increasing

Energy

35/100

Moderate energy costs — climate-driven cooling demand

In-Depth Climate Risk Guides for Carss Park

Detailed Hazard Analysis

heat Risk

60/100

Carss Park is expected to experience more frequent and intense heatwaves due to climate change. This can pose a risk to vulnerable populations, such as the elderly and those with chronic health conditions.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased temperatures
  • ·Urban heat island effect

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

6.5

2050

7.0

Data source

flood Risk

70/100

Carss Park is located near the Georges River and Botany Bay, making it susceptible to flooding from heavy rainfall and storm surges. Climate change is expected to increase the frequency and intensity of extreme rainfall events, exacerbating flood risk.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Sea level rise
  • ·Storm surges

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

7.5

2050

8.0

Data source

coastal Risk

60/100

Located on the Georges River near Botany Bay, Carss Park faces coastal risks from sea level rise and storm surges. These factors can lead to increased erosion and inundation of low-lying areas.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Sea level rise
  • ·Storm surges
  • ·Erosion

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

6.5

2050

7.0

Data source

bushfire Risk

30/100

While Carss Park is primarily a residential area, some properties are located near bushland, posing a moderate bushfire risk. Hotter and drier conditions due to climate change are expected to increase the likelihood of bushfires.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased temperatures
  • ·Drier conditions
  • ·Increased fuel load

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

3.5

2050

4.0

Data source

What This Means for Property Owners

Insurance Outlook

Insurance premiums may increase in the future due to increased climate risks.

Price Impact

Properties in flood-prone areas may experience a decrease in value.

Buyer Checklist

  • 1.Check flood maps and historical flood data.
  • 2.Assess bushfire risk and defensible space.
  • 3.Consider the potential impacts of sea level rise.
  • 4.Inquire about insurance costs and coverage.

Local Climate Evidence

Flood Evidence

Nearest Waterway
Georges River
Elevation Range
2-10 meters
Flood Zone
Areas adjacent to the Georges River are designated as flood zones.

Historical flood events have impacted properties along the Georges River in Carss Park.

View council flood map

Bushfire Evidence

Distance to Bushland
Some properties are adjacent to bushland reserves.
Planning Overlay
Check NSW RFS website for bushfire prone land overlay.
Bushfire Prone Area
Yes

Residents should maintain a defensible space around their homes by clearing vegetation.

Heat Evidence

Avg January Max Temp
29.5°C
Heat Stress Days/Year
3 days

The urban heat island effect can increase temperatures in built-up areas of Carss Park.

Coastal Evidence

Distance to Coast
1 km
Sea Level Rise Exposure
Low-lying areas near the Georges River are susceptible to sea level rise.
Erosion Risk
Some areas along the riverbank are at risk of erosion.

Historical Climate Events

1990
floodModerate

Major flooding along the Georges River impacted low-lying areas of Carss Park.

Source
1994
bushfireMinor

Bushfires in nearby areas caused smoke haze and increased fire danger in Carss Park.

Source
2011
floodModerate

Heavy rainfall caused flash flooding in some parts of Carss Park.

Source
2013
heatwaveModerate

Prolonged heatwave conditions put stress on vulnerable residents.

Source
2020
floodModerate

Heavy rainfall and king tides caused flooding in low-lying areas along the Georges River.

Source

Climate Outlook to 2050

Projections based on CSIRO and BOM climate modelling. Scenario: RCP4.5

HazardToday2030205020302050
flood707.5(+0.5)8.0(+1.0)7.7(+0.7)8.5(+1.5)
bushfire303.2(+0.2)3.4(+0.4)3.3(+0.3)3.6(+0.6)
heat606.4(+0.4)6.7(+0.7)6.6(+0.6)7.0(+1.0)
coastal606.3(+0.3)6.5(+0.5)6.4(+0.4)6.8(+0.8)

Under a moderate emissions scenario, Carss Park is projected to experience a slight increase in overall climate risk, with notable increases in flood and heat risks.

CSIRO Climate Projections

Adaptation Recommendations

Improve Flood Defenses

Near-term

Invest in infrastructure to protect properties from flooding, such as levees, flood barriers, and improved drainage systems.

Est. cost: High

Learn more

Enhance Bushfire Preparedness

Near-term

Implement bushfire management strategies, including vegetation clearing, fire breaks, and community education programs.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Develop Heatwave Response Plan

Immediate

Establish a heatwave response plan to protect vulnerable populations, including cooling centers and public awareness campaigns.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

Implement Coastal Protection Measures

Long-term

Implement coastal protection measures to mitigate the impacts of sea level rise and storm surges, such as seawalls and beach nourishment.

Est. cost: Very High

Learn more

Upgrade Building Codes

Near-term

Update building codes to ensure new construction is resilient to climate change impacts, including flooding, bushfires, and heatwaves.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

About Carss Park's Climate Risk Profile

Carss Park, located in the Georges River Council area, is a suburb with a mix of residential areas and proximity to waterways and bushland. This unique setting makes it vulnerable to a range of climate-related hazards.

Flooding is a significant concern for Carss Park due to its location near the Georges River and Botany Bay. Increased rainfall intensity and rising sea levels are expected to worsen flood risks in the coming decades. Residents should be aware of flood warnings and have a plan in place to protect their property.

Bushfire risk is moderate, particularly for properties bordering bushland areas. Hotter and drier conditions increase the likelihood of bushfires. Maintaining defensible space around homes and staying informed about fire danger ratings are crucial for mitigating this risk.

Heatwaves are becoming more frequent and intense, posing a health risk to vulnerable populations. Taking precautions during heatwaves, such as staying hydrated and seeking air-conditioned environments, is essential. The urban heat island effect can further amplify temperatures in built-up areas.

Coastal hazards, including sea level rise and storm surges, threaten low-lying areas of Carss Park. These factors can lead to erosion and inundation, impacting property values and infrastructure. Long-term planning and adaptation measures are necessary to address these challenges.

Data sources: BOM · CSIRO · NSW SES · Georges River Council

Local Government Resources

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the main climate change risks for Carss Park?

Carss Park faces risks from flooding, bushfires, heatwaves, and coastal hazards, all of which are expected to worsen with climate change.

How will sea level rise affect Carss Park?

Sea level rise can lead to increased erosion and inundation of low-lying areas along the Georges River, impacting properties and infrastructure.

What can I do to prepare for heatwaves in Carss Park?

Stay hydrated, seek air-conditioned environments, and check on vulnerable neighbors during heatwaves.

Is my property in Carss Park at risk of flooding?

Check the Georges River Council flood maps to determine if your property is located in a flood-prone area.

How can I protect my home from bushfires in Carss Park?

Maintain a defensible space around your home by clearing vegetation and staying informed about fire danger ratings.

Where can I find more information about climate change impacts in Carss Park?

Consult the Georges River Council website, the NSW Department of Planning and Environment, and the CSIRO for more information.

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What A$69 could save you from

$7.2B
2022 insured disaster losses*
$300B+
climate risk to property by 2050*
30-120%
insurance premium increases in high-risk areas*

*Industry sources: ICA, APRA, RBA

Full report from A$69 · Australian addresses only · 8 hazard scores · Insurance trajectory · 2030 & 2050 projections