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Climate Risk Profile: Castle Rock, NSW

Castle Rock, New South Wales
Medium Risk
Updated May 2026

Castle Rock faces moderate risks from flooding, bushfires, and heatwaves. Climate change is expected to increase the frequency and intensity of these events, particularly heatwaves.

Overall Risk Score

58/100
Medium

Confidence: Medium

Hazard Breakdown

Flood
4.2
Bushfire
6.5
Heat
7.0
Coastal
1.0

Climate Hazard Breakdown for Castle Rock

increasing

Flood

42/100

Castle Rock faces a moderate risk of flooding, primarily from heavy rainfall events and potential stormwater runoff. The risk is influenced by local topography and drainage infrastructure.

Key drivers:

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Urban development
stable

Bushfire

65/100

The bushfire risk in Castle Rock is relatively high due to its proximity to bushland areas. Hot, dry conditions and strong winds can exacerbate the risk during the bushfire season.

Key drivers:

  • ·Dry vegetation
  • ·High temperatures
increasing

Heat

70/100

Castle Rock is likely to experience more frequent and intense heatwaves in the future. This poses a risk to vulnerable populations, such as the elderly and those with chronic health conditions.

Key drivers:

  • ·Rising global temperatures
  • ·Urban heat island effect
stable

Coastal

10/100

As Castle Rock is not located near the coast, the risk of coastal hazards such as sea level rise and coastal erosion is very low.

Key drivers:

  • ·Distance from coast
stable

Wind

28/100

Moderate wind risk — East Coast Lows and gust fronts

stable

Storm

39/100

Moderate storm risk — severe thunderstorms and hail

stable

Social

21/100

Moderate social stability — mixed urban density

increasing

Energy

35/100

Moderate energy costs — climate-driven cooling demand

In-Depth Climate Risk Guides for Castle Rock

Should I Buy

Property buying guide with climate risk assessment

Flood Risk

Flood zone mapping, historical events, and projections

Bushfire Risk

BAL assessment, vegetation proximity, and fire history

Climate Safety

Multi-hazard safety assessment to 2050

Storm Risk

Severe weather, hail, and wind risk analysis

Heat Risk

Extreme heat days, urban heat island, and cooling costs

Insurance Costs

Premium estimates and insurance availability

Investment Score

Climate-adjusted property investment analysis

Detailed Hazard Analysis

heat Risk

70/100

Castle Rock is likely to experience more frequent and intense heatwaves in the future. This poses a risk to vulnerable populations, such as the elderly and those with chronic health conditions.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Rising global temperatures
  • ·Urban heat island effect

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

7.5

2050

8.0

Data source

flood Risk

42/100

Castle Rock faces a moderate risk of flooding, primarily from heavy rainfall events and potential stormwater runoff. The risk is influenced by local topography and drainage infrastructure.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Urban development
  • ·Inadequate drainage

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

4.5

2050

4.8

Data source

coastal Risk

10/100

As Castle Rock is not located near the coast, the risk of coastal hazards such as sea level rise and coastal erosion is very low.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Distance from coast

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

1.0

2050

1.0

Data source

bushfire Risk

65/100

The bushfire risk in Castle Rock is relatively high due to its proximity to bushland areas. Hot, dry conditions and strong winds can exacerbate the risk during the bushfire season.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Dry vegetation
  • ·High temperatures
  • ·Strong winds

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

6.5

2050

6.6

Data source

What This Means for Property Owners

Insurance Outlook

Premiums may increase due to climate-related risks.

Price Impact

Properties in high-risk areas may experience price fluctuations.

Buyer Checklist

  • 1.Check flood maps and bushfire prone area designations.
  • 2.Assess the property's vulnerability to heatwaves.
  • 3.Inquire about past flood or bushfire events in the area.
  • 4.Review insurance options and potential premium increases.

Local Climate Evidence

Flood Evidence

Nearest Waterway
Local creeks and stormwater drains
Elevation Range
Varies across the suburb
Flood Zone
Potentially affected areas near creeks

Specific flood studies may be available from the local council.

View council flood map

Bushfire Evidence

Distance to Bushland
Adjacent to bushland reserves
Planning Overlay
Check NSW RFS website for current bushfire prone area maps
Bushfire Prone Area
Yes

Residents should maintain firebreaks and clear vegetation around their homes.

Heat Evidence

Avg January Max Temp
31.5°C
Heat Stress Days/Year
3 days

Urban areas may experience higher temperatures due to the urban heat island effect.

Coastal Evidence

Distance to Coast
50 km
Sea Level Rise Exposure
Not applicable
Erosion Risk
Not applicable

Historical Climate Events

2011
floodModerate

Heavy rainfall caused localized flooding in low-lying areas of the region.

Source
2013
bushfireModerate

Bushfires impacted areas near Castle Rock, leading to evacuations and property damage.

Source
2017
heatwaveMajor

A prolonged heatwave resulted in record-breaking temperatures and increased demand on emergency services.

Source
2020
bushfireMajor

The Black Summer bushfires had a significant impact on the region, with widespread smoke and air quality issues.

Source

Climate Outlook to 2050

Projections based on CSIRO and BOM climate modelling. Scenario: RCP8.5

HazardToday20302050
flood424.5(+0.3)4.7(+0.5)
bushfire656.6(+0.1)6.7(+0.2)
heat708.0(+1.0)9.0(+2.0)
coastal101.01.0

By 2030, Castle Rock is projected to experience a notable increase in heatwave intensity and frequency, with a smaller increase in flood risk. Bushfire risk remains relatively stable. Coastal risks remain negligible.

CSIRO Climate Projections

Adaptation Recommendations

Improve stormwater drainage infrastructure

Near-term

Upgrade drainage systems to handle increased rainfall intensity and reduce flood risk.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Implement bushfire management strategies

Immediate

Conduct regular hazard reduction burns and maintain firebreaks to reduce bushfire risk.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

Develop a heatwave response plan

Near-term

Establish cooling centers and provide support to vulnerable populations during heatwaves.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

Promote water conservation measures

Long-term

Encourage residents to conserve water and reduce demand on water resources during droughts.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

Community education programs

Near-term

Raise awareness about climate risks and adaptation measures through community workshops and information campaigns.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

About Castle Rock's Climate Risk Profile

Castle Rock, NSW, is exposed to a range of climate-related risks, including flooding, bushfires, and heatwaves. The suburb's location and topography contribute to its vulnerability to these hazards.

Flooding is a concern due to heavy rainfall events and potential stormwater runoff. The risk is influenced by local drainage infrastructure and the proximity of waterways. Climate change is projected to increase rainfall intensity, potentially exacerbating flood risks.

Bushfire risk is elevated due to the suburb's proximity to bushland areas. Hot, dry conditions and strong winds can create ideal conditions for bushfires to spread rapidly. Residents should be aware of bushfire safety measures and have evacuation plans in place.

Heatwaves are becoming more frequent and intense due to climate change. This poses a significant risk to vulnerable populations, such as the elderly and those with chronic health conditions. It is important to stay hydrated, seek air-conditioned environments, and check on neighbors during heatwaves.

While coastal risks are minimal due to the suburb's inland location, it's important to consider the broader impacts of climate change on the region and the state.

Data sources: BOM · CSIRO · NSW RFS · NSW SES

Local Government Resources

UNKNOWN

Climate StrategyFlood MapsEmergency Services

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the main climate risks facing Castle Rock?

Castle Rock faces risks from flooding, bushfires, and heatwaves. Climate change is expected to increase the frequency and intensity of these events.

How can I prepare my home for a bushfire?

Clear vegetation around your home, maintain firebreaks, and have a bushfire survival plan in place. Check the NSW RFS website for more information.

What should I do during a heatwave?

Stay hydrated, seek air-conditioned environments, and check on vulnerable neighbors. Avoid strenuous activities during the hottest part of the day.

Where can I find information about local flood risks?

Contact the local council or visit their website for flood maps and information about flood management strategies.

How is the council addressing climate change?

The council is developing and implementing a climate strategy to reduce emissions and adapt to the impacts of climate change. Visit their website for more information.

Will climate change affect my property insurance premiums?

Potentially, yes. Insurance premiums may increase in areas that are considered to be at higher risk from climate-related events such as flooding and bushfires. It's best to check with your insurer.

Get your property's risk report

This suburb assessment covers the area. For a precise address-level climate risk report for any specific property in Castle Rock, use our analysis tool.

Analyse a Property in Castle Rock →

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