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Climate Risk Profile: Cawdor, NSW

Cawdor, New South Wales· Camden· 2570
Medium Risk
Updated May 2026

Cawdor faces moderate risks from flooding and heatwaves, with bushfire risk also present. Climate change is expected to exacerbate these risks, particularly increasing the intensity of heatwaves and flooding events.

Overall Risk Score

55/100
Medium

Confidence: Medium

Hazard Breakdown

Flood
6.0
Bushfire
4.0
Heat
7.0
Coastal
1.0

Climate Hazard Breakdown for Cawdor

increasing

Flood

60/100

Cawdor faces a moderate risk of flooding due to its proximity to waterways and low-lying areas. Climate change is expected to increase rainfall intensity, potentially worsening flood events.

Key drivers:

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Proximity to waterways
increasing

Bushfire

40/100

The risk of bushfires in Cawdor is moderate, given the surrounding bushland. Drier conditions and higher temperatures are expected to increase the frequency and intensity of bushfires.

Key drivers:

  • ·Increased temperatures
  • ·Drier conditions
increasing

Heat

70/100

Cawdor is likely to experience more frequent and intense heatwaves. Higher average temperatures can pose health risks, especially for vulnerable populations.

Key drivers:

  • ·Increased greenhouse gas emissions
  • ·Urban heat island effect
stable

Coastal

10/100

Cawdor is not directly exposed to coastal risks. Sea level rise and coastal erosion are not significant concerns for this suburb.

Key drivers:

  • ·Distance from coast
stable

Wind

28/100

Moderate wind risk — East Coast Lows and gust fronts

stable

Storm

39/100

Moderate storm risk — severe thunderstorms and hail

stable

Social

21/100

Moderate social stability — mixed urban density

increasing

Energy

35/100

Moderate energy costs — climate-driven cooling demand

In-Depth Climate Risk Guides for Cawdor

Should I Buy

Property buying guide with climate risk assessment

Flood Risk

Flood zone mapping, historical events, and projections

Bushfire Risk

BAL assessment, vegetation proximity, and fire history

Climate Safety

Multi-hazard safety assessment to 2050

Storm Risk

Severe weather, hail, and wind risk analysis

Heat Risk

Extreme heat days, urban heat island, and cooling costs

Insurance Costs

Premium estimates and insurance availability

Investment Score

Climate-adjusted property investment analysis

Detailed Hazard Analysis

heat Risk

70/100

Cawdor is likely to experience more frequent and intense heatwaves. Higher average temperatures can pose health risks, especially for vulnerable populations.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased greenhouse gas emissions
  • ·Urban heat island effect

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

7.5

2050

8.0

Data source

flood Risk

60/100

Cawdor faces a moderate risk of flooding due to its proximity to waterways and low-lying areas. Climate change is expected to increase rainfall intensity, potentially worsening flood events.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Proximity to waterways
  • ·Urban development

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

6.5

2050

7.0

Data source

coastal Risk

10/100

Cawdor is not directly exposed to coastal risks. Sea level rise and coastal erosion are not significant concerns for this suburb.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Distance from coast

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

1.0

2050

1.0

Data source

bushfire Risk

40/100

The risk of bushfires in Cawdor is moderate, given the surrounding bushland. Drier conditions and higher temperatures are expected to increase the frequency and intensity of bushfires.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased temperatures
  • ·Drier conditions
  • ·Fuel load

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

4.5

2050

5.0

Data source

What This Means for Property Owners

Insurance Outlook

Insurance premiums may increase due to the rising risk of flooding and bushfires.

Price Impact

Properties in flood-prone areas may experience a decrease in value.

Buyer Checklist

  • 1.Check flood maps and bushfire-prone area designations.
  • 2.Assess the property's vulnerability to heatwaves.
  • 3.Ensure adequate insurance coverage.
  • 4.Develop a bushfire survival plan.

Local Climate Evidence

Flood Evidence

Nearest Waterway
Nepean River
Elevation Range
50-80m
Flood Zone
Yes

Cawdor has experienced flooding in the past, particularly along the Nepean River. The council maintains flood maps and provides guidance to residents on flood preparedness.

View council flood map

Bushfire Evidence

Distance to Bushland
Adjacent
Planning Overlay
https://www.rfs.nsw.gov.au/plan-and-prepare/bush-fire-prone-land
Bushfire Prone Area
Yes

Parts of Cawdor are designated as bushfire-prone areas. Residents should maintain their properties to reduce fuel loads and have a bushfire survival plan.

Heat Evidence

Avg January Max Temp
31.5°C
Heat Stress Days/Year
5 days

Cawdor experiences hot summers, with average maximum temperatures in January exceeding 30 degrees Celsius. Heatwaves can pose a significant health risk.

Coastal Evidence

Distance to Coast
60 km
Sea Level Rise Exposure
None
Erosion Risk
None

Historical Climate Events

1967
floodModerate

Major flooding along the Nepean River affected parts of Cawdor.

Source
2001
bushfireModerate

Bushfires in the region threatened properties in Cawdor.

Source
2011
floodModerate

Significant rainfall caused flooding in low-lying areas of Cawdor.

Source
2013
heatwaveModerate

Prolonged heatwave conditions affected Cawdor and surrounding areas.

Source

Climate Outlook to 2050

Projections based on CSIRO and BOM climate modelling. Scenario: RCP8.5

HazardToday20302050
flood606.5(+0.5)7.0(+1.0)
bushfire404.3(+0.3)4.5(+0.5)
heat707.7(+0.7)8.5(+1.5)
coastal101.01.0

By 2030, Cawdor is projected to experience a notable increase in heatwave frequency and intensity, along with a moderate increase in flood risk due to more intense rainfall events. Bushfire risk is also expected to rise slightly.

CSIRO Climate Projections

Adaptation Recommendations

Improve Drainage Infrastructure

Near-term

Upgrade drainage systems to handle increased rainfall intensity and reduce flood risk.

Est. cost: High

Learn more

Implement Heatwave Management Plan

Immediate

Develop a plan to protect vulnerable populations during heatwaves, including establishing cooling centers and providing public awareness campaigns.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Bushfire Risk Reduction

Near-term

Implement measures to reduce bushfire risk, such as controlled burns and vegetation management.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Community Education Programs

Long-term

Conduct community education programs to raise awareness about climate change risks and adaptation measures.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

Promote Water Conservation

Long-term

Encourage water conservation practices to mitigate the impacts of drought and water scarcity.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

About Cawdor's Climate Risk Profile

Cawdor, located in the Macarthur region of New South Wales, is susceptible to several climate-related risks. The primary concerns are flooding due to its proximity to waterways, and increasing heatwave frequency and intensity. Bushfire risk is also a factor, given the surrounding bushland.

Climate change projections indicate that Cawdor will likely experience higher average temperatures and more extreme heat events. This poses a significant risk to vulnerable populations, such as the elderly and those with pre-existing health conditions. Increased rainfall intensity is also expected to worsen flooding events, potentially impacting property and infrastructure.

The local council is developing strategies to mitigate these risks, including improving drainage infrastructure and implementing heatwave management plans. Residents are encouraged to take proactive measures to protect their properties and health, such as maintaining adequate insurance coverage and preparing for extreme weather events.

While Cawdor is not directly exposed to coastal risks, the broader impacts of climate change, such as disruptions to supply chains and increased energy costs, may indirectly affect the suburb. It is crucial for the community to adapt to these changes and build resilience to future climate challenges.

Data sources: BOM · CSIRO · NSW RFS · Camden Council

Local Government Resources

Camden Council

Climate StrategyFlood MapsEmergency Services

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the main climate change risks for Cawdor?

The main climate change risks for Cawdor are increased heatwave frequency and intensity, and increased flood risk due to more intense rainfall events. Bushfire risk is also a concern.

How is the local council addressing climate change risks?

Camden Council is developing strategies to mitigate these risks, including improving drainage infrastructure, implementing heatwave management plans, and promoting community education programs.

What can residents do to prepare for heatwaves?

Residents can prepare for heatwaves by staying hydrated, seeking air-conditioned environments, and checking on vulnerable neighbors. It's also important to have a heatwave survival plan.

How can I find out if my property is in a flood-prone area?

You can check the Camden Council's flood maps to determine if your property is in a flood-prone area. These maps are available on the council's website.

What should I do if a bushfire threatens Cawdor?

If a bushfire threatens Cawdor, follow the advice of emergency services. Have a bushfire survival plan in place and be prepared to evacuate if necessary.

Where can I find more information about climate change projections for the Macarthur region?

You can find more information about climate change projections for the Macarthur region on the CSIRO website and the NSW government's climate change website.

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