Climate Risk Profile for Centennial Park, NSW

Centennial Park, New South Wales· City of Sydney· 2021
Medium Risk
Updated May 2026

Centennial Park faces a moderate climate risk profile, with heat and flooding being the primary concerns. The suburb's urban environment exacerbates the heat island effect, while localized flooding can occur during heavy rainfall. Coastal risks are minimal due to its inland location.

Overall Risk Score

55/100
Medium

Confidence: Medium

Hazard Breakdown

Flood
4.0
Bushfire
3.0
Heat
7.0
Coastal
1.0

Climate Hazard Breakdown for Centennial Park

stable

Flood

40/100

Centennial Park has a moderate risk of flooding due to its proximity to low-lying areas and drainage infrastructure. Localized flooding can occur during heavy rainfall events.

Key drivers:

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Urban development
stable

Bushfire

30/100

Centennial Park has a relatively low bushfire risk due to its urban location and lack of significant bushland within the immediate vicinity. However, ember attack from distant fires remains a potential concern.

Key drivers:

  • ·Proximity to surrounding bushland areas
  • ·Increased frequency of extreme heat days
increasing

Heat

70/100

Centennial Park experiences a high heat risk, particularly during summer months. Urban heat island effect exacerbates the impact of heatwaves, posing health risks to vulnerable populations.

Key drivers:

  • ·Increased frequency and intensity of heatwaves
  • ·Urban heat island effect
stable

Coastal

10/100

Centennial Park has a very low coastal risk due to its distance from the coastline. Sea level rise and coastal erosion are not significant threats to the suburb.

Key drivers:

  • ·Sea level rise
  • ·Storm surge
stable

Wind

28/100

Moderate wind risk — East Coast Lows and gust fronts

stable

Storm

39/100

Moderate storm risk — severe thunderstorms and hail

stable

Social

21/100

Moderate social stability — mixed urban density

increasing

Energy

35/100

Moderate energy costs — climate-driven cooling demand

In-Depth Climate Risk Guides for Centennial Park

Detailed Hazard Analysis

heat Risk

70/100

Centennial Park experiences a high heat risk, particularly during summer months. Urban heat island effect exacerbates the impact of heatwaves, posing health risks to vulnerable populations.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased frequency and intensity of heatwaves
  • ·Urban heat island effect
  • ·Aging population

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

7.5

2050

8.0

Data source

flood Risk

40/100

Centennial Park has a moderate risk of flooding due to its proximity to low-lying areas and drainage infrastructure. Localized flooding can occur during heavy rainfall events.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Urban development
  • ·Aging drainage infrastructure

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

4.5

2050

5.0

Data source

coastal Risk

10/100

Centennial Park has a very low coastal risk due to its distance from the coastline. Sea level rise and coastal erosion are not significant threats to the suburb.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Sea level rise
  • ·Storm surge
  • ·Coastal erosion

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

1.0

2050

1.0

Data source

bushfire Risk

30/100

Centennial Park has a relatively low bushfire risk due to its urban location and lack of significant bushland within the immediate vicinity. However, ember attack from distant fires remains a potential concern.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Proximity to surrounding bushland areas
  • ·Increased frequency of extreme heat days
  • ·Dry vegetation

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

3.2

2050

3.5

Data source

What This Means for Property Owners

Insurance Outlook

Insurance premiums may increase due to flood and heat risks.

Price Impact

Potential for moderate price impact due to increasing climate risks.

Buyer Checklist

  • 1.Check flood history of the property.
  • 2.Assess the property's vulnerability to heat.
  • 3.Inquire about council's climate adaptation plans.
  • 4.Ensure adequate insurance coverage.

Local Climate Evidence

Flood Evidence

Nearest Waterway
Lachlan Swamps
Elevation Range
20-40 meters
Flood Zone
Low to moderate risk areas identified

Localized flooding can occur in low-lying areas during heavy rainfall events. Drainage improvements are ongoing.

View council flood map

Bushfire Evidence

Distance to Bushland
2km to Moore Park
Planning Overlay
Not significantly overlaid
Bushfire Prone Area
No

While not a designated bushfire prone area, ember attack remains a potential concern during severe bushfire events in surrounding regions.

Heat Evidence

Avg January Max Temp
27.5°C
Heat Stress Days/Year
5 days

Centennial Park experiences a pronounced urban heat island effect, particularly during summer heatwaves.

Coastal Evidence

Distance to Coast
3 km
Sea Level Rise Exposure
Minimal exposure
Erosion Risk
No significant erosion risk

Historical Climate Events

1990
floodMinor

Localized flooding occurred in Centennial Park due to heavy rainfall, causing minor property damage.

Source
2011
floodModerate

Significant rainfall event led to flash flooding in low-lying areas of Centennial Park, impacting local businesses and residences.

Source
2013
heatwaveModerate

Prolonged heatwave conditions resulted in increased hospital admissions and strain on local infrastructure.

Source
2019
heatwaveModerate

Record-breaking temperatures during the summer heatwave impacted public health and increased energy demand.

Source

Climate Outlook to 2050

Projections based on CSIRO and BOM climate modelling. Scenario: RCP8.5

HazardToday20302050
flood404.5(+0.5)5.0(+1.0)
bushfire303.2(+0.2)3.5(+0.5)
heat707.8(+0.8)8.5(+1.5)
coastal101.01.0

By 2030, Centennial Park is projected to experience a moderate increase in overall climate risk, primarily driven by rising temperatures and increased rainfall intensity. Heatwaves will become more frequent and intense, while localized flooding is expected to worsen.

CSIRO Climate Projections

Adaptation Recommendations

Increase urban green spaces

Near-term

Plant more trees and create green spaces to reduce the urban heat island effect and provide shade.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Improve drainage infrastructure

Near-term

Upgrade drainage systems to handle increased rainfall intensity and reduce the risk of flooding.

Est. cost: High

Learn more

Develop a heatwave management plan

Immediate

Implement a plan to protect vulnerable populations during heatwaves, including cooling centers and public awareness campaigns.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

Promote water-sensitive urban design

Long-term

Incorporate water-sensitive design principles in new developments to reduce stormwater runoff and improve water quality.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

About Centennial Park's Climate Risk Profile

Centennial Park, located in Sydney's eastern suburbs, is primarily threatened by increasing heat and localized flooding. The urban environment contributes to the urban heat island effect, leading to higher temperatures during heatwaves. This poses a significant risk to vulnerable populations, such as the elderly and those with pre-existing health conditions.

Flooding is a moderate concern, with potential for localized inundation during heavy rainfall events. The suburb's drainage infrastructure may be insufficient to handle increasingly intense rainfall, leading to property damage and disruption.

Bushfire risk is relatively low due to the suburb's urban setting, but ember attack from distant fires remains a possibility. Coastal risks are minimal due to Centennial Park's distance from the coastline.

Climate change projections indicate that heat and flood risks will likely increase in the coming decades. Adaptation measures, such as increasing green spaces and improving drainage infrastructure, are crucial to mitigate these risks and protect the community.

Data sources: BOM · CSIRO · SES NSW · City of Sydney Council

Local Government Resources

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the main climate change risks for Centennial Park?

The primary climate change risks for Centennial Park are increasing heatwaves and localized flooding due to more intense rainfall events. The urban heat island effect exacerbates the impact of heatwaves, while aging drainage infrastructure can contribute to flooding.

How will climate change affect property values in Centennial Park?

Climate change may have a moderate impact on property values in Centennial Park. Properties in low-lying areas prone to flooding may experience a decrease in value, while increased heat risk could also affect buyer demand.

What is the council doing to address climate change in Centennial Park?

The City of Sydney is implementing various climate adaptation measures, including increasing urban green spaces, upgrading drainage infrastructure, and developing a heatwave management plan. They are also promoting water-sensitive urban design to reduce stormwater runoff.

What can residents do to prepare for climate change impacts in Centennial Park?

Residents can prepare for climate change impacts by checking the flood history of their property, assessing their vulnerability to heat, inquiring about council's climate adaptation plans, and ensuring adequate insurance coverage. They can also take steps to reduce their carbon footprint and conserve water.

Where can I find more information about flood risks in Centennial Park?

You can find more information about flood risks in Centennial Park on the City of Sydney's website, including flood maps and information about drainage infrastructure upgrades. You can also contact the council directly for specific inquiries.

Get your property's risk report

This suburb assessment covers the area. For a precise address-level climate risk report for any specific property in Centennial Park, use our analysis tool.

Check Your flood Risk Now

Check Centennial Park's specific flood risk and see how it compares to nearby suburbs. Enter your address for an instant risk assessment.

Free instant previewCSIRO-powered data

What A$69 could save you from

$7.2B
2022 insured disaster losses*
$300B+
climate risk to property by 2050*
30-120%
insurance premium increases in high-risk areas*

*Industry sources: ICA, APRA, RBA

Full report from A$69 · Australian addresses only · 8 hazard scores · Insurance trajectory · 2030 & 2050 projections