Climate Risk Assessment: Central Macdonald, NSW

Central Macdonald, New South Wales
Medium Risk
Updated May 2026

Central Macdonald faces increasing risks from flooding and heatwaves due to climate change. Bushfire risk is moderate and expected to increase. Coastal risks are minimal.

Overall Risk Score

58/100
Medium

Confidence: Medium

Hazard Breakdown

Flood
7.0
Bushfire
4.0
Heat
6.0
Coastal
1.0

Climate Hazard Breakdown for Central Macdonald

increasing

Flood

70/100

Central Macdonald is located in a floodplain area and is susceptible to flooding from the Hawkesbury River. Increased rainfall intensity could worsen flooding.

Key drivers:

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Riverine flooding
increasing

Bushfire

40/100

The area surrounding Central Macdonald has some bushland, posing a moderate bushfire risk. Drier conditions and higher temperatures could increase the frequency and intensity of bushfires.

Key drivers:

  • ·Increased temperatures
  • ·Drier conditions
increasing

Heat

60/100

Central Macdonald is expected to experience more frequent and intense heatwaves. Higher average temperatures can impact vulnerable populations and infrastructure.

Key drivers:

  • ·Increased greenhouse gas emissions
  • ·Urban heat island effect
stable

Coastal

10/100

Central Macdonald is not directly exposed to coastal hazards. Sea level rise and coastal erosion are not significant concerns for this suburb.

Key drivers:

  • ·Distance from coast
  • ·Elevation
stable

Wind

28/100

Moderate wind risk — East Coast Lows and gust fronts

stable

Storm

39/100

Moderate storm risk — severe thunderstorms and hail

stable

Social

21/100

Moderate social stability — mixed urban density

increasing

Energy

35/100

Moderate energy costs — climate-driven cooling demand

In-Depth Climate Risk Guides for Central Macdonald

Detailed Hazard Analysis

heat Risk

60/100

Central Macdonald is expected to experience more frequent and intense heatwaves. Higher average temperatures can impact vulnerable populations and infrastructure.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased greenhouse gas emissions
  • ·Urban heat island effect
  • ·Reduced vegetation cover

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

6.5

2050

7.0

Data source

flood Risk

70/100

Central Macdonald is located in a floodplain area and is susceptible to flooding from the Hawkesbury River. Increased rainfall intensity could worsen flooding.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Riverine flooding
  • ·Inadequate drainage

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

7.5

2050

8.0

Data source

coastal Risk

10/100

Central Macdonald is not directly exposed to coastal hazards. Sea level rise and coastal erosion are not significant concerns for this suburb.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Distance from coast
  • ·Elevation

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

1.0

2050

1.0

Data source

bushfire Risk

40/100

The area surrounding Central Macdonald has some bushland, posing a moderate bushfire risk. Drier conditions and higher temperatures could increase the frequency and intensity of bushfires.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased temperatures
  • ·Drier conditions
  • ·Vegetation density

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

4.5

2050

5.0

Data source

What This Means for Property Owners

Insurance Outlook

Insurance premiums may increase due to flood and bushfire risks.

Price Impact

Property values may be affected by increased flood risk.

Buyer Checklist

  • 1.Check flood maps and insurance costs.
  • 2.Assess bushfire risk and mitigation measures.
  • 3.Consider energy efficiency and cooling options.

Local Climate Evidence

Flood Evidence

Nearest Waterway
Hawkesbury River
Elevation Range
10-20 meters
Flood Zone
Yes

The Hawkesbury River has a history of flooding, and Central Macdonald is located in a known floodplain.

View council flood map

Bushfire Evidence

Distance to Bushland
Adjacent
Planning Overlay
https://www.rfs.nsw.gov.au/
Bushfire Prone Area
Yes

The area is designated as bushfire prone, requiring specific building standards for new constructions.

Heat Evidence

Avg January Max Temp
32.5°C
Heat Stress Days/Year
5 days

Average maximum temperatures in January are expected to increase, leading to more heat stress events.

Coastal Evidence

Distance to Coast
50 km
Sea Level Rise Exposure
Not significant
Erosion Risk
Low

Historical Climate Events

2022
floodMajor

Severe flooding of the Hawkesbury River inundated parts of Central Macdonald, causing significant damage.

Source
2019
bushfireModerate

Bushfires in the region caused smoke haze and required residents to be prepared for evacuation.

Source
2013
floodModerate

Flooding of the Hawkesbury River affected low-lying areas in Central Macdonald.

Source
2017
heatwaveModerate

Prolonged heatwave conditions impacted vulnerable residents.

Source

Climate Outlook to 2050

Projections based on CSIRO and BOM climate modelling. Scenario: RCP8.5

HazardToday20302050
flood707.5(+0.5)8.0(+1.0)
bushfire404.3(+0.3)4.5(+0.5)
heat606.7(+0.7)7.2(+1.2)
coastal101.01.0

By 2030, Central Macdonald is projected to experience increased flood risk and more frequent heatwaves under a high emissions scenario.

CSIRO Climate Projections

Adaptation Recommendations

Improve Flood Defenses

Immediate

Invest in levees and drainage systems to reduce flood risk.

Est. cost: High

Learn more

Bushfire Management

Near-term

Implement vegetation management and community education programs.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Heatwave Preparedness

Immediate

Establish cooling centers and provide support for vulnerable residents.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

Emergency Planning

Near-term

Develop and regularly update emergency response plans.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

About Central Macdonald's Climate Risk Profile

Central Macdonald, located in the Hawkesbury region of New South Wales, is particularly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change, especially flooding. The suburb's proximity to the Hawkesbury River makes it susceptible to riverine flooding, which is expected to worsen with increased rainfall intensity.

Bushfire risk is also a concern, with surrounding bushland posing a moderate threat. Drier conditions and higher temperatures could lead to more frequent and intense bushfires, impacting the community and environment.

Heatwaves are projected to become more frequent and severe, potentially affecting vulnerable populations and straining infrastructure. Residents should prepare for extended periods of high temperatures.

While coastal hazards are not a direct threat, the overall impact of climate change requires proactive adaptation measures to protect the community and its assets. These measures include improving flood defenses, managing bushfire risks, and implementing strategies to mitigate the effects of heatwaves.

Data sources: BOM · CSIRO · NSW SES · NSW RFS

Local Government Resources

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the main climate change risks for Central Macdonald?

The main risks are increased flooding from the Hawkesbury River and more frequent and intense heatwaves.

How can I prepare my home for flooding?

Consider raising your home, installing flood barriers, and ensuring proper drainage.

What should I do during a heatwave?

Stay indoors, drink plenty of water, and use air conditioning or fans to stay cool.

How can I protect my property from bushfires?

Maintain a clear area around your home, install fire-resistant materials, and have a bushfire survival plan.

Where can I find information about emergency services in Central Macdonald?

Visit the NSW State Emergency Service (SES) and NSW Rural Fire Service (RFS) websites for information and resources.

Get your property's risk report

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What A$69 could save you from

$7.2B
2022 insured disaster losses*
$300B+
climate risk to property by 2050*
30-120%
insurance premium increases in high-risk areas*

*Industry sources: ICA, APRA, RBA

Full report from A$69 · Australian addresses only · 8 hazard scores · Insurance trajectory · 2030 & 2050 projections