Climate Risk in Clarence, NSW

Clarence, New South Wales
Medium Risk
Updated Apr 2026

Clarence faces moderate risks from flooding, bushfires, heatwaves, and coastal hazards. Climate change is expected to exacerbate these risks, particularly through increased rainfall intensity, rising temperatures, and sea level rise. Residents should prepare for more frequent and intense extreme weather events.

Overall Risk Score

55/100
Medium

Confidence: Medium

Hazard Breakdown

Flood
6.0
Bushfire
4.0
Heat
7.0
Coastal
5.0

Climate Hazard Breakdown for Clarence

increasing

Flood

60/100

Clarence faces a moderate risk of flooding due to its proximity to waterways and low-lying areas. Increased rainfall intensity and rising sea levels are expected to exacerbate this risk.

Key drivers:

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Sea level rise
increasing

Bushfire

40/100

The risk of bushfires in Clarence is moderate, influenced by surrounding bushland and dry conditions. Climate change is projected to increase the frequency and intensity of bushfire events.

Key drivers:

  • ·Increased temperatures
  • ·Drier conditions
increasing

Heat

70/100

Clarence is likely to experience more frequent and intense heatwaves. Rising temperatures pose a significant risk to vulnerable populations and infrastructure.

Key drivers:

  • ·Rising global temperatures
  • ·Urban heat island effect
increasing

Coastal

50/100

Clarence faces a moderate risk from coastal hazards, including erosion and inundation, due to its proximity to the coast. Sea level rise is expected to worsen these risks.

Key drivers:

  • ·Sea level rise
  • ·Storm surges
stable

Wind

28/100

Moderate wind risk — East Coast Lows and gust fronts

stable

Storm

39/100

Moderate storm risk — severe thunderstorms and hail

stable

Social

21/100

Moderate social stability — mixed urban density

increasing

Energy

35/100

Moderate energy costs — climate-driven cooling demand

In-Depth Climate Risk Guides for Clarence

Detailed Hazard Analysis

heat Risk

70/100

Clarence is likely to experience more frequent and intense heatwaves. Rising temperatures pose a significant risk to vulnerable populations and infrastructure.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Rising global temperatures
  • ·Urban heat island effect

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

7.5

2050

8.0

Data source

flood Risk

60/100

Clarence faces a moderate risk of flooding due to its proximity to waterways and low-lying areas. Increased rainfall intensity and rising sea levels are expected to exacerbate this risk.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Sea level rise
  • ·Urban development

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

6.5

2050

7.0

Data source

coastal Risk

50/100

Clarence faces a moderate risk from coastal hazards, including erosion and inundation, due to its proximity to the coast. Sea level rise is expected to worsen these risks.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Sea level rise
  • ·Storm surges
  • ·Coastal erosion

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

5.5

2050

6.0

Data source

bushfire Risk

40/100

The risk of bushfires in Clarence is moderate, influenced by surrounding bushland and dry conditions. Climate change is projected to increase the frequency and intensity of bushfire events.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased temperatures
  • ·Drier conditions
  • ·Vegetation dryness

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

4.5

2050

5.0

Data source

What This Means for Property Owners

Insurance Outlook

Insurance premiums are likely to increase due to the rising risk of climate-related disasters.

Price Impact

Properties in areas at high risk of flooding or bushfires may experience a decrease in value.

Buyer Checklist

  • 1.Check flood maps and bushfire prone land overlays.
  • 2.Assess the property's vulnerability to heatwaves.
  • 3.Inquire about past flood or bushfire events.
  • 4.Review insurance options and premiums.

Local Climate Evidence

Flood Evidence

Nearest Waterway
Hawkesbury River
Elevation Range
5-20 meters
Flood Zone
Likely

Clarence is located near the Hawkesbury River, making it susceptible to riverine flooding. Historical flood events have caused significant damage in the area.

View council flood map

Bushfire Evidence

Distance to Bushland
Adjacent
Planning Overlay
NSW RFS Bush Fire Prone Land Map
Bushfire Prone Area
Yes

The suburb is adjacent to significant bushland areas, increasing the risk of bushfires. Residents should maintain their properties and be prepared for potential fire events.

Heat Evidence

Avg January Max Temp
30.5°C
Heat Stress Days/Year
3 days

Clarence experiences hot summers, with average maximum temperatures in January exceeding 30 degrees Celsius. Heatwaves can pose a significant risk to vulnerable populations.

Coastal Evidence

Distance to Coast
10 km
Sea Level Rise Exposure
Moderate
Erosion Risk
Low

Historical Climate Events

1990
floodModerate

Major flooding along the Hawkesbury River affected Clarence, causing property damage and displacement of residents.

Source
2002
bushfireModerate

Bushfires in the surrounding areas threatened Clarence, requiring residents to be prepared for evacuation.

Source
2013
floodMinor

Minor flooding occurred in low-lying areas of Clarence due to heavy rainfall.

Source
2019
bushfireMajor

The 2019-2020 bushfires, known as the Black Summer, impacted the region around Clarence, causing significant smoke haze and raising concerns about property damage.

Source

Climate Outlook to 2050

Projections based on CSIRO and BOM climate modelling. Scenario: RCP8.5

HazardToday20302050
flood606.5(+0.5)7.0(+1.0)
bushfire404.5(+0.5)5.0(+1.0)
heat708.0(+1.0)9.0(+2.0)
coastal505.2(+0.2)5.5(+0.5)

By 2030, Clarence is projected to experience a moderate increase in overall climate risk, with notable increases in heatwave frequency and intensity. Flooding and bushfire risks are also expected to rise.

CSIRO Climate Projections

Adaptation Recommendations

Improve Flood Defenses

Near-term

Invest in infrastructure to mitigate flood risks, such as levees, drainage systems, and flood-resistant building designs.

Est. cost: High

Learn more

Enhance Bushfire Preparedness

Near-term

Implement bushfire management strategies, including controlled burns, vegetation clearing, and community education programs.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Develop Heatwave Action Plan

Immediate

Create a heatwave action plan to protect vulnerable populations, including establishing cooling centers and providing public awareness campaigns.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

Plan for Sea Level Rise

Long-term

Develop a coastal management plan to address the impacts of sea level rise, including protecting coastal infrastructure and ecosystems.

Est. cost: High

Learn more

About Clarence's Climate Risk Profile

Clarence is a suburb in New South Wales that is exposed to a range of climate-related risks. Its location near waterways and bushland makes it vulnerable to flooding and bushfires. The increasing frequency and intensity of heatwaves also pose a significant threat to the community.

Climate change projections indicate that these risks will worsen in the coming decades. Rising temperatures, changes in rainfall patterns, and sea level rise are expected to exacerbate existing vulnerabilities. This could lead to increased damage to property, disruption to infrastructure, and negative impacts on human health.

Flooding is a major concern for Clarence, with the potential for significant damage to homes and businesses. Bushfires can also pose a serious threat, particularly during dry periods. Heatwaves can lead to heat stress and other health problems, especially for vulnerable populations such as the elderly and those with chronic illnesses.

Coastal hazards, including erosion and inundation, are also a concern for Clarence. Sea level rise is expected to worsen these risks, potentially leading to the loss of coastal land and infrastructure. It is crucial for residents and local authorities to take proactive steps to adapt to these changing conditions and mitigate the impacts of climate change.

Data sources: BOM · CSIRO · NSW RFS · NSW SES · NSW Department of Planning and Environment

Local Government Resources

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the main climate change risks in Clarence?

Clarence faces risks from flooding, bushfires, heatwaves, and coastal hazards. These risks are expected to increase due to climate change.

How will climate change affect property values in Clarence?

Properties in areas at high risk of flooding or bushfires may experience a decrease in value. Insurance premiums are also likely to increase.

What can I do to prepare for heatwaves in Clarence?

Stay indoors during the hottest part of the day, drink plenty of water, and check on vulnerable neighbors. Consider installing air conditioning or visiting a cooling center.

Where can I find information about flood risks in Clarence?

Contact your local council or the NSW State Emergency Service for information about flood risks and flood maps.

How can I protect my home from bushfires in Clarence?

Maintain your property by clearing vegetation around your home, and have a bushfire survival plan in place. Stay informed about fire danger ratings and warnings.

Get your property's risk report

This suburb assessment covers the area. For a precise address-level climate risk report for any specific property in Clarence, use our analysis tool.

Check Your flood Risk Now

Check Clarence's specific flood risk and see how it compares to nearby suburbs. Enter your address for an instant risk assessment.

Free instant previewCSIRO-powered data

What A$69 could save you from

$7.2B
2022 insured disaster losses*
$300B+
climate risk to property by 2050*
30-120%
insurance premium increases in high-risk areas*

*Industry sources: ICA, APRA, RBA

Full report from A$69 · Australian addresses only · 8 hazard scores · Insurance trajectory · 2030 & 2050 projections