Climate Risk in Coggan, New South Wales

Coggan, New South Wales
Medium Risk
Updated May 2026

Coggan, NSW, faces moderate climate risks, primarily from flooding and heatwaves. Bushfire risk is also a concern. Residents should prepare for more frequent extreme weather events and take steps to mitigate their impact.

Overall Risk Score

58/100
Medium

Confidence: Medium

Hazard Breakdown

Flood
6.5
Bushfire
4.2
Heat
7.0
Coastal
1.5

Climate Hazard Breakdown for Coggan

increasing

Flood

65/100

Coggan faces a moderate risk of flooding, primarily from heavy rainfall events and potential riverine flooding. The risk is expected to increase due to climate change.

Key drivers:

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Changes in river flow patterns
increasing

Bushfire

42/100

The bushfire risk in Coggan is moderate, influenced by surrounding vegetation and dry conditions. Climate change is projected to exacerbate these conditions, leading to a higher frequency and intensity of bushfires.

Key drivers:

  • ·Increased temperatures
  • ·Drier vegetation
increasing

Heat

70/100

Coggan is likely to experience more frequent and intense heatwaves. This poses a significant risk to vulnerable populations, including the elderly and those with pre-existing health conditions.

Key drivers:

  • ·Rising average temperatures
  • ·More frequent heatwave events
stable

Coastal

15/100

Given Coggan's inland location, the risk from coastal hazards such as sea level rise and coastal erosion is very low.

Key drivers:

  • ·Distance from the coast
stable

Wind

28/100

Moderate wind risk — East Coast Lows and gust fronts

stable

Storm

39/100

Moderate storm risk — severe thunderstorms and hail

stable

Social

21/100

Moderate social stability — mixed urban density

increasing

Energy

35/100

Moderate energy costs — climate-driven cooling demand

In-Depth Climate Risk Guides for Coggan

Detailed Hazard Analysis

heat Risk

70/100

Coggan is likely to experience more frequent and intense heatwaves. This poses a significant risk to vulnerable populations, including the elderly and those with pre-existing health conditions.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Rising average temperatures
  • ·More frequent heatwave events
  • ·Urban heat island effect

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

7.5

2050

8.0

Data source

flood Risk

65/100

Coggan faces a moderate risk of flooding, primarily from heavy rainfall events and potential riverine flooding. The risk is expected to increase due to climate change.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Changes in river flow patterns
  • ·Urban development increasing runoff

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

7.0

2050

7.5

Data source

coastal Risk

15/100

Given Coggan's inland location, the risk from coastal hazards such as sea level rise and coastal erosion is very low.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Distance from the coast

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

1.5

2050

1.5

Data source

bushfire Risk

42/100

The bushfire risk in Coggan is moderate, influenced by surrounding vegetation and dry conditions. Climate change is projected to exacerbate these conditions, leading to a higher frequency and intensity of bushfires.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased temperatures
  • ·Drier vegetation
  • ·More frequent heatwaves

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

4.7

2050

5.2

Data source

What This Means for Property Owners

Insurance Outlook

Insurance premiums may increase due to flood and bushfire risks.

Price Impact

Properties in flood-prone areas may experience a decrease in value.

Buyer Checklist

  • 1.Check flood maps and bushfire prone area designations.
  • 2.Assess property's vulnerability to heatwaves.
  • 3.Review insurance options and potential premium increases.
  • 4.Consider long-term climate projections for the area.

Local Climate Evidence

Flood Evidence

Nearest Waterway
Local creeks and streams
Elevation Range
Variable, ranging from 50m to 100m
Flood Zone
Areas near creeks are susceptible to flooding

Historical flood data indicates that some parts of Coggan have experienced flooding in the past.

View council flood map

Bushfire Evidence

Distance to Bushland
Within 2km of bushland areas
Planning Overlay
Check with NSW RFS for bushfire prone area overlay
Bushfire Prone Area
Yes

Properties bordering bushland are at higher risk during bushfire season.

Heat Evidence

Avg January Max Temp
32.5°C
Heat Stress Days/Year
5 days

The number of days exceeding 35°C is projected to increase in the coming years.

Coastal Evidence

Distance to Coast
150 km
Sea Level Rise Exposure
Not applicable due to inland location
Erosion Risk
Not applicable due to inland location

Historical Climate Events

2011
floodModerate

Heavy rainfall caused localized flooding in low-lying areas of Coggan.

Source
2013
bushfireMinor

A small bushfire occurred near Coggan, but was quickly contained by fire services.

Source
2017
heatwaveModerate

Coggan experienced a prolonged heatwave with temperatures exceeding 40°C for several days.

Source
2020
floodModerate

Significant rainfall led to flash flooding in parts of Coggan, impacting local infrastructure.

Source

Climate Outlook to 2050

Projections based on CSIRO and BOM climate modelling. Scenario: RCP4.5

HazardToday2030205020302050
flood656.9(+0.4)7.2(+0.7)7.1(+0.6)7.6(+1.1)
bushfire424.4(+0.2)4.6(+0.4)4.5(+0.3)4.8(+0.6)
heat707.5(+0.5)7.8(+0.8)7.7(+0.7)8.2(+1.2)
coastal151.51.51.51.5

Under a moderate emissions scenario, Coggan is projected to experience a slight increase in overall climate risk, with notable increases in flood and heatwave risks.

CSIRO Climate Projections

Adaptation Recommendations

Improve Flood Defenses

Near-term

Invest in infrastructure to mitigate flood risks, such as improved drainage systems and flood barriers.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Enhance Bushfire Preparedness

Near-term

Implement bushfire management strategies, including controlled burns and community education programs.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Develop Heatwave Action Plan

Immediate

Create a heatwave action plan to protect vulnerable populations during extreme heat events.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

Promote Water Conservation

Long-term

Encourage water conservation measures to reduce the impact of droughts and water scarcity.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

Upgrade Building Standards

Long-term

Implement stricter building codes to ensure new constructions are resilient to climate change impacts.

Est. cost: High

Learn more

About Coggan's Climate Risk Profile

Coggan is a suburb in New South Wales that is increasingly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. The primary risks include flooding from more intense rainfall events, increased frequency and severity of heatwaves, and a moderate risk of bushfires.

The risk of flooding is driven by increased rainfall intensity and changes in river flow patterns. Urban development in the surrounding areas can also exacerbate runoff, increasing the likelihood of flooding. Residents should be aware of flood warnings and have a plan in place to evacuate if necessary.

Heatwaves are becoming more frequent and intense, posing a significant risk to vulnerable populations. It is important to stay hydrated, avoid strenuous activity during the hottest part of the day, and check on elderly neighbors and relatives.

While Coggan is not directly on the coast, the risk of bushfires is still a concern. Residents should maintain their properties to reduce the risk of fire and be aware of bushfire warnings.

Overall, Coggan faces a number of climate-related challenges. By taking steps to prepare for these challenges, residents can protect themselves and their property.

Data sources: BOM · CSIRO · NSW RFS · NSW Government

Local Government Resources

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the main climate change risks in Coggan?

The main climate change risks in Coggan are flooding, heatwaves, and bushfires. These risks are projected to increase in the coming years due to climate change.

How will climate change affect property values in Coggan?

Properties in flood-prone areas may experience a decrease in value. Insurance premiums may also increase due to flood and bushfire risks.

What can I do to prepare for climate change in Coggan?

You can prepare for climate change by checking flood maps and bushfire prone area designations, assessing your property's vulnerability to heatwaves, reviewing insurance options, and considering long-term climate projections for the area.

Where can I find more information about climate change in Coggan?

You can find more information about climate change in Coggan from the local council, the NSW government, and the Bureau of Meteorology.

Is Coggan prepared for increased heatwaves?

Coggan is working to develop a heatwave action plan to protect vulnerable populations during extreme heat events. Residents should stay informed about heatwave warnings and take necessary precautions.

What is the council doing to address climate change?

The council is developing a climate strategy to reduce emissions and adapt to the impacts of climate change. Check the council website for updates.

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What A$69 could save you from

$7.2B
2022 insured disaster losses*
$300B+
climate risk to property by 2050*
30-120%
insurance premium increases in high-risk areas*

*Industry sources: ICA, APRA, RBA

Full report from A$69 · Australian addresses only · 8 hazard scores · Insurance trajectory · 2030 & 2050 projections