Climate Risk in Condell Park, NSW

Condell Park, New South Wales· 2200
Medium Risk
Updated Apr 2026

Condell Park faces moderate climate risks, primarily from flooding and heatwaves. The suburb's proximity to waterways increases its vulnerability to flooding, while rising temperatures are expected to exacerbate heatwave events. Coastal risks are minimal due to its inland location.

Overall Risk Score

55/100
Medium

Confidence: Medium

Hazard Breakdown

Flood
6.0
Bushfire
3.0
Heat
7.0
Coastal
1.0

Climate Hazard Breakdown for Condell Park

increasing

Flood

60/100

Condell Park faces a moderate risk of flooding due to its proximity to the Georges River and other waterways. Climate change is expected to increase rainfall intensity, potentially worsening flood events.

Key drivers:

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Proximity to waterways
stable

Bushfire

30/100

The bushfire risk in Condell Park is relatively low compared to other areas in NSW. However, dry conditions and nearby bushland can still pose a threat during the bushfire season.

Key drivers:

  • ·Dry conditions
  • ·Proximity to bushland
increasing

Heat

70/100

Condell Park is likely to experience more frequent and intense heatwaves due to climate change. This can pose a significant risk to vulnerable populations, such as the elderly and those with chronic health conditions.

Key drivers:

  • ·Rising global temperatures
  • ·Urban heat island effect
stable

Coastal

10/100

Condell Park is located inland and does not face a direct threat from coastal hazards such as sea level rise or coastal erosion.

Key drivers:

  • ·Distance from the coast
stable

Wind

28/100

Moderate wind risk — East Coast Lows and gust fronts

stable

Storm

39/100

Moderate storm risk — severe thunderstorms and hail

stable

Social

21/100

Moderate social stability — mixed urban density

increasing

Energy

35/100

Moderate energy costs — climate-driven cooling demand

In-Depth Climate Risk Guides for Condell Park

Detailed Hazard Analysis

heat Risk

70/100

Condell Park is likely to experience more frequent and intense heatwaves due to climate change. This can pose a significant risk to vulnerable populations, such as the elderly and those with chronic health conditions.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Rising global temperatures
  • ·Urban heat island effect
  • ·Reduced vegetation cover

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

7.5

2050

8.0

Data source

flood Risk

60/100

Condell Park faces a moderate risk of flooding due to its proximity to the Georges River and other waterways. Climate change is expected to increase rainfall intensity, potentially worsening flood events.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Proximity to waterways
  • ·Urban development

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

6.5

2050

7.0

Data source

coastal Risk

10/100

Condell Park is located inland and does not face a direct threat from coastal hazards such as sea level rise or coastal erosion.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Distance from the coast

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

1.0

2050

1.0

Data source

bushfire Risk

30/100

The bushfire risk in Condell Park is relatively low compared to other areas in NSW. However, dry conditions and nearby bushland can still pose a threat during the bushfire season.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Dry conditions
  • ·Proximity to bushland
  • ·Wind patterns

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

3.2

2050

3.5

Data source

What This Means for Property Owners

Insurance Outlook

Insurance premiums may increase in the future due to the rising risk of flooding and heatwaves.

Price Impact

Properties in flood-prone areas may experience a decrease in value as climate risks become more apparent.

Buyer Checklist

  • 1.Check flood maps and historical flood data for the property.
  • 2.Assess the property's vulnerability to heatwaves and consider energy-efficient cooling options.
  • 3.Inquire about the availability and cost of insurance coverage.
  • 4.Review the council's climate adaptation plans and policies.

Local Climate Evidence

Flood Evidence

Nearest Waterway
Georges River
Elevation Range
10-20 meters
Flood Zone
Medium

Historical flood data indicates that parts of Condell Park have experienced flooding in the past. The council has implemented some flood mitigation measures, but further upgrades may be necessary to address future risks.

View council flood map

Bushfire Evidence

Distance to Bushland
1-2 km
Planning Overlay
Some areas bordering bushland are within bushfire prone areas.
Bushfire Prone Area
Yes

While the overall bushfire risk is moderate, residents in areas adjacent to bushland should take precautions during the bushfire season, such as maintaining firebreaks and having a bushfire survival plan.

Heat Evidence

Avg January Max Temp
30.5°C
Heat Stress Days/Year
5 days

The average number of days exceeding 35°C is projected to increase in the coming decades, leading to more frequent and intense heat stress events.

Coastal Evidence

Distance to Coast
25 km
Sea Level Rise Exposure
Not applicable
Erosion Risk
Not applicable

Historical Climate Events

1990
floodModerate

Major flooding along the Georges River affected parts of Condell Park, causing property damage and disruptions to transportation.

Source
2011
floodModerate

Significant rainfall led to flash flooding in some areas of Condell Park, impacting homes and businesses.

Source
2013
heatwaveModerate

A prolonged heatwave resulted in increased hospital admissions and strain on the electricity grid.

Source
2020
floodMinor

Localized flooding occurred due to heavy rainfall, affecting some residential areas.

Source

Climate Outlook to 2050

Projections based on CSIRO and BOM climate modelling. Scenario: RCP8.5

HazardToday20302050
flood606.5(+0.5)7.0(+1.0)
bushfire303.2(+0.2)3.5(+0.5)
heat707.8(+0.8)8.5(+1.5)
coastal101.01.0

By 2030, Condell Park is projected to experience a notable increase in heatwave frequency and intensity, along with a moderate increase in flood risk due to more intense rainfall events. Bushfire risk is expected to remain relatively stable, while coastal risks will remain negligible.

CSIRO Climate Projections

Adaptation Recommendations

Upgrade Flood Defenses

Near-term

Invest in improved drainage systems and levees to mitigate the impact of increased flooding.

Est. cost: High

Learn more

Develop Heat Action Plan

Immediate

Implement a comprehensive heat action plan to protect vulnerable populations during heatwaves, including cooling centers and public awareness campaigns.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Improve Building Standards

Near-term

Update building codes to require new buildings to be more resilient to flooding and heatwaves, including measures such as elevated foundations and energy-efficient cooling systems.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Enhance Bushfire Preparedness

Long-term

Implement community education programs and support residents in preparing their properties for bushfires, including creating firebreaks and developing evacuation plans.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

About Condell Park's Climate Risk Profile

Condell Park, located in New South Wales, is subject to several climate-related risks that are projected to intensify in the coming decades. The most significant threats include increased flooding due to more intense rainfall events and rising heatwave frequency and severity.

The suburb's location near the Georges River makes it susceptible to flooding, particularly during periods of heavy rainfall. Climate change models predict an increase in extreme precipitation events, which could lead to more frequent and severe flooding in Condell Park. This poses a risk to residential and commercial properties, as well as infrastructure.

Rising temperatures are another major concern for Condell Park. As global temperatures continue to climb, the suburb is expected to experience more frequent and intense heatwaves. This can have significant impacts on public health, particularly for vulnerable populations such as the elderly, children, and those with chronic illnesses.

While Condell Park is not directly exposed to coastal hazards, the broader impacts of climate change, such as disruptions to supply chains and increased demand for resources, could still affect the suburb. It is essential for residents and local authorities to take proactive measures to adapt to these changing conditions and mitigate the risks posed by climate change.

Addressing these challenges will require a multi-faceted approach, including investments in flood mitigation infrastructure, implementation of heatwave management plans, and promotion of sustainable urban development practices. By working together, the community can build a more resilient and sustainable future for Condell Park.

Data sources: BOM · CSIRO · NSW State Emergency Service · City of Canterbury Bankstown

Local Government Resources

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the main climate change risks for Condell Park?

The main climate change risks for Condell Park are increased flooding due to more intense rainfall events and more frequent and severe heatwaves.

How will climate change affect property values in Condell Park?

Properties in flood-prone areas may experience a decrease in value as climate risks become more apparent. However, properties that are well-adapted to climate change may retain their value or even increase in value.

What is the council doing to address climate change in Condell Park?

The City of Canterbury Bankstown is developing and implementing climate adaptation plans and policies to reduce the risks posed by climate change. These plans include measures to improve flood defenses, manage heatwaves, and promote sustainable urban development.

What can residents do to prepare for climate change in Condell Park?

Residents can take several steps to prepare for climate change, such as checking flood maps, assessing their property's vulnerability to heatwaves, inquiring about insurance coverage, and reviewing the council's climate adaptation plans.

Where can I find more information about climate change risks in Condell Park?

You can find more information about climate change risks in Condell Park on the websites of the City of Canterbury Bankstown, the NSW State Emergency Service, and the Bureau of Meteorology.

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What A$69 could save you from

$7.2B
2022 insured disaster losses*
$300B+
climate risk to property by 2050*
30-120%
insurance premium increases in high-risk areas*

*Industry sources: ICA, APRA, RBA

Full report from A$69 · Australian addresses only · 8 hazard scores · Insurance trajectory · 2030 & 2050 projections