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Climate Risk Assessment for Conjola, NSW

Conjola, New South Wales
High Risk
Updated May 2026

Conjola is a suburb in New South Wales that faces significant climate risks. The primary concerns are flooding, bushfires, and heatwaves, all of which are projected to worsen in the coming decades. Coastal erosion and inundation also pose a threat due to sea level rise.

Overall Risk Score

72/100
High

Confidence: Medium

Hazard Breakdown

Flood
8.5
Bushfire
7.8
Heat
6.5
Coastal
6.0

Climate Hazard Breakdown for Conjola

increasing

Flood

85/100

Conjola faces a high risk of flooding due to its proximity to Conjola Lake and low-lying areas. Intense rainfall events can lead to significant inundation.

Key drivers:

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Sea level rise
increasing

Bushfire

78/100

The area surrounding Conjola is prone to bushfires, particularly during dry and windy conditions. The risk is exacerbated by the presence of dense vegetation.

Key drivers:

  • ·Increased frequency of heatwaves
  • ·Drier vegetation
increasing

Heat

65/100

Conjola experiences moderately high temperatures during summer, with potential for heatwaves. This poses a risk to vulnerable populations.

Key drivers:

  • ·Rising global temperatures
  • ·Urban heat island effect
increasing

Coastal

60/100

Conjola faces coastal risks including erosion and inundation due to sea level rise. The proximity to Conjola Lake and the ocean makes it vulnerable.

Key drivers:

  • ·Sea level rise
  • ·Increased storm surge
stable

Wind

40/100

Moderate wind risk — East Coast Lows and gust fronts

stable

Storm

55/100

Moderate storm risk — severe thunderstorms and hail

stable

Social

30/100

Moderate social stability — mixed urban density

increasing

Energy

50/100

Moderate energy costs — climate-driven cooling demand

In-Depth Climate Risk Guides for Conjola

Should I Buy

Property buying guide with climate risk assessment

Flood Risk

Flood zone mapping, historical events, and projections

Bushfire Risk

BAL assessment, vegetation proximity, and fire history

Climate Safety

Multi-hazard safety assessment to 2050

Storm Risk

Severe weather, hail, and wind risk analysis

Heat Risk

Extreme heat days, urban heat island, and cooling costs

Insurance Costs

Premium estimates and insurance availability

Investment Score

Climate-adjusted property investment analysis

Detailed Hazard Analysis

heat Risk

65/100

Conjola experiences moderately high temperatures during summer, with potential for heatwaves. This poses a risk to vulnerable populations.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Rising global temperatures
  • ·Urban heat island effect

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

7.0

2050

7.5

Data source

flood Risk

85/100

Conjola faces a high risk of flooding due to its proximity to Conjola Lake and low-lying areas. Intense rainfall events can lead to significant inundation.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Sea level rise
  • ·Inadequate drainage infrastructure

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

8.8

2050

9.2

Data source

coastal Risk

60/100

Conjola faces coastal risks including erosion and inundation due to sea level rise. The proximity to Conjola Lake and the ocean makes it vulnerable.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Sea level rise
  • ·Increased storm surge
  • ·Erosion

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

6.3

2050

6.7

Data source

bushfire Risk

78/100

The area surrounding Conjola is prone to bushfires, particularly during dry and windy conditions. The risk is exacerbated by the presence of dense vegetation.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased frequency of heatwaves
  • ·Drier vegetation
  • ·Stronger winds

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

8.1

2050

8.5

Data source

What This Means for Property Owners

Insurance Outlook

Premiums are likely to increase due to climate risks.

Price Impact

Property values may be negatively impacted in high-risk areas.

Buyer Checklist

  • 1.Check flood maps and bushfire-prone area designations.
  • 2.Assess the property's vulnerability to coastal erosion.
  • 3.Inquire about past flood or bushfire events.
  • 4.Consider the cost of insurance and potential increases.
  • 5.Evaluate the property's energy efficiency and cooling options.

Local Climate Evidence

Flood Evidence

Nearest Waterway
Conjola Lake
Elevation Range
0-10 meters
Flood Zone
Yes

Low-lying areas around the lake are most vulnerable.

View council flood map

Bushfire Evidence

Distance to Bushland
Adjacent
Planning Overlay
https://www.rfs.nsw.gov.au/plan-and-prepare/bush-fire-prone-land
Bushfire Prone Area
Yes

The western and northern parts of Conjola are particularly exposed.

Heat Evidence

Avg January Max Temp
28.5°C
Heat Stress Days/Year
3 days

Heatwaves are becoming more frequent and intense.

Coastal Evidence

Distance to Coast
1 km
Sea Level Rise Exposure
Moderate
Erosion Risk
Moderate

Historical Climate Events

2019
bushfireMajor

The 2019-2020 bushfires significantly impacted the region, causing widespread damage and evacuations.

Source
2016
floodModerate

Heavy rainfall caused flooding in low-lying areas around Conjola Lake.

Source
2013
bushfireModerate

Bushfires threatened properties in the area, requiring firefighting efforts.

Source
2020
floodModerate

Heavy rainfall and flooding impacted Conjola, causing road closures and property damage.

Source

Climate Outlook to 2050

Projections based on CSIRO and BOM climate modelling. Scenario: RCP8.5

HazardToday20302050
flood858.8(+0.3)9.1(+0.6)
bushfire788.2(+0.4)8.5(+0.7)
heat656.7(+0.2)7.0(+0.5)
coastal606.1(+0.1)6.3(+0.3)

By 2030, Conjola is projected to experience an increase in the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events, particularly floods and bushfires. Heatwaves will also become more common, posing a greater risk to public health.

CSIRO Climate Projections

Adaptation Recommendations

Improve Drainage Infrastructure

Near-term

Upgrade drainage systems to better manage increased rainfall and reduce flood risk.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Implement Bushfire Management Strategies

Immediate

Conduct regular hazard reduction burns and maintain firebreaks to reduce bushfire risk.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Develop a Heatwave Management Plan

Near-term

Establish cooling centers and provide public education on heatwave safety.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

Protect Coastal Areas

Long-term

Implement coastal protection measures such as seawalls and beach nourishment to mitigate erosion.

Est. cost: High

Learn more

Community Education Programs

Near-term

Educate residents about climate risks and adaptation measures.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

About Conjola's Climate Risk Profile

Conjola, located in New South Wales, is increasingly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. The suburb's low-lying geography and proximity to Conjola Lake and the coast make it particularly susceptible to flooding and coastal erosion.

Bushfire risk is also a major concern, with the surrounding bushland creating a high-risk environment during dry periods. The combination of increased temperatures and drier conditions is expected to exacerbate bushfire frequency and intensity.

Heatwaves are becoming more common and severe, posing a threat to the health and well-being of residents, especially the elderly and those with pre-existing health conditions. The urban heat island effect can further amplify these risks.

Sea level rise is another significant threat, potentially leading to increased coastal erosion and inundation of low-lying areas. This could have significant impacts on property values and infrastructure. Adaptation measures are crucial to mitigate these risks and protect the community.

Data sources: BOM · CSIRO · NSW RFS · NSW Department of Planning and Environment

Local Government Resources

Shoalhaven City Council

Climate StrategyFlood MapsEmergency Services

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the main climate change risks in Conjola?

The main risks are flooding, bushfires, heatwaves, and coastal erosion due to sea level rise.

How is the council preparing for climate change?

The Shoalhaven City Council is developing and implementing climate adaptation strategies to address these risks.

What can residents do to prepare for floods?

Residents should have an emergency plan, know their flood risk, and ensure they have adequate insurance coverage.

How can I protect my home from bushfires?

Clear vegetation around your home, maintain firebreaks, and have a bushfire survival plan.

Where can I find information about emergency services in Conjola?

Information about emergency services can be found on the NSW Emergency Services website.

What is the projected sea level rise in Conjola by 2050?

Sea level rise is projected to increase, potentially impacting low-lying coastal areas. Check the NSW Government's climate change website for specific projections.

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What A$69 could save you from

$7.2B
2022 insured disaster losses*
$300B+
climate risk to property by 2050*
30-120%
insurance premium increases in high-risk areas*

*Industry sources: ICA, APRA, RBA

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Climate Risk in Conjola Nsw, NSW: 2026 Assessment | ClimateNest