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Climate Risk in Coomba Bay, New South Wales

Coomba Bay, New South Wales· MidCoast· 2428
Medium Risk
Updated May 2026

Coomba Bay faces moderate climate risks, primarily from flooding and coastal hazards due to its proximity to Wallis Lake. Residents should prepare for increasing heatwaves and potential bushfire risks.

Overall Risk Score

52/100
Medium

Confidence: Medium

Hazard Breakdown

Flood
6.5
Bushfire
4.0
Heat
5.0
Coastal
5.3

Climate Hazard Breakdown for Coomba Bay

increasing

Flood

65/100

Coomba Bay is susceptible to flooding due to its low-lying areas and proximity to Wallis Lake. Heavy rainfall events can lead to inundation of properties and infrastructure.

Key drivers:

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Sea level rise
stable

Bushfire

40/100

The area surrounding Coomba Bay has some bushfire risk due to nearby vegetation. While not as high as other regions, residents should remain vigilant, especially during dry periods.

Key drivers:

  • ·Dry vegetation
  • ·High temperatures
increasing

Heat

50/100

Coomba Bay experiences moderately high temperatures during summer. Climate change is expected to increase the frequency and intensity of heatwaves, posing a risk to vulnerable populations.

Key drivers:

  • ·Rising global temperatures
  • ·Urban heat island effect
increasing

Coastal

53/100

Located near Wallis Lake, Coomba Bay is vulnerable to coastal erosion and sea level rise. This can impact property values and infrastructure over time.

Key drivers:

  • ·Sea level rise
  • ·Storm surges
stable

Wind

28/100

Moderate wind risk — East Coast Lows and gust fronts

stable

Storm

39/100

Moderate storm risk — severe thunderstorms and hail

stable

Social

21/100

Moderate social stability — mixed urban density

increasing

Energy

35/100

Moderate energy costs — climate-driven cooling demand

In-Depth Climate Risk Guides for Coomba Bay

Should I Buy

Property buying guide with climate risk assessment

Flood Risk

Flood zone mapping, historical events, and projections

Bushfire Risk

BAL assessment, vegetation proximity, and fire history

Climate Safety

Multi-hazard safety assessment to 2050

Storm Risk

Severe weather, hail, and wind risk analysis

Heat Risk

Extreme heat days, urban heat island, and cooling costs

Insurance Costs

Premium estimates and insurance availability

Investment Score

Climate-adjusted property investment analysis

Detailed Hazard Analysis

heat Risk

50/100

Coomba Bay experiences moderately high temperatures during summer. Climate change is expected to increase the frequency and intensity of heatwaves, posing a risk to vulnerable populations.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Rising global temperatures
  • ·Urban heat island effect

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

5.5

2050

6.0

Data source

flood Risk

65/100

Coomba Bay is susceptible to flooding due to its low-lying areas and proximity to Wallis Lake. Heavy rainfall events can lead to inundation of properties and infrastructure.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Sea level rise
  • ·Inadequate drainage

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

7.0

2050

7.5

Data source

coastal Risk

53/100

Located near Wallis Lake, Coomba Bay is vulnerable to coastal erosion and sea level rise. This can impact property values and infrastructure over time.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Sea level rise
  • ·Storm surges
  • ·Erosion

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

5.8

2050

6.3

Data source

bushfire Risk

40/100

The area surrounding Coomba Bay has some bushfire risk due to nearby vegetation. While not as high as other regions, residents should remain vigilant, especially during dry periods.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Dry vegetation
  • ·High temperatures
  • ·Wind

Projections (RCP4.5)

2030

4.2

2050

4.5

Data source

What This Means for Property Owners

Insurance Outlook

Insurance premiums may increase due to flood and coastal risks.

Price Impact

Properties in high-risk areas may experience price reductions.

Buyer Checklist

  • 1.Check flood maps and historical flood data.
  • 2.Assess bushfire risk and implement mitigation measures.
  • 3.Obtain adequate insurance coverage.
  • 4.Consider long-term climate change impacts.

Local Climate Evidence

Flood Evidence

Nearest Waterway
Wallis Lake
Elevation Range
0-10 meters
Flood Zone
Low-lying areas near Wallis Lake

Historical flood events have impacted properties along the lake foreshore.

View council flood map

Bushfire Evidence

Distance to Bushland
Adjacent to bushland reserves
Planning Overlay
Refer to NSW RFS bushfire prone land maps
Bushfire Prone Area
Yes

Properties bordering bushland are at higher risk.

Heat Evidence

Avg January Max Temp
30.5°C
Heat Stress Days/Year
3 days

Elderly residents are particularly vulnerable during heatwaves.

Coastal Evidence

Distance to Coast
0.5 km
Sea Level Rise Exposure
Properties close to Wallis Lake are exposed to sea level rise.
Erosion Risk
Erosion is evident along some sections of the lake foreshore.

Historical Climate Events

2013
floodModerate

Heavy rainfall caused flooding in low-lying areas of Coomba Bay, impacting several properties.

Source
2019
bushfireModerate

Bushfires in the region caused smoke haze and increased fire danger in Coomba Bay.

Source
2020
floodModerate

Significant rainfall led to localized flooding and road closures in the area.

Source
2017
stormMinor

A severe storm caused minor damage to property and infrastructure in Coomba Bay.

Source

Climate Outlook to 2050

Projections based on CSIRO and BOM climate modelling. Scenario: RCP8.5

HazardToday20302050
flood657.0(+0.5)7.5(+1.0)
bushfire404.2(+0.2)4.4(+0.4)
heat505.3(+0.3)5.6(+0.6)
coastal535.7(+0.4)6.1(+0.8)

By 2030, Coomba Bay is projected to experience increased flooding and coastal erosion due to rising sea levels and more intense rainfall events. Heatwaves will become more frequent and severe, posing risks to public health.

CSIRO Climate Projections

Adaptation Recommendations

Improve Drainage Infrastructure

Near-term

Upgrade drainage systems to handle increased rainfall and reduce flood risk.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Strengthen Coastal Defenses

Long-term

Implement coastal protection measures to mitigate erosion and sea level rise impacts.

Est. cost: High

Learn more

Develop Heatwave Management Plan

Immediate

Create a plan to protect vulnerable residents during heatwaves, including cooling centers and community outreach programs.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

Bushfire Risk Reduction

Near-term

Implement bushfire mitigation measures, such as vegetation management and community education programs.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Raise Awareness

Immediate

Educate the community about climate risks and adaptation strategies.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

About Coomba Bay's Climate Risk Profile

Coomba Bay, located in the MidCoast region of New South Wales, is exposed to a range of climate-related risks. The primary concerns are flooding from heavy rainfall and rising sea levels, as well as coastal erosion impacting properties near Wallis Lake.

Bushfire risk is present due to surrounding vegetation, requiring residents to stay informed and prepared, especially during the hotter months. Heatwaves are also a growing concern, with increasing temperatures posing health risks to vulnerable individuals.

Climate change projections indicate that these risks will intensify in the coming decades. Increased rainfall intensity will exacerbate flooding, while sea level rise will further threaten coastal areas. Proactive adaptation measures are essential to protect the community and its assets.

Residents should stay informed about local emergency plans and take steps to prepare their properties for potential climate impacts. This includes maintaining adequate insurance coverage and implementing measures to reduce flood and bushfire risks.

Data sources: BOM · CSIRO · NSW SES · NSW RFS · MidCoast Council

Local Government Resources

MidCoast Council

Climate StrategyFlood MapsEmergency Services

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the main climate risks in Coomba Bay?

The main climate risks in Coomba Bay are flooding, coastal erosion, heatwaves, and bushfire risk.

How will climate change affect property values in Coomba Bay?

Properties in high-risk areas may experience price reductions due to increased flood and coastal risks.

What can I do to prepare my property for flooding?

You can raise the elevation of your property, install flood barriers, and ensure adequate drainage.

Where can I find information about bushfire risk in Coomba Bay?

You can find information about bushfire risk on the NSW Rural Fire Service website.

How can I stay safe during a heatwave?

Stay indoors in air-conditioned environments, drink plenty of water, and avoid strenuous activity.

What is the council doing to address climate change?

MidCoast Council is developing and implementing climate adaptation strategies to reduce the impacts of climate change on the community.

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