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Climate Risk in Coopers Gully, NSW

Coopers Gully, New South Wales· Mid-Coast Council
Medium Risk
Updated May 2026

Coopers Gully faces moderate risks from flooding, bushfires, heatwaves, and coastal hazards. Climate change is expected to exacerbate these risks, particularly through increased rainfall intensity, hotter temperatures, and sea level rise. Residents should prepare for more frequent and intense extreme weather events.

Overall Risk Score

52/100
Medium

Confidence: Medium

Hazard Breakdown

Flood
6.5
Bushfire
4.0
Heat
6.0
Coastal
4.3

Climate Hazard Breakdown for Coopers Gully

increasing

Flood

65/100

Coopers Gully faces a moderate risk of flooding due to its proximity to waterways and low-lying areas. Climate change is expected to increase rainfall intensity, exacerbating flood risk.

Key drivers:

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Sea level rise
increasing

Bushfire

40/100

The area around Coopers Gully has a moderate bushfire risk due to surrounding vegetation. Hotter, drier conditions are expected to increase the frequency and intensity of bushfires.

Key drivers:

  • ·Increased temperatures
  • ·Drier conditions
increasing

Heat

60/100

Coopers Gully is likely to experience more frequent and intense heatwaves. This poses a risk to vulnerable populations, such as the elderly and those with chronic health conditions.

Key drivers:

  • ·Increased greenhouse gas emissions
  • ·Urban heat island effect
increasing

Coastal

43/100

Coopers Gully faces a moderate risk from coastal hazards due to sea level rise and storm surges. This could lead to erosion and inundation of low-lying areas.

Key drivers:

  • ·Sea level rise
  • ·Increased storm intensity
stable

Wind

28/100

Moderate wind risk — East Coast Lows and gust fronts

stable

Storm

39/100

Moderate storm risk — severe thunderstorms and hail

stable

Social

21/100

Moderate social stability — mixed urban density

increasing

Energy

35/100

Moderate energy costs — climate-driven cooling demand

In-Depth Climate Risk Guides for Coopers Gully

Should I Buy

Property buying guide with climate risk assessment

Flood Risk

Flood zone mapping, historical events, and projections

Bushfire Risk

BAL assessment, vegetation proximity, and fire history

Climate Safety

Multi-hazard safety assessment to 2050

Storm Risk

Severe weather, hail, and wind risk analysis

Heat Risk

Extreme heat days, urban heat island, and cooling costs

Insurance Costs

Premium estimates and insurance availability

Investment Score

Climate-adjusted property investment analysis

Detailed Hazard Analysis

heat Risk

60/100

Coopers Gully is likely to experience more frequent and intense heatwaves. This poses a risk to vulnerable populations, such as the elderly and those with chronic health conditions.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased greenhouse gas emissions
  • ·Urban heat island effect

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

6.5

2050

7.0

Data source

flood Risk

65/100

Coopers Gully faces a moderate risk of flooding due to its proximity to waterways and low-lying areas. Climate change is expected to increase rainfall intensity, exacerbating flood risk.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased rainfall intensity
  • ·Sea level rise
  • ·Urban development

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

7.0

2050

7.5

Data source

coastal Risk

43/100

Coopers Gully faces a moderate risk from coastal hazards due to sea level rise and storm surges. This could lead to erosion and inundation of low-lying areas.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Sea level rise
  • ·Increased storm intensity

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

4.8

2050

5.3

Data source

bushfire Risk

40/100

The area around Coopers Gully has a moderate bushfire risk due to surrounding vegetation. Hotter, drier conditions are expected to increase the frequency and intensity of bushfires.

Primary Drivers

  • ·Increased temperatures
  • ·Drier conditions
  • ·Fuel load

Projections (RCP8.5)

2030

4.5

2050

5.0

Data source

What This Means for Property Owners

Insurance Outlook

Insurance premiums are likely to increase due to the increasing risk of climate-related events.

Price Impact

Properties in high-risk areas may experience a decrease in value due to climate change impacts.

Buyer Checklist

  • 1.Check flood maps and bushfire prone area designations.
  • 2.Assess the property's vulnerability to heatwaves.
  • 3.Consider the potential impact of sea level rise and storm surges.
  • 4.Obtain adequate insurance coverage.

Local Climate Evidence

Flood Evidence

Nearest Waterway
Unnamed Creek
Elevation Range
5-20 meters
Flood Zone
Likely

The area has experienced minor flooding in the past, with potential for more significant events in the future.

View council flood map

Bushfire Evidence

Distance to Bushland
Adjacent
Planning Overlay
RFS Bush Fire Prone Land
Bushfire Prone Area
Yes

The area is designated as bushfire prone, requiring specific building standards for new construction.

Heat Evidence

Avg January Max Temp
31.5°C
Heat Stress Days/Year
3 days

Heatwaves can pose a significant risk to vulnerable residents, particularly during the summer months.

Coastal Evidence

Distance to Coast
15 km
Sea Level Rise Exposure
Low
Erosion Risk
Low

Historical Climate Events

2013
floodModerate

Heavy rainfall caused localized flooding in low-lying areas.

Source
2019
bushfireMajor

Bushfires impacted the region, causing property damage and evacuations.

Source
2017
heatwaveModerate

A prolonged heatwave resulted in increased hospital admissions.

Source
2020
stormMinor

A severe storm caused power outages and minor property damage.

Source

Climate Outlook to 2050

Projections based on CSIRO and BOM climate modelling. Scenario: RCP8.5

HazardToday20302050
flood657.0(+0.5)7.5(+1.0)
bushfire404.3(+0.3)4.7(+0.7)
heat606.7(+0.7)7.2(+1.2)
coastal434.5(+0.2)4.8(+0.5)

By 2030, Coopers Gully is projected to experience a moderate increase in overall climate risk, with notable increases in heatwave frequency and intensity. Flooding and bushfire risks are also expected to rise.

CSIRO Climate Projections

Adaptation Recommendations

Improve Flood Defenses

Near-term

Construct levees and improve drainage systems to reduce flood risk.

Est. cost: High

Learn more

Bushfire Management

Near-term

Implement vegetation management programs and create firebreaks to reduce bushfire risk.

Est. cost: Medium

Learn more

Heatwave Preparedness

Immediate

Develop a heatwave preparedness plan and establish cooling centers for vulnerable residents.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

Coastal Protection

Long-term

Implement coastal protection measures such as seawalls and beach nourishment to mitigate coastal erosion and inundation.

Est. cost: Very High

Learn more

Community Education

Immediate

Educate residents about climate change risks and adaptation measures.

Est. cost: Low

Learn more

About Coopers Gully's Climate Risk Profile

Coopers Gully, located in New South Wales, is susceptible to a range of climate-related hazards. The primary concerns are flooding due to its proximity to waterways, bushfires due to surrounding vegetation, heatwaves, and coastal hazards.

Flooding is a significant risk, with potential for increased rainfall intensity leading to more frequent and severe flood events. Bushfire risk is also elevated, with hotter and drier conditions increasing the likelihood of fires. Heatwaves pose a threat to vulnerable populations, and coastal hazards such as sea level rise and storm surges could impact low-lying areas.

Climate change projections indicate that these risks will intensify in the coming decades. Residents should take steps to prepare for these changes, including implementing flood mitigation measures, managing vegetation to reduce bushfire risk, and developing heatwave preparedness plans. Coastal properties may require additional protection against erosion and inundation.

Understanding the specific risks and taking proactive measures can help to protect lives and property in Coopers Gully. Staying informed about weather forecasts and emergency warnings is also crucial.

Data sources: BOM · CSIRO · NSW RFS · Mid-Coast Council

Local Government Resources

Mid-Coast Council

Climate StrategyFlood MapsEmergency Services

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the main climate change risks in Coopers Gully?

The main risks are flooding, bushfires, heatwaves, and coastal hazards.

How will climate change affect property values in Coopers Gully?

Properties in high-risk areas may experience a decrease in value.

What can I do to prepare for heatwaves?

Stay hydrated, seek air-conditioned environments, and check on vulnerable neighbors.

Where can I find information about flood risks in Coopers Gully?

You can find flood maps and information on the Mid-Coast Council website.

How can I reduce my bushfire risk?

Maintain your property by clearing vegetation and creating firebreaks.

Is Coopers Gully likely to experience more extreme weather events in the future?

Yes, climate change projections indicate an increase in the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events.

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